Digital Platform For Sustainable Health: A Step Change In Reducing Endemic Disease In Dairy Cattle

乳制品消费的增加以及全球人口的增长意味着，到2067年，全球对牛奶的需求将比今天增加约6000亿公斤。英国是乳制品的净进口国，最近的趋势显示乳制品进口增加，包括原料奶的进口。英国乳制品行业在经济和环境可持续性方面面临着巨大的压力，同时也面临着对农场达到最高健康和福利标准的日益增长的需求。虽然在过去25年中在常见地方病的管理方面取得了一些进展，但特定地方病的发病率仍然高得令人无法接受。具有实质性福利和经济后遗症的主要地方性疾病包括跛行、乳腺炎、酮症、子宫炎，这些疾病在英国的年患病率估计分别为37%、32%、30%和10%。英国乳制品行业的地方病总成本估计为每年5.5亿英镑（全球每年800亿美元）。过渡期和泌乳早期（产犊前30天至产犊后60天）是奶牛的关键和需求旺盛的阶段，在此期间，奶牛的激素、代谢、免疫和生理都发生了重大变化。大约75%的疾病风险（如跛行、乳腺炎、子宫炎）归因于这一时期，大约50%的奶牛受到过渡期相关疾病的影响。有大量证据表明这些疾病是相互关联的。疾病的相互作用在确定奶牛的生产力和繁殖结果方面也很重要。为了在农场管理地方病方面实现阶段性改变，我们认为农民需要全面的解决方案，这种解决方案不只是关注个别疾病，而是涵盖所有地方病，并包括可持续生产。这些解决方案将使农民能够优化育种、扑杀、治疗和预防决策。迄今为止还没有这样的整体工具存在。迄今为止，利用过渡期标记和技术预测奶牛健康状况的相关研究普遍表明，模型一般。其中一个关键原因是所采用的方法使用了数据信号的基本静态特征，而不是动态信号特性，并且还探索了有限范围的特征。下一代人类数字健康平台呈指数级增长，其成功主要是由于利用各种动态时间序列数据来纵向评估复杂信号。这些下一代特征或“弹性指标”提供了预测健康、长寿和幸福的关键信息。在先前研究的基础上，与行业合作伙伴合作，利用现有和不断发展的技术创造新特征，我们提出可以从数字、遗传和生物数据的新组合中开发单个奶牛的“过渡签名”，这将允许预测疾病易感性，并洞察健康的潜在生物机制。ii)在分娩后使用非甾体抗炎药进行关键的针对性干预，将减轻产犊时的亚急性炎症问题，从而改善奶牛的健康状况。本研究提供了一种全新的方法来定义和预测奶牛的整体“可持续健康指数”，该指数将用作农场决策的数字平台。使用共同创造，利益相关者将参与该平台的设计和评估——我们将把该解决方案置于由我们的行业合作伙伴开发的现有商业解决方案REMEDY中。

Increased consumption of dairy products together with the increased growth in global population means there will be a demand for approximately 600 billion kilograms more milk worldwide in 2067 compared to today. The UK is a net importer of dairy products and recent trends show an increase in dairy imports, including the importation of raw milk . The UK dairy industry is facing huge pressures in terms of economic and environmental sustainability and also the increasing demands to attain the highest standards of health and welfare on farms.Whilst some advances have been made in the management of common endemic diseases during the last 25 years, the incidence of specific endemic diseases remain unacceptably high. Key endemic conditions with substantive welfare and economic sequelae include lameness, mastitis, ketosis, metritis and these have an estimated annual prevalence in the UK of 37%, 32%, 30%, 10% respectively. The total cost of endemic disease to the UK dairy industry is estimated at £550M/annum (globally $80Bn/annum). The transition and early lactation period (30 days pre-calving to 60 days post-calving) is a critical and demanding phase for dairy cows, during which cows undergo significant hormonal, metabolic, immunological, and physiological changes. Approximately 75% of disease risk (e.g., lameness, mastitis, metritis) is attributed to this period and approximately 50% of cows are impacted by a transition-related condition. There is wealth of evidence to suggest that these diseases are interrelated. Disease interactions are also important in defining productivity and reproductive outcomes for the cow. To create a step change in managing endemic disease on-farm, we believe farmers require holistic solutions that do not simply focus on individual diseases but that cover all endemic disease and include sustainable production. Such solutions will allow farmers to optimise breeding, culling, treatment and preventive decisions. No such holistic tools exist to date.To date, research related to predicting cow health using transition period markers and technologies has generally shown models are mediocre. One key reason for this is that the methods employed have used basic, static features from data signals rather the dynamic signal properties and also have explored limited range of features. Next generation digital health platforms in humans are growing exponentially and their success is largely due to utilisation of varied range of dynamic time series data to evaluate complex signals on a longitudinal basis. These next generation features or 'resilience indicators' provide key information to predict health, longevity and well-being.Building on previous research, working with industry partners and by utilising existing and evolving technologies to create novel features, we propose an individual cow 'transition signature' can be developed from a novel combination of digital, genetic and biological data that will allow the prediction of disease vulnerability as well as insights into underlying biological mechanisms of health, and ii) a key targeted intervention with NSAIDs after parturition will mitigate the issue of subacute inflammation at calving and in turn lead to an improvement in cow health.This study provide a completely new method to define and predict a holistic "sustainable health index" in dairy cow which will be utilised as digital platform for on farm decision making. Using co-creation stakeholder will input in design and evaluation of this platform- we will house this solution in an existing commercial solution REMEDY as developed by our industry partner.