Increasing the resilience of cereal and oilseed rape production to weather damage.

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Severe weather can cause cereal and oilseed rape crops to become uprooted or their stems to break, a process called lodging. This means that the crops do not grow to their full potential, the quantity of seed they produce (the yield) is substantially reduced and the quality of the grain decreases meaning that it cannot be used for certain purposes such as bread making. Lodging makes crops more susceptible to infection by fungi which can produce toxic chemicals which render the grain unusable. These impacts of lodging can substantially reduce the value of a crop and there can be additional costs of drying the grain harvested from lodged crops. Hence, it is estimated that lodging can cost UK farmers £170M in a severe lodging year. High winds can also cause oilseed rape pods to shatter which releases the seeds and they cannot be harvested. This costs UK farmers in excess of £7M per year. By taking appropriate action (e.g. choice of crop variety and how it is managed) it is possible for farmers to reduce the likelihood of lodging and pod shatter. However, farmers need information to guide their decisions and currently this is largely absent.This project will develop a computerised system for predicting the risks of lodging and pod shatter. It will be based on a model of how crops behave under conditions of high wind speed and soil moisture that will be developed from field experiments. The system will calculate the distribution of lodging and pod shatter across a farm that is likely to occur under severe weather conditions. This information is useful to farmers for developing plans in advance of a growing season. It will show farmers how weather damage can be reduced by selecting particular crop varieties to plant in particular fields and by adjusting the timing and density of seed planting. The system will also support farmers to make decisions within a growing season. To do this it will use satellite images to monitor the growth of crops early in the growing season and use this information together with scenarios of different weather conditions during the season to predict which fields or parts of fields are likely to be damaged by weather. This will allow farmers to take action to avoid weather damage in vulnerable fields or parts of fields by controlling the growth of crops (by altering the timing or amount of fertiliser and chemical growth regulators) and by applying chemical pod sealants. Later in the growing season the computerised system will download short-range weather forecast information and use this to predict the risks of lodging in the forthcoming weather conditions. If certain fields are predicted to be vulnerable to lodging then the farmer can arrange to harvest those fields before lodging occurs.Overall, the decision-support tool produced by this project will enable farmers to reduce the risks of weather damage to crops. This will increase farmer's capacity to produce food and reduce unnecessary use of chemicals and energy on farms which will be beneficial for the environment.