HORIZON-CL5-2021-D5-05-01 - BeCoM - Better Contrails Mitigation - 101056885

HORIZON-CL5-2021-D5-05-01 - BeCoM - 更好的尾迹缓解 - 101056885

• 批准号: 10075768
• 金额: $ 6.04万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10075768
• 关键词: HORIZON; CL5; 2021; D5; 05

Aviation contributes to about 5% of the total anthropogenic climate change when including non-CO2 effects, e.g., contrail formation and the impact of NOx emissions on ozone and methane. Among various non-CO2 effects, the contrail-cirrus radiative forcing is the largest (~2/3) with large uncertainties. The most critical affecting factor is the huge weather-induced variability of the radiative impact of individual contrails. This is the quantity, BeCoM will predict better since the knowledge of the individual radiative forcing is the basis for avoidance of just those contrails that contribute most to the overall climate impact. Once this is standard, it will be possible to formulate adequate mitigation measures and develop policy-driven implementation schemes. BeCoM will address the uncertainties related to the forecasting of persistent contrails and their weather-dependent individual radiative effects. BeCoM focuses on: 1) obtaining a larger and higher resolution database of relative humidity and ice supersaturation at cruise levelsfor assimilation into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models; 2) providing more adequate representation of ice clouds in their supersaturated environment in the NWP models; and 3) validation of the predictions to determine and reduce the remaining uncertainties of contrail forecasts. To facilitate the assimilation and validation process, BeCoM will develop a novel hybrid artificial intelligence algorithm. Based on the contrail prediction, BeCoM will develop a policy framework for effective contrail avoidance through a trajectory optimization approach. BeCoM will enable a better understanding of contrail’s climate impact and formulate recommendations on how to implement strategies to enable air traffic management to reduce aviation's climate impact. The BeCoM consortium builds on its knowledge and expertise covering a wide spectrum from atmospheric science and climate research to aviation operations research and policy development.

当包括非二氧化碳影响（例如凝结尾迹的形成以及氮氧化物排放对臭氧和甲烷的影响）时，航空对总人为气候变化的影响约为 5%。在各种非CO2效应中，轨迹卷云辐射强迫最大（~2/3），不确定性较大。最关键的影响因素是天气引起的单个尾迹辐射影响的巨大变化。 BeCoM 将更好地预测这个数量，因为个体辐射强迫的知识是避免那些对整体气候影响最大的凝结尾迹的基础。一旦成为标准，就可以制定适当的缓解措施并制定政策驱动的实施计划。 BeCoM 将解决与持续尾迹预测及其与天气相关的个体辐射影响相关的不确定性。 BeCoM 专注于：1) 获得更大、更高分辨率的巡航高度相对湿度和冰过饱和度数据库，以便同化到数值天气预报 (NWP) 模型中； 2) 在 NWP 模型中提供更充分的冰云过饱和环境表征； 3) 验证预测以确定并减少轨迹预测的剩余不确定性。为了促进同化和验证过程，BeCoM 将开发一种新型混合人工智能算法。基于轨迹预测，BeCoM 将开发一个政策框架，通过轨迹优化方法有效避免轨迹。 BeCoM 将帮助人们更好地了解凝结尾迹的气候影响，并就如何实施战略以使空中交通管理减少航空对气候的影响提出建议。 BeCoM 联盟的知识和专长涵盖从大气科学和气候研究到航空运营研究和政策制定等广泛领域。