Estimation of Traffic Accident Injury Cost for Level 5 Autonomous Vehicles

采用车辆库存周转模型评估了到2050年日本轻型车队中5级自动驾驶汽车的普及情况。车辆库存周转模型提供了有关5级自动驾驶汽车在车辆库存中所占份额的时间演变和年行驶距离的信息。该模型采用了一种“银弹”方法，即在30年的技术推广期结束时，普遍采用5级自动驾驶汽车。在5级自动驾驶汽车扩散开始之前，微观交通模拟被用来确定交通事故发生的基线，重点是两辆车之间的追尾交通事故。这些模拟可以得到交通事故的特征。

A vehicle stock turnover model was used to assess the diffusion of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the Japanese light-duty vehicle fleet until 2050. The vehicle stock turnover model provides information regarding the evolution in time of the share of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the vehicle stock and the annual traveled distance. The model uses a ‘silver bullet’ approach, where Level 5 autonomous vehicles are universally adopted at the end of a technology diffusion span of 30 years.Microscopic traffic simulations are being used to determine the baseline for traffic accident occurrence before the start of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion, focusing on rear-end traffic accidents between two vehicles. Characteristics of the traffic accidents can be obtained from these simulations.