Coping with Compounding Risk and Uncertainty: A Longitudinal Study of Cascading Collective Stress in a Probability-Based-US Sample

应对复合风险和不确定性：基于概率的美国样本中级联集体压力的纵向研究

• 批准号: 2242591
• 负责人: Roxane Silver
• 金额: $ 125.21万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-06-15 至 2026-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2242591&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coping; Compounding; Risk; Uncertainty; Longitudinal

Since 2020, when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic began, Americans have been coping with a seemingly endless series of escalating stressors, including inflation and economic instability, social unrest, extreme partisanship, climate-related disasters (e.g., flooding, hurricanes, wildfires), global instability (e.g., war in Ukraine), and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Such compounding or cascading collective stress/traumas are threats experienced by large groups of people that are often transmitted via the media to people geographically distal to the event. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of U.S. residents. The long-term emotional, cognitive, and behavioral implications of these compounding exposures over time remain unknown. In 2020 this research team initiated a study among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 U.S. residents from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel at the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and respondents were assessed four times over 3 years. Using this preexisting sample, this new project continues to examine how people respond when exposed to compounding collective stressors while simultaneously coping with individual-level stress and trauma. Four additional surveys (Spring 2023, 2024, 2025, and immediately after a yet unknown collective trauma) and a randomized experiment assess respondents' psychological (e.g., cognitive and affective risk perception, emotions) and behavioral (e.g., protective and prosocial behavior) responses to the compounding crises that occur during the project period. Specifically, in collaboration with NORC, this project seeks to follow a nationally representative probability-based sample of 6,500 pre-recruited participants. Panelists provided mental and physical health data before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Initial data for this project were collected in March-April 2020 during the early weeks of the pandemic in the U.S.; respondents have been surveyed four times in the 3 years prior to this new research. Four additional surveys and a randomized experiment assess respondents' psychological (e.g., cognitive and affective risk perception, emotions) and behavioral (e.g., protective and prosocial behavior) responses to compounding collective crises that occur during the project period. This project examines variability in exposure and response to stress and trauma by accounting for both direct and media-based exposures to individual-level and collective traumas over time. Surveys assess exposure to compounding and cascading collective traumas, co-occurring individual acute and chronic stress, risk perceptions, media use, emotional responses, and self-protective behaviors over 3 years. The project has three aims: (1) Examine how exposure to compounding collective traumas since early 2020 (e.g., pandemic, climate disasters) is associated with psychological (e.g., distress, world views, cognitive and affective risk perceptions) and behavioral (e.g., protective behaviors, civic engagement) responses; (2) Examine whether exposure to individual trauma (lifetime, recent) moderates the association between compounding collective trauma exposure and psychological/behavioral responses, and (3) Examine whether degree of personal stress related to collective stressors moderates the impact of compounding collective trauma exposure on psychological/behavioral responses.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

自2020年COVID-19大流行开始以来，美国人一直在应对一系列看似无穷无尽的不断升级的压力因素，包括通货膨胀和经济不稳定、社会动荡、极端党派偏见、气候相关灾害（例如，洪水、飓风、野火），全球不稳定（例如，乌克兰战争），以及对负责保护公众的科学和社会机构的信心不足。这种复合或级联的集体压力/创伤是一大群人所经历的威胁，往往通过媒体传播给地理上远离事件的人。直接和基于媒体的接触这些前所未有的级联集体创伤可能会对美国居民的身心健康产生深远的影响。长期的情绪，认知和行为的影响，这些复合暴露随着时间的推移仍然未知。2020年，该研究团队在COVID-19大流行初期对来自NORC AmeriSpeak小组的超过6，500名美国居民进行了一项基于概率的大型全国代表性样本研究，并在3年内对受访者进行了四次评估。使用这个预先存在的样本，这个新项目继续研究人们在面对复合集体压力源时的反应，同时应对个人层面的压力和创伤。另外四项调查（2023年春季，2024年，2025年，以及在一次未知的集体创伤之后）和一项随机实验评估了受访者的心理（例如，认知和情感风险感知，情绪）和行为（例如，保护和亲社会行为）对项目期间发生的复合危机的反应。 具体而言，与NORC合作，该项目旨在跟踪具有全国代表性的6，500名预先招募的参与者的基于概率的样本。小组成员提供了COVID-19大流行开始前的心理和身体健康数据。该项目的初始数据于2020年3月至4月在美国大流行的最初几周收集;在这项新研究之前的三年里，受访者接受了四次调查。另外四项调查和一项随机实验评估了受访者的心理（例如，认知和情感风险感知，情绪）和行为（例如，保护和亲社会行为）对项目期间发生的复合集体危机的反应。本项目通过解释个人层面和集体创伤的直接和基于媒体的暴露，研究暴露和对压力和创伤的反应的变化。调查评估暴露于复合和级联集体创伤，共同发生的个人急性和慢性压力，风险认知，媒体使用，情绪反应和自我保护行为超过3年。该项目有三个目标：（1）研究自2020年初以来如何暴露于复合集体创伤（例如，流行病，气候灾害）与心理（例如，痛苦、世界观、认知和情感风险感知）和行为（例如，保护行为、公民参与）的反应;（2）检查是否暴露于个体创伤（终生，近期）调节复合集体创伤暴露与心理/行为反应之间的关联，以及（3）检查与集体压力源相关的个人压力程度是否会调节复合集体创伤暴露对心理/行为反应。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。