DEVELOPMENT OF AN EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODEL FOR TRACHOMA

沙眼，由眼部感染C。沙眼是 是全球最主要的致盲传染病 一些 调查人员所做的沙眼流行病学研究， 阐明了沙眼致盲后遗症风险人群， 这些研究提出了一些潜在的有效控制方法， 战略布局 该项目将开发和测试一个流行病学模型， 对于沙眼，这将包括一个传播模型， 疾病和致盲后遗症的进展模型。 我们提议 在高流行地区建立沙眼非均匀混合模型 根据年龄、性别和家庭对风险群体进行分层 特色 该模型将整合现有知识， 衣原体感染、传播、疾病和致盲后遗症。 数据 对于这个模型，可以从研究人员那里获得独特的纵向 来自坦桑尼亚沙眼高流行地区的一系列数据集， 阿曼. 这种模型的开发为测试提供了一种强有力的方法 资源贫乏地区的替代控制策略， 限制因素可能会限制实地研究。 这些战略包括： 改变卫生行为，大规模抗生素治疗， 倒睫/睑内翻的干预。 该模型的数据将 对于制定2010年沙眼控制方向的决策至关重要， 未来

Trachoma, caused by an ocular infection with C. trachomatis is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. A number of epidemiologic studies of trachoma done by the investigators have elucidated the populations at risk for blinding sequelae of trachoma, and these studies suggest a number of potentially effective control strategies. This project would develop and test an epidemiologic model for trachoma which would consist of a transmission model for active disease, and a progression model for blinding sequela. We are proposing to model the non-homogeneous mixing of trachoma in a hyperendemic area by stratifying risk groups according to age, sex and household characteristics. The model will integrate current knowledge on chlamydial infection, transmission, disease, and blinding sequelae. Data for this model are available from the investigators unique, longitudinal series of data sets from trachoma hyperendemic areas of Tanzania and Oman. Development of such a model offers a powerful method for testing alternative control strategies in resource poor areas where time and cost constraints may limit field studies. Such strategies include programs to change hygiene behavior, mass antibiotic treatment, and surgical intervention for trichiasis/entropion. Data from this model will be critical for decision making on direction for trachoma control for the future.