Digital Platform For Sustainable Health: A Step Change In Reducing Endemic Disease In Dairy Cattle

乳制品消费的增加，加上全球人口的增长，意味着2067年全球对牛奶的需求将比今天增加约6000亿公斤。英国是乳制品净进口国，最近的趋势显示乳制品进口增加，包括原料奶的进口。英国乳制品行业在经济和环境可持续性方面面临巨大压力，同时也面临着对农场达到最高健康和福利标准的日益增长的要求。尽管在过去25年中在常见地方病的管理方面取得了一些进展，但特定地方病的发病率仍然高得令人无法接受。具有实质性福利和经济后遗症的关键地方性疾病包括跛行、乳房炎、酮症、子宫炎，这些疾病在英国的年流行率估计分别为37%、32%、30%和10%。英国奶制品行业的地方病总成本估计为5.5亿英镑/年(全球为800亿美元/年)。过渡期和哺乳期早期(产犊前30天到产后60天)是奶牛的关键和要求很高的阶段，在此期间奶牛会经历显著的激素、代谢、免疫和生理变化。大约75%的疾病风险(例如，跛行、乳房炎、子宫炎)归因于这一时期，大约50%的奶牛受到与过渡相关的疾病的影响。有大量证据表明，这些疾病是相互关联的。疾病的相互作用在确定奶牛的生产力和繁殖结果方面也很重要。为了实现农场地方病管理的阶段性变革，我们认为，农民需要全面的解决方案，不仅要关注个别疾病，而且要涵盖所有地方病，并包括可持续生产。这样的解决方案将使农民能够优化养殖、扑杀、治疗和预防决策。到目前为止，还没有这样的整体工具。到目前为止，与使用过渡期标记和技术预测奶牛健康有关的研究普遍表明，模型是平庸的。这样做的一个关键原因是，所采用的方法使用了来自数据信号的基本静态特征而不是动态信号属性，并且还探索了有限范围的特征。人类的下一代数字健康平台正在呈指数级增长，它们的成功在很大程度上是由于利用各种动态时间序列数据来纵向评估复杂信号。这些下一代特征或“弹性指标”提供了预测健康、长寿和幸福的关键信息。在之前研究的基础上，我们与行业合作伙伴合作，通过利用现有和不断发展的技术来创造新的特征，我们提出可以从数字、遗传和生物数据的新组合中开发出单个奶牛的“过渡特征”，这些数据将允许预测疾病的脆弱性以及对潜在的健康生物机制的洞察。这项研究提供了一种全新的方法来定义和预测奶牛的整体“可持续健康指数”，该指数将被用作农场决策的数字平台。使用联合创建利益相关者将参与此平台的设计和评估-我们将在我们的行业合作伙伴开发的现有商业解决方案补救方案中包含此解决方案。

Increased consumption of dairy products together with the increased growth in global population means there will be a demand for approximately 600 billion kilograms more milk worldwide in 2067 compared to today. The UK is a net importer of dairy products and recent trends show an increase in dairy imports, including the importation of raw milk . The UK dairy industry is facing huge pressures in terms of economic and environmental sustainability and also the increasing demands to attain the highest standards of health and welfare on farms.Whilst some advances have been made in the management of common endemic diseases during the last 25 years, the incidence of specific endemic diseases remain unacceptably high. Key endemic conditions with substantive welfare and economic sequelae include lameness, mastitis, ketosis, metritis and these have an estimated annual prevalence in the UK of 37%, 32%, 30%, 10% respectively. The total cost of endemic disease to the UK dairy industry is estimated at £550M/annum (globally $80Bn/annum). The transition and early lactation period (30 days pre-calving to 60 days post-calving) is a critical and demanding phase for dairy cows, during which cows undergo significant hormonal, metabolic, immunological, and physiological changes. Approximately 75% of disease risk (e.g., lameness, mastitis, metritis) is attributed to this period and approximately 50% of cows are impacted by a transition-related condition. There is wealth of evidence to suggest that these diseases are interrelated. Disease interactions are also important in defining productivity and reproductive outcomes for the cow. To create a step change in managing endemic disease on-farm, we believe farmers require holistic solutions that do not simply focus on individual diseases but that cover all endemic disease and include sustainable production. Such solutions will allow farmers to optimise breeding, culling, treatment and preventive decisions. No such holistic tools exist to date.To date, research related to predicting cow health using transition period markers and technologies has generally shown models are mediocre. One key reason for this is that the methods employed have used basic, static features from data signals rather the dynamic signal properties and also have explored limited range of features. Next generation digital health platforms in humans are growing exponentially and their success is largely due to utilisation of varied range of dynamic time series data to evaluate complex signals on a longitudinal basis. These next generation features or 'resilience indicators' provide key information to predict health, longevity and well-being.Building on previous research, working with industry partners and by utilising existing and evolving technologies to create novel features, we propose an individual cow 'transition signature' can be developed from a novel combination of digital, genetic and biological data that will allow the prediction of disease vulnerability as well as insights into underlying biological mechanisms of health, and ii) a key targeted intervention with NSAIDs after parturition will mitigate the issue of subacute inflammation at calving and in turn lead to an improvement in cow health.This study provide a completely new method to define and predict a holistic "sustainable health index" in dairy cow which will be utilised as digital platform for on farm decision making. Using co-creation stakeholder will input in design and evaluation of this platform- we will house this solution in an existing commercial solution REMEDY as developed by our industry partner.