Simulating the impact of a menthol ban in the US; translating the Canadian model

项目摘要 薄荷香烟占美国香烟市场的很大一部分， 达到约35%（FTC，2016）。薄荷脑是一种添加到香烟中的调味剂，可以掩盖香烟的味道。 烟草，诱导感官效应，招募和留住吸烟者。经过全面的文献回顾，美国。 美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）咨询委员会指出，禁止薄荷香烟将有利于 公共卫生，并宣布打算在2019年11月规范烟草中薄荷醇的销售。 然而，为了规范薄荷醇香烟，FDA要求提供有关薄荷醇香烟预期影响的证据。 调节薄荷醇和真实的世界知识的实施过程。这项研究将使用两个 NIH/TRS资助的纵向研究，美国的PATH，以及一组从加拿大安大略到 开发一个模拟模型，预测加拿大的禁令，唯一评估的国家一级 在世界上实施薄荷醇禁令，将反映在美国的年龄，性别，种族， 薄荷醇的使用，以及对行为改变的期望。该项目的目标是估计 加拿大薄荷醇禁令，以预测美国薄荷醇法规对戒烟，健康 结果和健康成本。

PROJECT SUMMARY Menthol cigarettes comprise a substantial portion of the American cigarette market with prevalence estimates reaching about 35% (FTC, 2016). Menthol is a flavouring agent added to cigarettes that masks the taste of tobacco, induces sensory effects, and recruits and retains smokers. After a thorough literature review, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee noted that banning menthol cigarettes would benefit public health and announced intentions to regulate the sale of menthol in tobacco in November 2019. However, in order to regulate menthol cigarettes, the FDA requires evidence on the expected impact of regulating menthol and real world knowledge on the process of implementation. This study will use two NIH/TRS funded longitudinal studies, the PATH in the US, and a cohort of smokers from Ontario, Canada to develop a simulation model predicting how the Canadian ban, one of the only evaluated national level implemented menthol ban in the world, would be reflected in the US given differences in age, sex, race, menthol use, and expectations of change of behaviour. The goal of this project is to estimates of the impact of the Canadian menthol ban to predict the impact of menthol regulations in the US on smoking cessation, health outcomes, and health costs.