OPTIMAL PROGRAMS FOR THE EARLY DETECTION OF DISEASE

计划开发一种用于慢性病筛查的理论模型。 以确定最佳的定期筛查方案。这个 理想的最优方案规定：考试次数，年龄在 第一次检查应该开始哪一项，以及最优 盘问时间表。将找到最佳的筛查方案 效用函数的一般类，它是 检查时发现病例的概率和存在的概率 考试之间的意外事件。该理论将被应用于确定 乳腺癌、子宫颈癌和结肠癌的最佳筛查检查。这个 该模型具有很强的通用性，将适用于其他慢性和非传染性疾病 需要制定定期计划的传染病 考试。将这些模型应用于 特定的疾病可能非常大。它很可能会 带来了相当大的成本节约，同时也增加了 这类项目的效果。

It is planned to develop a theoretical model for the screening of chronic diseases in order to determine optimal periodic screening programs. The ideal optimal program specifies: the number of examinations, the age at which the first examination should start and the optimal inter-examination schedule. Optimal screening programs will be found for a general class of utility functions which is a function of the probabilities of: case detection at examination and that of being incident between examinations. The theory will be applied to determine the optimal screening exams for breast, cervix and colon cancer. The model is very general and will be applicable to other chronic and infectious diseases in which there is need for a program of periodic examinations. The economic consequences of applying these models to specific diseases are potentially very large. It is likely that it will result in considerable savings in cost and, at the same time, increase the efficacy of such programs.