BOUNDING THE EFFECTS OF TEENAGE AND ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS

在本研究项目的继续进行中，我们建议：1. 估计美国青少年生育对社会经济的影响 以及儿童的生物学结果，包括低血压的患病率 出生体重、早产、婴儿死亡率、健康和行为 问题，增长和发展缓慢，获得医疗保健的机会很少， 中开发的统计稳健的非参数边界 这笔赠款的初始资助期。2.复制和验证，使用 替代数据来源、在上一个供资期间所做的工作、 研究青少年生育对母亲结局的影响， 包括高中以上学历，劳动力 实现的参与率和工资，结婚倾向和 保持婚姻，接受福利的倾向，以及倾向 生活在贫困中。我们将进一步扩展这项研究，考虑到 从儿童的角度看产妇的结果，即在不同年龄 儿童的生活，以确定早期的潜在影响 生育对青少年母亲后代发育的影响。3. 进一步开发和测试所开发的评估设计的有效性 在前一资金使用期间发生的随机性 (染色体异常)青春期女性流产形成自然 用来确定故障的因果影响的实验 十几岁的母亲推迟生育。在本分析中，我们将 探索应对少报生育事件的策略 例如怀孕、堕胎和流产，以建立我们的 通过将这些事件的国家卫生统计数据纳入 我们的估计是。4.同时测试经济学和社会学理论 作为统计方法，一些妇女决定生孩子 作为青少年，通过验证这些估计者是否与 模型给出的青少年生育估计在我们的 强健的边界。例如，我们将测试参数规范以 应对青少年生育的内生性问题 在文献中使用，例如家庭(兄弟姐妹)固定效应和线性效应 背景效果的回归控制，与我们的健壮边界相反。 我们还将探索收紧所建议的非参数界限的方法 通过使用来自医学研究的辅助信息并通过使用 行为假设，如比较优势和共同因素 结构，在经验规范中的高度参数化程度低于 在当前的文学作品中。

In the continuation of this research project, we propose to: 1. Estimate the effect of teenage childbearing in the U.S. on socioeconomic and biological outcomes of the children, including the prevalence of low birth weight, pre-term delivery, infant mortality, health and behavioral problems, slow growth and development, and poor access to health care, using statistically robust, non-parametric bounds developed in the initial funding period of this grant. 2. Replicate and validate, using alternative data sources, work done in the previous funding period, examining the effect of teenage childbearing on maternal outcomes, including post-high school educational attainment, labor force participation rates and wages achieved, the propensity to marry and remain married, the propensity to receive welfare, and the propensity to live in poverty. we will further expand this research by considering maternal outcomes from the child's perspective, i.e., at different ages of the child's life, to determine the potential impact of early childbearing on the development of the offspring of teen mothers. 3. Further develop and test the validity of the evaluation design developed in the previous funding period of using the occurrence of random (chromosomally aberrant) miscarriages among teen women to form a natural experiment with which to identify the causal effect of the failure of teen mothers to delay their childbearing. In this analysis, we will explore strategies for dealing with underreporting of fertility events such as pregnancies, abortions, and miscarriages in establishing our bounds by incorporating national health statistics on these events into our estimation. 4. Test economic and sociological theories, as well as statistical methods, of the decisions of some women to have children as teenagers by validating whether the estimators associated with these models yield estimates of teenage childbearing that lie within our robust bounds. For example, we will test parametric specifications to deal with the endogeneity of teenage childbearing that is frequently used in the literature, e.g., family (sibling) fixed effects and linear regression controls for background effects, against our robust bounds. We will also explore ways to tighten our proposed non-parametric bounds by using auxiliary information from medical research and by using behavioral assumptions, such as comparative advantage and common factor structures, in an empirical specification less highly parameterized than in the current literature.