Uncertainty analysis for Predicting Environmental Fate and Exposure of Chemicals

通过本研究，我们得到了以下结果。(L)基于环境化学物质浓度的多元分析方法，明确了控制水和沉积物中化学物质浓度水平的主导变量。利用这些结果，我们展示了从生产量和化学品的物理化学性质来估算环境浓度的可能性。(2)为了减少现象建模过程中的不确定性，我们开发了流域建模工具。利用贝叶斯理论，明确了与化学品归宿和暴露预测相关的优先参数。(3)利用流域建模工具，在实际流域环境中估计了降低与化学品归宿和暴露相关的不确定性的效益。

Through this study, we have obtained following results.(l)Based on the method of multivariate analysis on the ambient environmental concentration of chemicals, we clarified the dominant variables that governs the level of the concentration in the water and sediment. Using this results, we showed the possibility for estimating ambient environmental concentration in terms of production volume and physicochemical properties of chemicals.(2) We have developed watershed modeling tool with the purpose of the reduction of the uncertainty coming from the modeling process of phenomena. Employing the theory of Bayes', we clarified the priority parameters that related to the prediction of fate and exposure of chemicals.(3)Using watershed modeling tool, the benefit of the reduction of the uncertainty associated with fate and exposure of chemicals were estimated at the real watershed environment.