LONG RANGE POPULATION PROJECTION BY DISABILITY STATUS II

这是一项构建个人计算机软件包的建议，该软件包 将以人口数的形式产生长期的人口预测 档案。一揽子计划将包括每一年的基年人口 它还将提供与违约预测挂钩的违约预测 接近联邦机构的预测，或者允许分析师 替代定制的替代方案。该套餐旨在提供 技术分析师是一种工具，用于准备对一个州或 时间和费用投入适中的地区。 人事级档案将由非制度化、非 残疾人口、非制度化残疾人口和 长期医疗设施中的人口。这将被组装起来 通过统计匹配公共使用文件。这些文件将包括 人口的经济和人口特征 强调对长期护理服务的需求和筹资能力 通过个人资源或公共融资提供这些服务。模型 将作为现有的更简单(也不那么雄心勃勃)的替代方案进行竞争 产品。 软件附带的手册将提供详细的指南 从已发布的数据准备历史研究以实施 人口-经济预测。 建议的商业应用：该投影软件将是 面向从事人口统计应用的专业人员，包括 保险公司，州医疗补助机构，长期护理提供者， 和咨询师。随附的手册预计将有更广泛的 独立受众，包括研究人员和学生。

This is a proposal to construct a personal computer software package that would produce long range population forecasts in the form of person level files. The package would include base year populations for each of the states and the U.S. It would also provide default projections tied closely to the forecasts of federal agencies, or allow the analyst to substitute customized alternatives. The package is intended to provide the technical analyst a tool to prepare multiple forecasts of a state or region with modest investment of time and expense. The person level files would consist of a non institutionalized, non disabled population, a non institutionalized disabled population and a population in long term medical care facilities. This would be assembled by statistically matching public use files. The files would include economic and demographic characteristics of the population with an emphasis on demand for long term care services and the capacity to finance these services through personal resources or public financing. The model would compete as a simpler (and less ambitious) alternative to existing products. The manual to accompany the software would provide a detailed guide for preparing historical studies from published data to implement a demographic-economic forecast. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATION: This projection software would be marketed to professionals working in demographic applications including insurance companies, state Medicaid agencies, long term care providers, and consultants. The accompanying handbook is expected to have a wider independent audience including researchers and students.