Simulating the impact of a menthol ban in the US; translating the Canadian model

项目总结 薄荷醇香烟占美国卷烟市场的很大一部分，根据流行率估计 达到约35%(联邦贸易委员会，2016年)。薄荷醇是一种添加到香烟中的调味剂，可以掩盖香烟的味道 烟草，诱导感官效应，招募和留住吸烟者。在全面查阅文献后，美国 美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)咨询委员会指出，禁止薄荷醇香烟将受益 公共卫生，并于2019年11月宣布打算监管烟草中薄荷醇的销售。 然而，为了监管薄荷醇香烟，FDA要求提供证据，证明薄荷醇香烟的预期影响 在实施过程中规范薄荷脑和现实世界的知识。这项研究将使用两个 NIH/TRS资助了纵向研究、美国的路径以及从加拿大安大略省到加拿大的一群吸烟者 开发一个模拟模型，预测加拿大的禁令如何，这是唯一被评估的国家水平之一 世界上实施的薄荷醇禁令，将反映在美国，因为年龄，性别，种族， 薄荷醇的使用，以及对行为改变的期望。这个项目的目标是估计 加拿大薄荷醇禁令预测美国薄荷醇法规对戒烟、健康的影响 结果，以及医疗费用。

PROJECT SUMMARY Menthol cigarettes comprise a substantial portion of the American cigarette market with prevalence estimates reaching about 35% (FTC, 2016). Menthol is a flavouring agent added to cigarettes that masks the taste of tobacco, induces sensory effects, and recruits and retains smokers. After a thorough literature review, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee noted that banning menthol cigarettes would benefit public health and announced intentions to regulate the sale of menthol in tobacco in November 2019. However, in order to regulate menthol cigarettes, the FDA requires evidence on the expected impact of regulating menthol and real world knowledge on the process of implementation. This study will use two NIH/TRS funded longitudinal studies, the PATH in the US, and a cohort of smokers from Ontario, Canada to develop a simulation model predicting how the Canadian ban, one of the only evaluated national level implemented menthol ban in the world, would be reflected in the US given differences in age, sex, race, menthol use, and expectations of change of behaviour. The goal of this project is to estimates of the impact of the Canadian menthol ban to predict the impact of menthol regulations in the US on smoking cessation, health outcomes, and health costs.