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大地震発生時における緊急車両活動支援に関する研究

大地震应急车辆活动保障研究

基本信息

批准号：
16J01284
负责人：
廣川典昭
金额：
$ 0.83万
依托单位：
Tokyo Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2016-04-22 至 2018-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

大地震時の同時多発火災への対応は深刻な課題であり，焼失被害を低減するためには，延焼危険性の高い火災を特定し，優先的に延焼阻止を行うことが重要である。しかし，出火現象の確率的な揺らぎ等により，発生した火災の“相対的な延焼危険性（優先順位）”を把握することは容易ではない。加えて，大地震時には同時多発火災だけでなく，道路閉塞や断水等の市街地被害が複雑に絡み合うため，有効な消防活動戦略を検討することは困難であった。そこで本研究では，まず，大地震時における緊急車両活動（特に消防活動）戦略を評価するためのシミュレーションモデルの構築を行った。次に，構築したシミュレーションシステムを用いて有効な消防活動戦略を探索的に検討した。本年度は，特に，断水シミュレーションモデルの構築と，“相対的な延焼危険性”の統計的な予測に基づく出場先決定戦略の提案と検証を行った。従来の断水シミュレーションモデルでは，配水管網の構造が考慮されておらず，給水地点から遠ざかるにつれて，断水率が過小に推定される可能性があった。そこで本研究では，配水管の特徴量等に基づく破損確率モデルと，破損した配水管を配水不能とした際の到達可能性解析に基づく，断水シミュレーションモデルを構築し，配水管網上での連続的な断水現象を表現可能とした。さらに，同時多発火災時の出場先決定の問題では，建物単位の延焼危険性指標と出火確率に基づき，“相対的な延焼危険性”を統計的に予測する手法を構築した。この成果により，これまで困難であった，時間差をもって発生する火災への対応が可能となった。加えて，予測結果に基づき即時出場することが可能なため，延焼阻止に失敗する可能性も低減される。このように，本研究で構築したシミュレーションモデルによって，効果的な消防活動戦略を探索的に検証することが可能となった。

At the same time, there are many fires in the event of a large earthquake, such as deep problems, loss of victims, low-risk, high-risk and specific fires, and early delays to prevent traffic accidents. If you are in a bad situation, if you are in a position to make sure that you are sure of the rate of fire, you will find that it is easy to make sure that it is easy to make sure that it is easy to make a mistake. At the same time, during the massive earthquake, many fire accidents occurred at the same time, roads were blocked and water was cut off, and the streets and streets of the city were killed, and there were fire control activities, fire fighting activities, fire prevention and emergency activities. In the course of this study, emergency and emergency activities (special fire-fighting activities) during a major earthquake were carried out. For the second time, you can use a lot of information about the exploration of fire-fighting activities. This year, in particular, the water cut-off situation is in full swing. According to the statistics of the current situation, we have decided to make a strategic proposal. The water cut-off rate is much higher than that of the water supply system, the distribution pipe system, the water distribution system, the water supply location, the water cut-off rate, the probability of water cut-off, the possibility of water cut-off, water cut-off rate, water cut-off In this study, the basic data such as the special quantity of the water distribution pipe, the failure rate of the water distribution system, the failure rate of the water distribution system, the possibility of water distribution, the failure rate of the water distribution system, the special quantity of the water distribution pipe, and so on, the failure rate of the water distribution system, the failure rate of the water distribution system, the failure rate of the water distribution system, the failure rate of the water distribution system, and so on, the failure rate of the connection on the distribution pipe shows that it is possible to achieve the possibility. At the same time, when there is a lot of fire at the same time, the problem is decided first, and the safety of the building location refers to the basic limit of the fire detection rate, and the prediction method of the statistics of "phase delay hazard". If the results are not good, you may not be able to do so, but you may not be able to do so when you are in a bad situation. Add the check, and the result is that the key will be available immediately, so that the possibility of failure will be reduced. In this study, the results of this study show that the results of the fire protection activities may be affected by the exploration of fire protection activities.