Understanding the sources of secular stagnation

了解长期停滞的根源

• 批准号: DP190100202
• 负责人: Prof James Morley
• 金额: $ 22.16万
• 依托单位: The University of Sydney
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP190100202
• 关键词: Understanding; sources; secular; stagnation

This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.

本项目旨在研究为什么近年来许多经济体对产出、通胀和利率的长期预测变得更低，从而导致一种通常被称为长期停滞的现象。该项目旨在开发新的计量经济学工具，以解释结构性断裂和随机趋势的来源，从而量化生产率增长、金融冲击、人口结构和通胀预期在推动长期停滞中的作用。预期成果包括有助于指导宏观经济政策应对停滞的发现，以及支持未来对宏观经济变量行为变化进行应用研究的新计量经济学工具。