PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE TREATMENT OF VENOUS LEG ULCERS

腿部静脉溃疡治疗的预测模型

• 批准号: 2732476
• 负责人: David Margolis
• 金额: $ 10.64万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-09-15 至 2000-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2732476
• 关键词: blood vessel disorder; disease /disorder proneness /risk; human data; human subject; human therapy evaluation; leg; mathematical model; model design /development; prognosis; skin ulcer; statistics /biometry; wound healing

Venous leg ulcers account for 40 to 70% of all chronic wounds, afflict 1 million Americans per year, and standard treatment for these patients is estimated to cost more than l billion dollars per year. The current standard therapy for these wounds is a limb compression bandage, which at best has a success rate of 70 to 80%. Very little information exists that can be used to predict who will have a successful outcome. The hypothesis of this proposal is that there are identifiable risk factors that can be used to predict which individuals will have a successful outcome. A statistically powerful prediction model will be created using logistic regression analysis based on a dataset derived from the candidate's clinical practice and the control inns of industry sponsored trials. This model will be validated using a split sample technique, and by a prospective study in Penn's Cutaneous Ulcer Center. It will provide information that will guide the design of studies to evaluate new therapies, establish relationships between risk factor and wound healing which will lead to properly controlled hypothesis driven research, and may demonstrate two clinically distinct subsets of patients with venous led ulcers.

腿部静脉性溃疡占所有慢性伤口的 40% 至 70% 每年有 100 万美国人，以及这些患者的标准治疗 估计每年花费超过l十亿美元。目前的 这些伤口的标准疗法是肢体加压绷带， 最好的情况下成功率只有70%到80%。 存在的信息很少 可以用来预测谁会取得成功的结果。这 该提案的假设是存在可识别的风险因素 可以用来预测哪些人会取得成功 结果。将使用以下方法创建统计上强大的预测模型 基于数据集的逻辑回归分析 候选人的临床实践和行业赞助的控制旅馆 试验。该模型将使用分割样本技术进行验证，并且 宾夕法尼亚大学皮肤溃疡中心的一项前瞻性研究。它将提供 指导研究设计以评估新产品的信息 治疗，建立危险因素和伤口愈合之间的关系 这将导致适当控制的假设驱动的研究，以及 可能会证明静脉血栓患者的两个临床上不同的子集 导致溃疡。