PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE TREATMENT OF VENOUS LEG ULCERS

下肢静脉溃疡占所有慢性伤口的40 - 70%， 每年有100万美国人， 估计每年要花费超过10亿美元。当前 用于这些伤口的标准疗法是肢体压迫绷带， 最多有70%到80%的成功率 的信息很少 可以用来预测谁会有一个成功的结果。的 该建议的假设是，存在可识别的风险因素 可以用来预测哪些人会有一个成功的 结果。一个统计上强大的预测模型将使用 逻辑回归分析基于来自 候选人的临床实践和行业赞助的对照研究所 审判该模型将使用分割样本技术进行验证， 宾夕法尼亚皮肤溃疡中心的一项前瞻性研究。它将提供 信息，将指导研究设计，以评估新的 治疗，建立风险因素和伤口愈合之间的关系 这将导致适当控制的假设驱动的研究， 可以证明两种临床上不同的静脉炎患者亚组 导致溃疡。

Venous leg ulcers account for 40 to 70% of all chronic wounds, afflict 1 million Americans per year, and standard treatment for these patients is estimated to cost more than l billion dollars per year. The current standard therapy for these wounds is a limb compression bandage, which at best has a success rate of 70 to 80%. Very little information exists that can be used to predict who will have a successful outcome. The hypothesis of this proposal is that there are identifiable risk factors that can be used to predict which individuals will have a successful outcome. A statistically powerful prediction model will be created using logistic regression analysis based on a dataset derived from the candidate's clinical practice and the control inns of industry sponsored trials. This model will be validated using a split sample technique, and by a prospective study in Penn's Cutaneous Ulcer Center. It will provide information that will guide the design of studies to evaluate new therapies, establish relationships between risk factor and wound healing which will lead to properly controlled hypothesis driven research, and may demonstrate two clinically distinct subsets of patients with venous led ulcers.