New mathematics to quantify fluctuations and extremes in dynamical systems

量化动力系统波动和极端值的新数学

• 批准号: DP180101223
• 负责人: Prof Gary Froyland
• 金额: $ 28.12万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2021-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP180101223
• 关键词: New; mathematics; quantify; fluctuations; extremes

Many problems in the natural world result from the cumulative effect of extreme events in complex dynamical systems. Dynamical models of ecological and physical processes have internal variables that can combine to produce large observable changes. Quantitative estimation of the variability of these chaotic models is difficult because of the time dependence of the dynamics and their “long memory” due to significant deterministic components. This project aims to develop mathematics and numerics to accurately quantify and assess these complicated variations. The project expects to provide powerful tools to predict harmful outcomes in biogeophysical systems, and assist with the development of mitigation strategies.

自然界中的许多问题都是复杂动力系统中极端事件累积效应的结果。生态和物理过程的动力学模型具有内部变量，这些变量可以联合收割机产生大的可观测变化。这些混沌模型的可变性的定量估计是困难的，因为时间依赖性的动态和他们的“长记忆”，由于显着的确定性组件。该项目旨在发展数学和数值，以准确地量化和评估这些复杂的变化。该项目预计将提供强有力的工具，以预测地球物理系统中的有害后果，并协助制定缓解战略。