Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Biogeography

物种分布模型(SDMS)是保护和规划的重要工具，但它们假定环境变量(如温度)是唯一控制分布的因素，而历史因素，如扩散限制和系统发育生态位保守性也是重要的。将构建一个贝叶斯层次模型(BHM)，以联合估计一个支系中每个物种的扩散历史、生态位进化和现在的SDMS。BHM将使用澳大利亚分支(例如青蛙)和模拟来与传统的SDMS进行测试。BHMS将促进对物种和生物地理如何协同进化的科学理解，并在对稀有、数据匮乏或气候变化的物种的预测方面提供实际改进。

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are crucial tools for conservation and planning, but they assume that environmental variables (e.g. temperature) are the only controls on distributions, when historical factors, like dispersal limitation and phylogenetic niche conservatism, are also important. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) will be constructed to jointly estimate dispersal history, niche evolution, and present-day SDMs for each species in a clade. BHMs will be tested against traditional SDMs using Australian clades (e.g. frogs) and simulations. BHMs will advance scientific understanding of how species and biogeography coevolve and provide practical improvements in predictions for species that are rare, data-poor, or in changed climates.