THE EFFECTS OF TEENAGE AND ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS

在这项拟议的研究项目中，我们将：（1）开发和 实施一种新的准实验方法， 关于某些生物过程的随机性的信息， 人类胎儿发育，即染色体的发生 异常流产，结合调查数据， 影响的统计稳健性和严格的上下限 青少年和/或非法生育的一系列 母亲成年后的社会经济结果;（2）测试经济状况 和社会学理论解释为什么有些妇女 青少年，而其他人没有通过验证是否估计， 综合这些理论，可以得出青少年生育率的估计值 在我们的范围内;（3）使用替代类型的 信息和/或假设与我们的非 参数界限来探索收紧我们提出的非参数界限的方法 早婚和非婚生育的因果效应的参数界限 生育，以便他们更精确，检查更少 行为类型的高度参数化版本 假设，这种比较优势和/或共同因素 结构，在以前的研究中使用。使用国家数据 青年纵向研究（NLSY）和补充数据， 各种来源，以产生发病率的估计， 染色体异常流产和其他生殖事件， 我们将开发这种新的方法来研究 青少年和非婚生育：高中毕业 率，高中后教育程度，劳动力 参与率和实现的工资，结婚倾向， 保持婚姻，接受福利的倾向，以及 生活在贫困中的倾向，这些结果将是 是在女人快30岁的时候测量的

In this proposed research project, we will: (1) develop and implement a new quasi-experimental method that which exploits information on the random nature of certain biological processes of human fetal development, namely the occurrence of chromosomally aberrant miscarriages, in conjunction with survey data, to put statistically robust and tight lower and upper bounds on the effect of teenage and/or illegitimate childbearing on a range of socioeconomic outcomes of the mother as an adult; (2) test economic and sociological theories of why some women have children as teenagers while others do not by validating whether estimators that incorporate these theories yield estimates of teenage childbearing that lie within our bounds; and (3) use alternative types of information and/or assumptions in conjunction with our non- parametric bounds to explore ways to tighten our proposed non- parametric bounds of the causal effects of early and out-of-wedlock childbearing so that they are more precise and to examine less highly parameterized versions of the types of behavioral assumptions, such comparative advantage and/or common factor structures, used in previous studies. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY) and supplementary data from a variety of sources to generate estimates of incidence rates of chromosomally aberrant miscarriages and other reproductive events, we will develop this new methodology to investigate the effects of teenage and out- of-wedlock childbearing on: high school completion rates, post-high school educational attainment, the labor force participation rates and wages achieved, the propensity to marry and remain married, the propensity to receive welfare, and the propensity to live in poverty, where these outcomes will be measured when the woman is in her late 20's.