TRANSCEND: Transformational and robust adaptation to water scarcity and climate change under deep uncertainty

“在世界范围内，水资源管理日益受到水资源短缺和气候变化的挑战，这可能通过反馈回路和跨系统的级联影响引发和加剧其他生态（如害虫）和社会经济威胁（如商品价格波动）。在这方面，未来规划充满了不确定性，传统的决策方法和政策不足以应对。TRANSCEND的目标是确定和促进采用转型适应政策（TAP）来应对水资源短缺，包括创新的分配系统和经济手段，这些政策是强大的，能够适应不确定性和变化，同时实现公平和可持续的经济增长和福利。为此，TRANSCEND将开发一个突破性的创新生态系统，结合三个关键支柱：（i）利益相关者参与和知识共享的知识网络，（ii）整合跨学科社会生态科学和集合预测的可操作建模套件，以指导TAP设计，以及（iii）支持TAP实践中实施和执行的会计和监控工具箱。TRANSCEND将在7个实验室应用创新生态系统来设计和实施TAP：Júcar River Basin（RB）（西班牙）;里诺RB（意大利）; Tympaki RB（希腊）; Nitra RB（斯洛伐克）;卡普利纳-毛里-德萨瓜德罗RB（秘鲁、智利和玻利维亚）; Orontes RB（黎巴嫩、叙利亚和土耳其）和Mahanadi RB（印度恰蒂斯加尔和奥里萨邦）。TRANSCEND将利用这一多样化的示范者，在8个以上的灵感实验室中启动创新生态系统的采用，培训160多名转型代理人，并将不确定性分析纳入主要国家和欧洲绿色交易战略的主流。这将提供知识和工具，促进全球水资源短缺和气候变化的稳健和系统性转变，并为到2030年在100多个流域采用TAP提供明确的影响途径。

“Worldwide, water resources management is increasingly challenged by water scarcity and climate change, which can trigger and aggravate other ecological (e.g. pests) and socioeconomic threats (e.g. commodity price fluctuations) via feedback loops and cascading impacts across systems. In this context, planning for the future is rife with uncertainties for which conventional decision-making methods and policies are inadequate. The objective of TRANSCEND is to identify and catalyze the adoption of Transformational Adaptation Policies (TAP) to water scarcity, including innovative allocation systems and economic instruments, that are robust and adaptable to uncertainty and change, while simultaneously achieving equitable and sustainable economic growth and welfare. To this end, TRANSCEND will develop a groundbreaking ecosystem of innovation that combines three key pillars: (i) a knowledge network for stakeholder engagement and knowledge sharing, (ii) an actionable modeling suite that integrates interdisciplinary socio-ecological science and ensemble forecasting to guide TAP design, and (iii) an accounting and monitoring toolbox that supports implementation and enforcement of TAP in practice. TRANSCEND will apply the ecosystem of innovation to design and implement TAP in 7 labs: Júcar River Basin (RB) (Spain); Reno RB (Italy); Tympaki RB (Greece); Nitra RB (Slovakia); Caplina-Mauri-Desaguadero RB (Peru, Chile & Bolivia); Orontes RB (Lebanon, Syria & Turkey); and Mahanadi RB (Indian states of Chhattisgarh & Odisha). TRANSCEND will leverage this diverse set of demonstrators to initiate adoption of the ecosystem of innovation in 8+ inspiration labs, train 160+ transformation agents, and mainstream uncertainty analysis in key national and European Green Deal strategies. This will provide the knowledge and tools to catalyze robust and systemic transformations to water scarcity and climate change globally, with a clear impact pathway towards TAP adoption in 100+ basins by 2030.”