Improving the seasonal prediction of Australian rainfall extremes

改进澳大利亚极端降雨量的季节性预测

• 批准号: DE180100638
• 负责人: Dr Andrew King
• 金额: $ 23.9万
• 依托单位: The University of Melbourne
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Early Career Researcher Award
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2018-05-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DE180100638
• 关键词: Improving; seasonal; prediction; Australian; rainfall

This project aims to investigate the predictability of Australian extreme rainfall using the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal prediction system and new re-analyses and climate models. Extreme rainfall events in Australia are often associated with loss of life and damage to infrastructure and the environment, but some impacts can be mitigated with improved forecasting. This project will analyse influences of climate change and climate variability on seasonal-scale predictability of extreme rainfall. This will increase our understanding of the processes behind extreme rainfall events and where predictability arises from, and this would result in improvements in forecasting.

该项目旨在利用最新的气象局季节预测系统和新的重新分析和气候模型来研究澳大利亚极端降雨的可预测性。澳大利亚的极端降雨事件通常与生命损失和对基础设施和环境的破坏有关，但一些影响可以通过改进预报来减轻。本项目将分析气候变化和气候变率对极端降雨季节尺度可预测性的影响。这将增加我们对极端降雨事件背后的过程以及可预测性的来源的理解，这将导致预测的改进。