気候変動と土地利用変化を考慮したダム開発の河川水文や地形への影響評価

考虑气候变化和土地利用变化评估大坝开发对河流水文和地形的影响

• 批准号: 18F18049
• 负责人: 鼎 信次郎
• 金额: $ 1.47万
• 依托单位: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2018-07-25 至 2021-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18F18049/
• 关键词: dams; predict erosion; sediment transport; Godavari River; Downstream Erosion; Climate Change; SWAT; dam-related erosion; sediment yield; river erosion; climate change

The purpose of this study is to develop an empirical method that can quantitatively predict riverbed changes caused by dams based on observation data obtained over a wide area, and to clarify whether the magnitude of the impact of dams on the downstream riverbed changes with climate change. The Godavari River in India, where there are many large dams and where hydrological data are available, was selected as the target area.In Saigon, Kumhari, Nowrangpur, etc., the results agreed well with those predicted by existing analytical methods, while in Dhalegaon, Bamini, Jagdalpur, etc., the results suggested a short cycle of erosion and recovery of the riverbed, contrary to the results of analytical methods.The results of reproducing, predicting, and evaluating the riverbed changes by applying past climatic conditions and future climate change scenarios showed that the model can adequately represent the riverbed changes. As for the future projections, the results showed that it is necessary to use several CMIP5 models to make appropriate projections, considering the uncertainty.Even if warming is moderate, dam construction is expected to increase the rate of riverbed erosion under climate change, and rapid warming is expected to increase the frequency of floods and further accelerate erosion.These results are significant not only because they show that the empirical model of this study is capable of making appropriate predictions, but also because they quantitatively show how dam construction will affect the riverbed under warming conditions.

本研究的目的是开发一种经验方法，可以定量预测大坝引起的河床变化的基础上，在广泛的区域获得的观测数据，并澄清大坝对下游河床的影响的大小是否随气候变化而变化。选定印度的戈达瓦里河为目标区域，因为那里有许多大型水坝，而且有水文数据。结果与现有分析方法预测的结果一致，而在Dhalegaon，Bamini，Jagdalpur等，结果表明，该模型能较好地反映黄河河床的变化，并能较好地模拟黄河河床的变化。对于未来的预测，结果表明，考虑到不确定性，有必要使用几个CMIP5模型进行适当的预测。即使变暖是温和的，在气候变化下，大坝建设预计会增加河床侵蚀的速度，快速变暖预计会增加洪水的频率，进一步加速侵蚀。这些结果是重要的，不仅因为它们表明，这项研究的模型能够做出适当的预测，而且还因为它们定量地显示了在变暖条件下大坝建设将如何影响河床。

项目成果

Predicting dam‐related downstream geomorphic response with widely available stream gauge data: A case study of the Godavari River Basin, India

利用广泛可用的流量计数据预测与大坝相关的下游地貌响应：印度戈达瓦里河流域的案例研究

• DOI: 10.1111/sjtg.12323
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Sanyal Joy;Dasgupta Priyanka;Kanae Shinjiro
• 通讯作者: Kanae Shinjiro

Examining the downstream geomorphic impact of a large dam under climate change

研究气候变化下大坝对下游地貌的影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2020.104850
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: CATENA
• 影响因子: 6.2
• 作者: Sanyal Joy;Wesley Lauer J.;Kanae Shinjiro
• 通讯作者: Kanae Shinjiro

Reassessment of Reservoir Sedimentation Rates Under Monsoon Climate with Combined Optical and Microwave Remote Sensing

光学和微波遥感相结合的季风气候下水库沉积率的再评估

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: J. Sanyal;S. Kanae;J. Sanyal
• 通讯作者: J. Sanyal

Validating an Analytical Framework for Predicting Dam-Related Downstream Geomorphic Impacts in The Godavari River Basin, India

验证用于预测印度戈达瓦里河流域与大坝相关的下游地貌影响的分析框架

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: J. Sanyal;S. Kanae
• 通讯作者: S. Kanae

Impact of different types of meteorological data inputs on predicted hydrological and erosive responses to projected land use change

不同类型的气象数据输入对预计土地利用变化的水文和侵蚀响应的影响

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: J. Sanyal;S. Kanae;J. Sanyal;Joy Sanyal
• 通讯作者: Joy Sanyal