TRANSCEND: Transformational and robust adaptation to water scarcity and climate change under deep uncertainty

“在全球范围内，水资源管理日益受到缺水和气候变化的挑战，这可能会引发和加剧其他生态威胁(例如有害生物)和社会经济威胁(例如商品价格波动)，从而在整个系统中产生反馈循环和连锁影响。在这种情况下，对未来的规划充满了不确定性，传统的决策方法和政策不足以应对这些不确定性。Transcend的目标是确定和推动通过适应水资源短缺的变革性适应政策，包括创新的分配制度和经济工具，这些政策是强有力的，能够适应不确定性和变化，同时实现公平和可持续的经济增长和福利。为此，Transcend将开发一个突破性的创新生态系统，它结合了三个主要支柱：(I)利益攸关方参与和知识共享的知识网络；(Ii)整合跨学科社会生态科学和总体预测以指导TAP设计的可操作的建模套件；以及(Iii)支持TAP在实践中实施和执行的会计和监测工具箱。Transcend将应用创新生态系统在7个实验室设计和实施TAP：Júcar河流域(RB)(西班牙)；Reno RB(意大利)；Tympaki RB(希腊)；Nitra RB(斯洛伐克)；Caplina-Mauri-Desaguadero RB(秘鲁、智利和玻利维亚)；Orontes RB(黎巴嫩、叙利亚和土耳其)；Mahanadi RB(印度恰蒂斯加尔邦和奥迪沙邦)。Transcend将利用这组不同的演示者，在8个以上的灵感实验室中启动采用创新生态系统，培训160多个转型代理，并将不确定性分析纳入国家和欧洲关键绿色交易战略的主流。这将提供知识和工具，以促进针对全球水资源短缺和气候变化的强有力和系统性的转变，并为到2030年在100多个流域采用水龙头提供一条明确的影响途径。

“Worldwide, water resources management is increasingly challenged by water scarcity and climate change, which can trigger and aggravate other ecological (e.g. pests) and socioeconomic threats (e.g. commodity price fluctuations) via feedback loops and cascading impacts across systems. In this context, planning for the future is rife with uncertainties for which conventional decision-making methods and policies are inadequate. The objective of TRANSCEND is to identify and catalyze the adoption of Transformational Adaptation Policies (TAP) to water scarcity, including innovative allocation systems and economic instruments, that are robust and adaptable to uncertainty and change, while simultaneously achieving equitable and sustainable economic growth and welfare. To this end, TRANSCEND will develop a groundbreaking ecosystem of innovation that combines three key pillars: (i) a knowledge network for stakeholder engagement and knowledge sharing, (ii) an actionable modeling suite that integrates interdisciplinary socio-ecological science and ensemble forecasting to guide TAP design, and (iii) an accounting and monitoring toolbox that supports implementation and enforcement of TAP in practice. TRANSCEND will apply the ecosystem of innovation to design and implement TAP in 7 labs: Júcar River Basin (RB) (Spain); Reno RB (Italy); Tympaki RB (Greece); Nitra RB (Slovakia); Caplina-Mauri-Desaguadero RB (Peru, Chile & Bolivia); Orontes RB (Lebanon, Syria & Turkey); and Mahanadi RB (Indian states of Chhattisgarh & Odisha). TRANSCEND will leverage this diverse set of demonstrators to initiate adoption of the ecosystem of innovation in 8+ inspiration labs, train 160+ transformation agents, and mainstream uncertainty analysis in key national and European Green Deal strategies. This will provide the knowledge and tools to catalyze robust and systemic transformations to water scarcity and climate change globally, with a clear impact pathway towards TAP adoption in 100+ basins by 2030.”