Relationship between lawful handgun ownership and risk of homicide victimization in the home

合法持有手枪与家庭凶杀受害风险之间的关系

• 批准号: 10400411
• 负责人: DAVID M STUDDERT
• 金额: $ 118.69万
• 依托单位: STANFORD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-17 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10400411
• 关键词: Accounting; Acquaintances; Adult; Advocacy; Advocate; Affect; Age; Back; Benefits and Risks; California; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Cohort Analysis; Cohort Studies; Communities; Cox Proportional Hazards Models; Crime; Dangerousness; Environment; Equilibrium; Ethnic group; Exposure to; Family; Family member; Firearms; Friends; Goals; Guns; Heterogeneity; Home; Homicide; Household; Individual; Intervention; Journals; Law Enforcement; Medicine; Methods; Minority; Modeling; Motivation; Neighborhoods; New England; Outcome; Outcome Measure; Ownership; Population; Population Heterogeneity; Public Health; Public Health Education; Publishing; Race; Recording of previous events; Reporting; Rights; Risk; Safety; Spouses; Subgroup; Time; United States; Victimization; Woman; age group; assault; base; cohort; evidence base; gun violence; handgun; hazard; high risk; improved; member; men; mortality; perpetrators; protective effect; safety net; sex; suicidal risk; violence prevention

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT In the United States, personal protection is the leading motivation for purchasing and owning firearms, especially handguns. However, available evidence mostly suggests that residents of homes with guns are more—not less—likely to die from homicide. A key limitation of the evidence base is that individual- level studies of the relationship between firearm access and lethal assaults have been relatively small in scale, permitting estimation only of average population-wide effects. Such estimates may miss protective effects (or disproportionately high risks) among certain subgroups—women, for example, or people living in dangerous neighborhoods. The goal of this study is to explore the relationship between living in a home with lawfully-owned handguns and the risk of dying by homicide—overall, and for a variety of distinct subgroups. These analyses are made feasible by a unique, recently-constructed cohort of 28.6 million adults residents of California who are followed for up to 12.2 years. The cohort consists of a mix of handgun owners, nonowners who live with owners, and nonowners who live in homes without handguns. We observe individual-level, time-varying information on cohort members’ handgun purchasing history (back to 1985), cause-specific mortality, and demographic characteristics; household identifiers permit linkage of cohabitating cohort members. The study will focus on homicides occurring in and around the victim’s home. We will begin by comparing rates of homicide victimization in homes with and without handguns. Next, we will repeat this analysis separately for men and women; for people of different age groups and race and ethnic groups; for household members who own handguns (predominantly men), and those who don’t own but reside with owners (predominantly women); and for people living in relatively dangerous and relatively safe neighborhoods. We will also assess how risks of different types of homicide (e.g., homicides perpetrated by family members vs by strangers) vary between homes with and without handguns. All of these associations will be estimated by fitting extended Cox proportional hazards models that adjust for age, sex, race and ethnic group, and long-gun ownership; the models will allow baseline hazards to vary according to neighborhood. This is the first cohort study to investigate the relationship between household exposure to firearms and risks of homicide. Study results will provide policymakers, law enforcement, public health practitioners, and— most importantly—handgun owners and their cohabitants with a more complete and accurate accounting of the risks and benefits of living in a home with handgun. The findings will also inform firearm violence prevention initiatives: more specific information on who is at especially high risk of homicide can be used to target interventions and tailor public health education and messaging.

项目总结/摘要 在美国，个人保护是购买和拥有枪支的主要动机， 尤其是手枪然而，现有的证据大多表明， 更有可能死于凶杀案。证据基础的一个关键限制是个人- 对枪支获取和致命攻击之间关系的水平研究相对较少， 规模，只允许估计平均人口范围的影响。这样的估计可能会错过保护性 影响（或不成比例的高风险）在某些亚组-妇女，例如，或生活在 在危险的街区。本研究的目的是探讨生活在一个 家庭与合法拥有的手枪和死亡的杀人风险-整体而言，并为各种 不同的亚群。这些分析是可行的一个独特的，最近构建的队列28.6 对加州的100万成年居民进行长达12.2年的随访。该队列由混合 手枪拥有者，与拥有者住在一起的非拥有者，以及住在没有 手枪我们观察了队列成员手枪的个人水平的、随时间变化的信息 购买历史（追溯到1985年）、死因别死亡率和人口统计学特征;家庭 标识符允许同居群组成员的联系。该研究将侧重于发生在 以及受害者家周围的监控录像我们将开始通过比较家庭凶杀案的受害率与 而且没有手枪接下来，我们将分别对男性和女性重复这一分析; 不同的年龄组和种族和民族群体;对于拥有手枪的家庭成员 （主要是男性）和那些不拥有但与业主（主要是女性）居住的人; 人们生活在相对危险和相对安全的社区。我们还将评估 不同类型的杀人（例如，家庭成员与陌生人所犯的杀人案）各不相同 有枪和没枪的家庭之间的区别所有这些关联都将通过拟合 扩展的考克斯比例风险模型，调整了年龄，性别，种族和民族，以及长枪 所有权;模型将允许基线危害根据邻里而变化。这是第一 调查家庭接触枪支与枪支使用风险之间关系的队列研究 凶案组研究结果将为决策者、执法人员、公共卫生从业人员和- 最重要的是-手枪拥有者和他们的同居者， 住在有手枪的房子里的风险和好处调查结果还将为枪支暴力提供信息 预防举措：可以使用关于谁特别容易被杀人的更具体的信息 有针对性地采取干预措施，并调整公共卫生教育和宣传。