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HOUSEHOLD RESPONSES TO ECONOMIC SHOCKS IN BRAZIL

巴西家庭对经济冲击的反应

基本信息

批准号：
2889104
负责人：
DAVID A. LAM
金额：
$ 8.63万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1997-06-01 至 2001-11-30
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This project will analyze household responses to short-run and long-run changes in household economic conditions in Brazil. The project will focus on changes in the labor force participation of women and children and on the schooling attainment of children. The project is motivated by the concern over social effects of macroeconomic fluctuations experienced by many developing countries in recent decades. Brazil experienced volatile economic cycles from 1976 to 1995, a period for which there exist excellent household survey data. These data make it possible to test whether worsening household economic conditions had effects such as decreasing children's school advancement. The project will use two exceptional data sets--the PNAD annual household surveys from 1976 to 1993, and the PME monthly employment survey from 1982 to 1995. These surveys provide data on over 20 million individuals over the tumultuous economic period from 1976 to 1995. The project will use the PME and PNAD to document short-run and long-run trends in wages, employment, and schooling for adults and children. The project will exploit the longitudinal structure of the PME to analyze short-run volatility in wages and decompose wage inequality into persistent and transitory components. The PME data will also be used to analyze labor force transitions for women and children. Regressions with the panel data using entry into the labor force and children's school advancement as dependent variables, with changes in husband's income and employment status as independent variables, will indicate the sensitivity of employment and schooling to short-run economic shocks. Interactions of economic shocks with variables such as husband's eduction will indicate whether responses to economic shocks are more extreme for poor households. The project will also look at the effects of long-run changes, such as improvements in adult schooling, on trends in employment and children's schooling during the 1976-95 period. These predicted effects will be compared with the predicted effects of short-run economic dislocations, providing evidence on the relative importance of short-run and long-run economic change on changes in schooling and employment over this period.

该项目将分析家庭对短期和巴西家庭经济状况的长期变化。这个项目将重点关注中国劳动力参与度的变化关于妇女和儿童以及儿童的受教育程度。该项目是出于对社会影响的担忧许多发展中国家经历的宏观经济波动近几十年来，这些国家和地区都在不断增加。巴西经历了动荡的经济从1976年到1995年的周期，这段时间存在很好的家庭调查数据。这些数据使测试成为可能不断恶化的家庭经济状况是否会产生这样的影响因为降低了孩子们在学校的进步。该项目将使用两个特殊的数据集--PNAD年度家庭调查从1976年到1993年，PME月度就业调查 1982年至1995年。这些调查提供了2000多万人的数据 1976年至今经济动荡时期的个人 1995年。项目将使用PME和PNAD来记录短期运行和工资、就业和学校教育的长期趋势成人和儿童。该项目将开发纵向的 PME的结构，以分析工资和将工资不平等分解为永久性和暂时性组件。PME数据还将用于分析劳动力妇女和儿童的武力过渡。的回归使用进入劳动力和子女学校的面板数据作为因变量的进步，与丈夫的变化收入和就业状况作为自变量，将表明就业和学校教育对短期的敏感性经济冲击。经济冲击与变量的相互作用例如丈夫的教育程度将表明对对于贫困家庭来说，经济冲击更为严重。这个 Project还将考察长期更改的影响，例如改善成人教育、就业趋势和 1976-95年期间的儿童入学情况。这些预测效果将与短期运行的预期效果进行比较经济错位，为亲属提供证据短期和长期经济变革对变革的重要性在这一时期的就学和就业方面。