CleanCloud: Clouds and climate transitioning to post-fossil aerosol regime

CleanCloud：云和气候过渡到后化石气溶胶状态

• 批准号: 10091700
• 金额: $ 28.44万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10091700
• 关键词: CleanCloud; Clouds; climate; transitioning; post

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) remain the largest source of uncertainty in past, present, and future radiative forcing, impeding credible climate projections. ACI effects are expected to change dramatically as we enter a post-fossil world, characterized by strong reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions but with increasingly larger impacts from natural aerosols. Although we expect cleaner clouds compared to today, ACI in this post-fossil state may considerably differ from preindustrial conditions, owing to shifts in climate and changes in sources region characteristics. CleanCloud will address the major gaps impeding robust ACI assessments, improve their representation in current and next generation kilometer-scale climate models, quantify and understand their regional and temporal effects, and how they will evolve in the transition to the post-fossil regime. To accomplish this, CleanCloud will 1) carry out targeted field experiments in European climate hotspots; 2) develop state-of-the-art algorithms and analysis tools to obtain new proxies and diagnostics for key ACI-related processes; 3) contribute to the calibration and validation of upcoming satellite missions in coordination with the satellite community; 4) improve and better constrain kilometer- and large-scale climate models using advanced machine learning, data assimilation and model calibration, confronting perturbed physics ensembles with existing and new satellite and in-situ data; and 5) assess the role of aerosols in the life cycle of convective systems, focusing on precipitation formation and the impacts on the hydrological cycle, and 6) enhance the exploitation of data centres, measurement programs, international campaigns, laboratory studies, and models. With these, CleanCloud will profoundly strengthen European Research on climate change, significantly contribute to upcoming climate assessments, and benefit society through models that enable improved weather and seasonal predictions

在过去，现在和未来的辐射强迫中，气雾云相互作用（ACI）仍然是最大的不确定性来源，阻碍了可靠的气候预测。当我们进入化石后世界时，ACI效应预计将发生巨大变化，其特征是人为气溶胶排放的强烈减少，但对天然气溶胶的影响越来越大。尽管我们期望与今天相比清洁云，但由于气候变化和来源地区特征的变化，化石状态下的ACI可能与工业前的条件有很大差异。 CleanCloud将解决阻碍强大的ACI评估的主要差距，改善其在当前和下一代尺度的气候模型中的代表性，量化和理解其区域和时间效应，以及它们在过渡到化石后制度中的发展。为此，CleanCloud将在1）在欧洲气候热点进行有针对性的现场实验； 2）开发最先进的算法和分析工具，以获取有关关键ACI相关过程的新代理和诊断； 3）有助于与卫星社区协调的卫星任务的校准和验证； 4）使用先进的机器学习，数据同化和模型校准，改善和更好地限制了公里和大规模的气候模型，与现有和新的卫星以及现有卫星和现场数据相遇，面对扰动的物理集合； 5）评估气溶胶在对流系统生命周期中的作用，重点是降水形成和对水文周期的影响，以及6）增强对数据中心，测量计划，国际运动，实验室研究和模型的开采。有了这些，CleanCloud将深刻地加强欧洲对气候变化的研究，对即将到来的气候评估做出重大贡献，并通过改善天气和季节性预测的模型来使社会受益