DECIPHER: Decision-making framework and processes for holistic evaluation of environmental and climate policies.

气候变化和生物多样性双重危机迫切需要实施包容、公正和有效的政策，而其千丝万缕的性质要求采取综合评估方法，以实现协同增效和权衡取舍。目前用于评估环境政策的主流经济方法未能反映气候-生物多样性-经济关系的复杂性。尽管不确定性、破坏性和不可逆转性是环境挑战所固有的，但在设计和评估政策绩效时，这些都被忽视了。政策评估不包括政策有效性和对其他影响领域的复原力，如生活质量、金融稳定、政治可行性、创新。相反，政策评估是以一套狭隘的指标为依据的，没有涵盖对可持续性和福祉的更广泛考虑。Decpher采用系统和多学科方法，使用一套不同的模型、方法和程序，以显著改善关于气候变化和生物多样性的决策，并增强政策的复原力和可行性。我们将超越最先进的水平，建立一个全面和可操作的决策框架，将先进的经济和生物物理模型、经验方法和利益攸关方参与工具整合在一起。该框架将环境损害纳入到代理人的经济决策中，并引入了风险-机会方法进行决策。为了提供对系统动力学和风险的关键见解，开发的模型将配备创新功能，包括改进的代理人行为表示、技术创新、金融风险评估以及评估极端事件和关键临界点的能力。新的决策框架将是与利益攸关方反复共同创建过程的最终结果，并在现实世界条件下应用于欧盟旗舰政策的评估。

The dual climate change and biodiversity crises put an urgency for implementing inclusive, just, and effective policies, while their inextricable nature calls for integrated assessment approaches that capture synergies and trade-offs. Mainstream economic methods currently used in the appraisal of environmental policies fail to capture the complexity of the climate-biodiversity-economy nexus. Even though uncertainty, disruption, and irreversibility are inherent to environmental challenges, these are overlooked when designing and evaluating the performance of policies. Policy effectiveness and resilience against other impact areas, such as quality of life, financial stability, political feasibility, innovation is not included in policy appraisal. Rather, policy evaluation is informed by a narrow set of metrics, falling short of encompassing broader considerations of sustainability and wellbeing. DECIPHER employs a systems and multidisciplinary approach using a diverse set of models, methods, and processes to significantly improve decision-making on climate change and biodiversity and enhance policy resilience and feasibility. Moving beyond state-of-the-art, we will establish a holistic and operational decision-making framework that integrates advanced economic and biophysical models, empirical methods and stakeholder participation tools. The novel framework incorporates environmental damages in the economic decisions of agents and introduces a risk-opportunity approach for decision making. To offer critical insights on system dynamics and risks, the models developed will be equipped with innovative features including improved representations of agent behavior, technology innovation, financial risk valuation and the capacity to assess extreme events and critical tipping points. The new decision-making framework will be the end-result of an iterative co-creation process with stakeholders and applied under real-world conditions in the assessment of flagship EU policies.