Mathematical and computational modeling of suicidal thoughts and behaviors

自杀想法和行为的数学和计算模型

• 批准号: 10437592
• 负责人: Shirley Wang
• 金额: $ 3.28万
• 依托单位: HARVARD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-07-01 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10437592
• 关键词: Address; Affective; Behavior; Behavioral; Biological Models; Cause of Death; Cellular Phone; Climate; Clinical; Cognitive; Complex; Computer Models; Computer software; Computing Methodologies; Data; Development; Differential Equation; Ecology; Ecosystem; Environment; Equation; Evaluation; Family; Feeling hopeless; Feeling suicidal; Funding; Goals; Influentials; Intervention; Language; Longitudinal Studies; Mathematics; Medical Care Costs; Mentorship; Methods; Modeling; National Institute of Mental Health; Nature; Persons; Pneumonia; Positioning Attribute; Process; Productivity; Psychiatry; Psychologist; Public Health; Research; Research Training; Risk; Scientific Advances and Accomplishments; Specific qualifier value; Specificity; Structure; Suicide; Suicide prevention; System; Technology; Temperature; Testing; Time; Training; Tuberculosis; United States; Water; Weather; Work; base; behavior observation; career; computer code; computer science; computerized tools; data modeling; dynamic system; experience; improved; innovation; insight; mathematical methods; mathematical model; mathematical sciences; mathematical theory; multilevel analysis; negative affect; novel; programs; rate of change; real time monitoring; skills; social factors; statistics; suicidal; suicidal behavior; suicide model; suicide rate; theories; wearable sensor technology

Project Summary/Abstract Suicide is a devastating public health concern. More than 40,000 people die by suicide in the US each year, making it the 10th leading cause of death and responsible for >$30 billion in lost productivity and medical costs. Unfortunately, whereas scientific advances have led to significant declines in other leading causes of death (e.g., pneumonia, tuberculosis) over the past century, the current suicide rate is nearly identical to the early 1900s. In order to improve prediction and prevention of suicide, a better mechanistic understanding of risk and protective processes underlying suicidal thoughts and behaviors is needed. Computational psychiatry holds such promise for advancing suicide research, particularly through building and testing formal theories. Although many influential suicide theories have existed for decades, these have all been instantiated verbally, which renders them underspecified by nature (due to the inherent imprecision of language). On the other hand, using tools from computational psychiatry, formal theories are instantiated in mathematical equations and computer code. This requires more specificity and precision of the exact strength, form, and time scale of theorized effects. Indeed, formal theories have led to significant advances and breakthroughs in other scientific fields concerned with the understanding and prediction of complex systems (e.g., ecosystems, climate). Thus, the proposed project aims to address this major gap in suicide research by using mathematical and computational modeling to build, evaluate, and test a formal theory of suicide. The candidate and mentorship team, including leading experts in suicide and computational modeling of complex dynamic systems, have developed a preliminary theory of suicidal thoughts and behaviors encompassing cognitive, affective, behavioral, and social factors. Aim 1 of the project is to formalize each of these associations using differential equations (a family of mathematical models that specify the relationship between functions and their derivatives and are extremely useful for modeling change in complex systems over time). Aim 2 is to transform these mathematical equations into computer code to simulate artificial data, allowing for direct observation of the behavior implied by the theory. This step will allow for an evaluation of whether the theory is able to produce fundamental, known phenomena about suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Finally, Aim 3 will leverage data from an ongoing NIMH-funded intensive longitudinal study of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (N = 300) to evaluate the theory-based simulated artificial data against empirical data collected in real-time. The proposed study’s greatest potential impacts are to develop and evaluate the first formal theory of suicidal thoughts and behaviors using mathematical and computational modeling, as well as to promote a program of research uniting the two major NIMH priorities of suicide prevention and computational psychiatry. Together, this can advance the mechanistic understanding of suicidal thoughts and behaviors to improve suicide prediction, as well as provide actionable information about novel treatment and intervention targets for suicide prevention.

项目摘要/摘要 自杀是一个毁灭性的公共卫生问题。在美国，每年有超过4万人死于自杀， 使其成为第十大致死原因，并造成了300亿美元的生产力损失和医疗费用。 不幸的是，尽管科学进步导致其他主要死因的显著下降 (例如肺炎、肺结核)在过去的一个世纪里，目前的自杀率与早期几乎相同 1900年代。为了更好地预测和预防自杀，更好地从机制上理解风险和 自杀想法和行为背后的保护过程是必要的。计算精神病学支持 这样的前景推动自杀研究，特别是通过建立和测试正式的理论。 虽然许多有影响力的自杀理论已经存在了几十年，但这些都是口头上的例证， 这使得它们在性质上被低估了(由于语言固有的不精确性)。另一方面， 使用计算精神病学的工具，形式理论在数学方程式中实例化，并 计算机代码。这需要更具体、更精确的强度、形式和时间尺度 理论化的效果。事实上，正式的理论已经导致了其他科学领域的重大进步和突破 与复杂系统(如生态系统、气候)的理解和预测有关的领域。因此， 拟议的项目旨在解决自杀研究中的这一重大差距，方法是使用数学和 建立、评估和测试自杀的正式理论的计算模型。候选人和导师 团队，包括自杀和复杂动态系统计算建模的领先专家，已经 开发了一个初步的自杀想法和行为的理论，包括认知、情感、 行为和社会因素。该项目的目标1是使用差异将这些关联中的每一个正式化 方程式(指定函数和它们之间的关系的一系列数学模型 导数，对于模拟复杂系统随时间的变化非常有用)。目标2是转变 将这些数学方程转化为计算机代码，模拟人工数据，允许直接观察 这一理论所暗示的行为。这一步将允许评估该理论是否能够 产生关于自杀想法和行为的基本的、已知的现象。最后，Aim 3将利用 来自NIMH资助的一项正在进行的关于自杀想法和行为的密集纵向研究(N=300)的数据 根据实时收集的经验数据对基于理论的模拟人工数据进行评估。建议数 这项研究最大的潜在影响是开发和评估第一个自杀念头的正式理论和 使用数学和计算建模的行为，以及促进一个研究计划 将自杀预防和计算精神病学这两大NIMH优先事项结合起来。总而言之，这可以 促进对自杀想法和行为的机械性理解，以改善自杀预测，如 并提供有关预防自杀的新治疗和干预目标的可操作信息。

项目成果

Functional assessment of restrictive eating: A three-study clinically heterogeneous and transdiagnostic investigation.

• DOI: 10.1037/abn0000700
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: Journal of abnormal psychology
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Wang SB;Fox KR;Boccagno C;Hooley JM;Mair P;Nock MK;Haynos AF
• 通讯作者: Haynos AF

Body dissatisfaction, ideals, and identity in the development of disordered eating among adolescent ballet dancers.

青少年芭蕾舞演员饮食失调发展中的身体不满、理想和身份。

• DOI: 10.1002/eat.24005
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: The International journal of eating disorders
• 作者: Ohashi,Yuri-GraceB;Wang,ShirleyB;Shingleton,RebeccaM;Nock,MatthewK
• 通讯作者: Nock,MatthewK

An empirical taxonomy of reward response patterns in a transdiagnostic eating disorder sample.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.eatbeh.2021.101531
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Eating behaviors
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Haynos AF;Wang SB;LeMay-Russell S;Lavender JM;Pearson CM;Mathis KJ;Peterson CB;Crow SJ
• 通讯作者: Crow SJ

Exploring Adolescent Experiences with Disclosing Self-Injurious Thoughts and Behaviors Across Settings.

• DOI: 10.1007/s10802-021-00878-x
• 发表时间: 2022-05
• 期刊: RESEARCH ON CHILD AND ADOLESCENT PSYCHOPATHOLOGY
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Fox, Kathryn R.;Bettis, Alexandra H.;Burke, Taylor A.;Hart, Erica A.;Wang, Shirley B.
• 通讯作者: Wang, Shirley B.

Real-time digital monitoring of a suicide attempt by a hospital patient.

对医院患者自杀企图的实时数字监控。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.genhosppsych.2022.12.005
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: General hospital psychiatry
• 影响因子: 7
• 作者: Coppersmith,DanielDL;Wang,ShirleyB;Kleiman,EvanM;Maimone,JosephS;Fedor,Szymon;Bentley,KateH;Millner,AlexanderJ;Fortgang,RebeccaG;Picard,RosalindW;Beck,Stuart;Huffman,JeffC;Nock,MatthewK
• 通讯作者: Nock,MatthewK