BOUNDING THE EFFECTS OF TEENAGE AND ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS

在本研究项目的继续中，我们建议：1。 估计美国青少年生育对社会经济的影响 和生物学结果，包括低 出生体重、早产、婴儿死亡率、健康和行为 问题，增长和发展缓慢，获得保健的机会少， 使用统计上稳健的，非参数界限， 这一资助的初始阶段。 2. 复制和验证，使用 替代数据来源，上一个供资期所做的工作， 研究青少年生育对产妇结局的影响， 包括高中后教育程度、劳动力 参与率和实现的工资，结婚倾向， 结婚，倾向于接受福利，倾向于 生活在贫困中。 我们将进一步扩大这项研究， 从儿童的角度来看产妇的结果，即，不同年龄 儿童的生活，以确定早期的潜在影响， 生育对青少年母亲的后代的发展。 3. 进一步开发和测试所开发的评估设计的有效性 在上一个供资期间， （染色体异常）流产的青少年妇女，以形成一个自然的 实验，以确定失败的因果关系， 青少年母亲推迟生育 在本分析中，我们将 探讨处理生育事件报告不足问题的战略 例如怀孕，堕胎和流产， 将这些事件的国家卫生统计数据纳入 我们的估计。 4. 也要测试经济学和社会学理论 作为一种统计方法， 作为青少年，通过验证是否与这些相关的估计， 模型得出的青少年生育的估计值， 鲁棒边界 例如，我们将测试参数规格， 处理青少年生育的内部问题， 在文献中使用，例如，家庭（兄弟姐妹）固定效应和线性 背景效应的回归控制，与我们的稳健界限相反。 我们还将探讨如何收紧我们提出的非参数界限 通过使用医学研究的辅助信息， 行为假设，如比较优势和共同因素 结构，在经验规范中，参数化程度低于 在目前的文学。

In the continuation of this research project, we propose to: 1. Estimate the effect of teenage childbearing in the U.S. on socioeconomic and biological outcomes of the children, including the prevalence of low birth weight, pre-term delivery, infant mortality, health and behavioral problems, slow growth and development, and poor access to health care, using statistically robust, non-parametric bounds developed in the initial funding period of this grant. 2. Replicate and validate, using alternative data sources, work done in the previous funding period, examining the effect of teenage childbearing on maternal outcomes, including post-high school educational attainment, labor force participation rates and wages achieved, the propensity to marry and remain married, the propensity to receive welfare, and the propensity to live in poverty. we will further expand this research by considering maternal outcomes from the child's perspective, i.e., at different ages of the child's life, to determine the potential impact of early childbearing on the development of the offspring of teen mothers. 3. Further develop and test the validity of the evaluation design developed in the previous funding period of using the occurrence of random (chromosomally aberrant) miscarriages among teen women to form a natural experiment with which to identify the causal effect of the failure of teen mothers to delay their childbearing. In this analysis, we will explore strategies for dealing with underreporting of fertility events such as pregnancies, abortions, and miscarriages in establishing our bounds by incorporating national health statistics on these events into our estimation. 4. Test economic and sociological theories, as well as statistical methods, of the decisions of some women to have children as teenagers by validating whether the estimators associated with these models yield estimates of teenage childbearing that lie within our robust bounds. For example, we will test parametric specifications to deal with the endogeneity of teenage childbearing that is frequently used in the literature, e.g., family (sibling) fixed effects and linear regression controls for background effects, against our robust bounds. We will also explore ways to tighten our proposed non-parametric bounds by using auxiliary information from medical research and by using behavioral assumptions, such as comparative advantage and common factor structures, in an empirical specification less highly parameterized than in the current literature.