Estimation of Traffic Accident Injury Cost for Level 5 Autonomous Vehicles

使用车辆库存周转模型来评估日本轻型车辆车队中5级自动驾驶车辆的扩散，直到2050年。车辆库存周转率模型提供了关于车辆库存中5级自动驾驶车辆份额的时间演变和年行驶距离的信息。该模型采用“银弹”方法，即在30年的技术扩散期结束时普遍采用5级自动驾驶汽车。在5级自动驾驶汽车扩散开始之前，使用微观交通模拟来确定交通事故发生的基线，重点关注两辆汽车之间的追尾交通事故。从这些模拟中可以得到交通事故的特征。

A vehicle stock turnover model was used to assess the diffusion of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the Japanese light-duty vehicle fleet until 2050. The vehicle stock turnover model provides information regarding the evolution in time of the share of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the vehicle stock and the annual traveled distance. The model uses a ‘silver bullet’ approach, where Level 5 autonomous vehicles are universally adopted at the end of a technology diffusion span of 30 years.Microscopic traffic simulations are being used to determine the baseline for traffic accident occurrence before the start of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion, focusing on rear-end traffic accidents between two vehicles. Characteristics of the traffic accidents can be obtained from these simulations.