Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Biogeography

物种分布模型（SDM）是保护和规划的重要工具，但它们假设环境变量（例如温度）是唯一的控制分布，而历史因素，如扩散限制和系统发育生态位保守性，也很重要。贝叶斯层次模型（BHM）将被构建，以共同估计扩散的历史，生态位的演变，并为每个物种在一个进化枝现今的SDM。将使用澳大利亚分支（例如青蛙）和模拟，对照传统的SDM对BHM进行测试。BHM将促进对物种和生物地理学如何共同进化的科学理解，并为稀有、数据匮乏或气候变化的物种的预测提供实际改进。

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are crucial tools for conservation and planning, but they assume that environmental variables (e.g. temperature) are the only controls on distributions, when historical factors, like dispersal limitation and phylogenetic niche conservatism, are also important. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) will be constructed to jointly estimate dispersal history, niche evolution, and present-day SDMs for each species in a clade. BHMs will be tested against traditional SDMs using Australian clades (e.g. frogs) and simulations. BHMs will advance scientific understanding of how species and biogeography coevolve and provide practical improvements in predictions for species that are rare, data-poor, or in changed climates.