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Dynamics of Tropical Cyclones

热带气旋的动力学

基本信息

批准号：
55211730
负责人：
Professor Dr. Roger K. Smith, Ph.D.
金额：
--
依托单位：
Meteorologisches Institut
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2006-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/55211730?language=en
关键词：
Dynamics Tropical Cyclones

项目摘要

This proposal aims to develop a deeper understanding of certain fundamental dynamical aspects of tropical cyclones, with special emphasis on the factors that determine their intensity and size. The approach will be based on the analysis of (mostly idealized) simulations using several numerical models, some relatively simple and others more sophisticated. The study will include an analysis of prominent storms with extreme sizes, such as Tropical Cyclone Tracy, an intense midget storm that devastated the Australian city of Darwin in 1974, and Hurricane Sandy, a less intense storm, but one with an enormous radius of strong winds that reeked havoc with a large area of the northeastern seaboard United States in 2012. At present, there is little understanding of the factors that determine the size of individual storms, but work already initiated during the earlier stage of the project points to a way forward in attacking this problem. A part of the study will investigate the possibility of a hypothetical steady-state storm; an approach that we believe may hold the key to answering several questions about tropical-cyclone size in general. An important question to be addressed is whether there is a mechanism for limiting the size of storms so that a steady state can be achieved in principle. The knowledge gained from the analyses can be expected to flow on to improved forecasts and it has also the potential to lead to an improved method for assessing the potential intensity of storms.

这项建议旨在加深对热带气旋某些基本动力方面的了解，特别强调决定其强度和大小的因素。该方法将基于对使用几个数值模型的(主要是理想化的)模拟的分析，其中一些相对简单，另一些则更复杂。这项研究将包括对规模极大的著名风暴的分析，比如1974年摧毁澳大利亚达尔文市的热带气旋特蕾西(Tracy)和飓风桑迪(Sandy)。前者强度较小，但在2012年给美国东北部沿海的大片地区造成了严重破坏。目前，人们对决定单个风暴大小的因素知之甚少，但在该项目的早期阶段已经开始的工作指出了解决这一问题的前进方向。这项研究的一部分将调查假设的稳态风暴的可能性；我们认为，这种方法可能是回答有关热带气旋大小的几个问题的关键。需要解决的一个重要问题是，是否有一种机制来限制风暴的大小，以便在原则上实现稳定状态。从分析中获得的知识可望用于改进预报，也有可能改进评估风暴潜在强度的方法。