Simulating the impact of a menthol ban in the US; translating the Canadian model

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PROJECT SUMMARY Menthol cigarettes comprise a substantial portion of the American cigarette market with prevalence estimates reaching about 35% (FTC, 2016). Menthol is a flavouring agent added to cigarettes that masks the taste of tobacco, induces sensory effects, and recruits and retains smokers. After a thorough literature review, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee noted that banning menthol cigarettes would benefit public health and announced intentions to regulate the sale of menthol in tobacco in November 2019. However, in order to regulate menthol cigarettes, the FDA requires evidence on the expected impact of regulating menthol and real world knowledge on the process of implementation. This study will use two NIH/TRS funded longitudinal studies, the PATH in the US, and a cohort of smokers from Ontario, Canada to develop a simulation model predicting how the Canadian ban, one of the only evaluated national level implemented menthol ban in the world, would be reflected in the US given differences in age, sex, race, menthol use, and expectations of change of behaviour. The goal of this project is to estimates of the impact of the Canadian menthol ban to predict the impact of menthol regulations in the US on smoking cessation, health outcomes, and health costs.