Predictive ApproacHes fOr SafEr UrBan Environments

所有道路使用者都需要更安全的城市环境，以确保实现欧洲到2030年将道路伤亡人数减半的目标。在城市环境中，随着新的交通运输形式和微型机动车进入系统，易受伤害的道路使用者需要得到特别关注。现有的交通模拟模型允许测试交通状况的变化，但通常以车辆和行驶时间为重点，不能衡量弱势道路使用者和道路安全的具体结果。城市管理部门和交通管理人员将受益于预测工具，这些工具可以预测这些变化及其对道路安全，流动性和可持续交通的影响，并支持相关的政策，监管和消费者响应。更安全城市环境预测方法项目（PHOEBE）将超越最先进的水平，提供一个跨学科的解决方案，将交通模拟、道路安全评估、人类行为、模式转换和诱导需求建模以及新兴的移动和远程信息处理数据整合到一个协调的、前瞻性的道路安全评估框架中。将能够评估新的条件和移动解决方案，并测试安全系统解决方案。PHOEBE框架、软件模块和知识产品将允许进行动态安全预测和社会经济评价，这种评价是以证据为基础的，并模拟未来的情景和影响。简单有效的可视化和社会经济建模将为政策决策和投资提供信心。在制定和部署该框架时，将征求欧盟各地城市管理部门的意见。该框架的可行性将在雅典（GR），瓦伦西亚（ES）和西米德兰兹（英国）的三个用例中进行演示，这些用例被选中以最大限度地利用现有的基础流量模型，潜在影响并确保解决方案的未来可扩展性和可移植性。

Safer urban environments are needed for all road users to ensure the European targets to halve road deaths and injuries by 2030 are met. Vulnerable road users require specific attention in an urban environment that is subject to constant change as new forms of transport and micro-mobility enter the system. Existing traffic simulation models allow changes in traffic conditions to be tested but are often vehicle and travel time focused and do not measure detailed outcomes specific to vulnerable road users and road safety. City administrations and transport managers will benefit from predictive tools that allow these changes and their implications for road safety, mobility, and sustainable transport to be anticipated, and support the associated policy, regulatory and consumer response. The Predictive Approaches for Safer Urban Environments project (PHOEBE) will move beyond the state of the art and deliver an interdisciplinary solution that will integrate traffic simulation, road safety assessment, human behaviour, mode shift and induced demand modelling and new and emerging mobility and telematics data into a harmonised, prospective assessment framework for road safety. New conditions and mobility solutions will be able to be assessed and safe system solutions tested. The PHOEBE framework, software module and knowledge products will allow dynamic safety prediction and socioeconomic evaluation that is evidence-based and simulates future scenarios and impacts. Simple and effective visualisation and socioeconomic modelling will provide the confidence for policy decisions and investment. City administrations across EU will be consulted as the framework is developed and deployed. The feasibility of the framework will be demonstrated in three use cases in Athens (GR), Valencia (ES) and West Midlands (UK), which have been selected to maximise the use of existing base traffic models, potential impact and to ensure the future scalability and transferability of the solution.