Estimation of Traffic Accident Injury Cost for Level 5 Autonomous Vehicles

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A vehicle stock turnover model was used to assess the diffusion of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the Japanese light-duty vehicle fleet until 2050. The vehicle stock turnover model provides information regarding the evolution in time of the share of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the vehicle stock and the annual traveled distance. The model uses a ‘silver bullet’ approach, where Level 5 autonomous vehicles are universally adopted at the end of a technology diffusion span of 30 years.Microscopic traffic simulations are being used to determine the baseline for traffic accident occurrence before the start of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion, focusing on rear-end traffic accidents between two vehicles. Characteristics of the traffic accidents can be obtained from these simulations.