Spatio-temporal Methods for Surveillance of the Opioid Syndemic

阿片类药物综合征的时空监测方法

• 批准号: 10160550
• 负责人: Staci Hepler
• 金额: $ 38.75万
• 依托单位: WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10160550
• 关键词: Accounting; Achievement; Address; Admission activity; Area; Biological Models; Characteristics; Code; Collaborations; Communicable Diseases; Communities; County; Data; Data Sources; Development; Elements; Emergency medical service; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Goals; HIV; HIV Infections; HIV/HCV; Health; Health Policy; Hepatitis C; Human; Individual; Infection; Infrastructure; Link; Measurement; Measures; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Ohio; Opioid; Outcome; Overdose; Population; Population Surveillance; Prevalence; Property; Public Health; Resources; Risk; Science; Services; Source; Statistical Methods; Statistical Models; Structural Models; Structure; Surveillance Methods; Surveillance Modeling; System; Time; United States; United States Dept. of Health and Human Services; Work; experience; improved; meetings; model development; multiple data sources; novel; opioid epidemic; opioid misuse; overdose death; social structure; spatiotemporal; surveillance data

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The United States is in the midst of a public health crisis due to the ongoing opioid syndemic. The opioid syndemic consists of the inter-related epidemics of opioid misuse, fatal and non-fatal overdose, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and hepatitis C (HCV). The consequences of opioid misuse are particularly severe in Ohio as the state has experienced overdose rates that are double the national average as well as elevated risk for epidemic levels of HIV and HCV. A key need for addressing the syndemic is to improve surveillance science methodology to better measure community-levels of opioid misuse and be able to identify and target areas of emerging risk with resources. However, no single data source currently observed by the public health surveillance system fully characterizes opioid misuse at relevant spatial and temporal supports. Novel statistical methods are needed to better leverage existing data and appropriately integrate multiple imperfect surveillance outcomes across different spatial scales to comprehensively estimate levels of opioid misuse and model the syndemic over space and time. Doing so will enable estimation and inference at small areas that are relevant to local policymakers and public health officials while accounting for measurement error. There are several methodological challenges that will be overcome with achievement of the following aims: 1) develop and assess a spatio-temporal factor model that estimates a factor that can be meaningfully interpreted longitudinally, 2) develop and assess a spatial factor model that allows for outcomes to have different spatial supports, and 3) develop and assess a multivariate spatio- temporal model to estimate areal prevalence of latent opioid misuse. Successful development of a comprehensive model of the opioid syndemic will advance surveillance science and will produce estimates of opioid misuse that advance epidemiological understanding and provide valuable information to policymakers and public health officials.

项目摘要/摘要 由于正在进行的阿片类合成性，美国正处于公共卫生危机之中。 由阿片类药物，致命和非致命过量的人类免疫效率的相关发作 病毒（HIV）和丙型肝炎（HCV）。阿片类药物滥用的后果在俄亥俄州特别严重，因为 州经历了过量率，是全国平均平均水平的两倍，流行病的风险升高 艾滋病毒和HCV水平。解决该集团的关键需求是改善监视科学方法论 更好地衡量阿片类药物的社区级别，并能够识别和针对新兴风险的领域 使用资源。但是，公共卫生监视系统目前没有完全观察到的单一数据源 在相关的空间和临时支撑物中表征阿片类药物的小姐。需要新颖的统计方法 更好地利用现有数据，并适当整合了多个不完美的监视结果 空间尺度以全面估计阿片类药物的水平水平，并在时空上建模辛迪科。 这样做将在与当地决策者和公众相关的小领域估算和推断 在考虑测量误差的同时，健康状况。有几个方法论挑战将 通过实现以下目的来克服：1）开发和评估时空因子模型 这估计了一个可以有意义地纵向解释的因素，2）开发和评估空间因素 允许结果具有不同空间支持的模型，3）开发和评估多元空间 - 成功发展全面的 Ooid联合性的模型将进步监视科学，并将产生OID滥用的估计值 这种提高流行病学理解，并向政策制定者和公共卫生提供有价值的信息 官员。