Digital Platform For Sustainable Health: A Step Change In Reducing Endemic Disease In Dairy Cattle

乳制品消费量的增加以及全球人口的增长意味着到2067年，全球对牛奶的需求将比现在增加约6000亿公斤。英国是乳制品的净进口国，最近的趋势显示乳制品进口增加，包括原料奶的进口。英国乳制品行业在经济和环境可持续性方面面临着巨大的压力，同时也面临着越来越多的要求，以达到最高标准的健康和福利的农场。虽然在过去的25年中，在管理常见的地方病方面取得了一些进展，但特定地方病的发病率仍然高得令人无法接受。具有实质性福利和经济后遗症的主要地方病包括跛行、乳腺炎、酮病、子宫炎，这些疾病在英国的估计年患病率分别为37%、32%、30%、10%。英国乳制品行业的地方病总成本估计为5.5亿英镑/年（全球为800亿美元/年）。过渡期和早期泌乳期（产犊前30天至产犊后60天）是奶牛的关键和苛刻阶段，在此期间，奶牛经历显著的激素、代谢、免疫和生理变化。大约75%的疾病风险（例如，跛行、乳腺炎、子宫炎）归因于这一时期，大约50%的奶牛受到过渡期相关疾病的影响。有大量证据表明，这些疾病是相互关联的。疾病相互作用在确定奶牛的生产力和生殖结果方面也很重要。为了在农场管理地方病方面实现一个阶段性的变化，我们认为农民需要整体解决方案，这些解决方案不仅关注个别疾病，而且涵盖所有地方病，包括可持续生产。这些解决方案将使农民能够优化育种，淘汰，治疗和预防决策。到目前为止，与使用过渡期标记和技术预测奶牛健康相关的研究通常表明模型是平庸的。其中一个关键原因是所采用的方法使用了来自数据信号的基本静态特征，而不是动态信号特性，并且还探索了有限的特征范围。人类的下一代数字健康平台正在呈指数级增长，它们的成功在很大程度上归功于利用各种动态时间序列数据来纵向评估复杂信号。这些下一代功能或“弹性指标”为预测健康、寿命和福祉提供了关键信息。在之前研究的基础上，与行业合作伙伴合作，并利用现有和不断发展的技术来创造新功能，我们提出了个体奶牛“过渡特征”可以从数字、遗传和生物数据，这些数据将有助于预测疾病的脆弱性以及深入了解健康的基本生物机制，和ii）分娩后NSAID的关键靶向干预将减轻产犊时的亚急性炎症问题，进而改善奶牛健康。一种全新的方法来定义和预测奶牛的整体“可持续健康指数”，该指数将用作农场决策的数字平台。使用共同创造利益相关者将输入在设计和评估这个平台-我们将房子这个解决方案在现有的商业解决方案REMEDY由我们的行业合作伙伴开发。

Increased consumption of dairy products together with the increased growth in global population means there will be a demand for approximately 600 billion kilograms more milk worldwide in 2067 compared to today. The UK is a net importer of dairy products and recent trends show an increase in dairy imports, including the importation of raw milk . The UK dairy industry is facing huge pressures in terms of economic and environmental sustainability and also the increasing demands to attain the highest standards of health and welfare on farms.Whilst some advances have been made in the management of common endemic diseases during the last 25 years, the incidence of specific endemic diseases remain unacceptably high. Key endemic conditions with substantive welfare and economic sequelae include lameness, mastitis, ketosis, metritis and these have an estimated annual prevalence in the UK of 37%, 32%, 30%, 10% respectively. The total cost of endemic disease to the UK dairy industry is estimated at £550M/annum (globally $80Bn/annum). The transition and early lactation period (30 days pre-calving to 60 days post-calving) is a critical and demanding phase for dairy cows, during which cows undergo significant hormonal, metabolic, immunological, and physiological changes. Approximately 75% of disease risk (e.g., lameness, mastitis, metritis) is attributed to this period and approximately 50% of cows are impacted by a transition-related condition. There is wealth of evidence to suggest that these diseases are interrelated. Disease interactions are also important in defining productivity and reproductive outcomes for the cow. To create a step change in managing endemic disease on-farm, we believe farmers require holistic solutions that do not simply focus on individual diseases but that cover all endemic disease and include sustainable production. Such solutions will allow farmers to optimise breeding, culling, treatment and preventive decisions. No such holistic tools exist to date.To date, research related to predicting cow health using transition period markers and technologies has generally shown models are mediocre. One key reason for this is that the methods employed have used basic, static features from data signals rather the dynamic signal properties and also have explored limited range of features. Next generation digital health platforms in humans are growing exponentially and their success is largely due to utilisation of varied range of dynamic time series data to evaluate complex signals on a longitudinal basis. These next generation features or 'resilience indicators' provide key information to predict health, longevity and well-being.Building on previous research, working with industry partners and by utilising existing and evolving technologies to create novel features, we propose an individual cow 'transition signature' can be developed from a novel combination of digital, genetic and biological data that will allow the prediction of disease vulnerability as well as insights into underlying biological mechanisms of health, and ii) a key targeted intervention with NSAIDs after parturition will mitigate the issue of subacute inflammation at calving and in turn lead to an improvement in cow health.This study provide a completely new method to define and predict a holistic "sustainable health index" in dairy cow which will be utilised as digital platform for on farm decision making. Using co-creation stakeholder will input in design and evaluation of this platform- we will house this solution in an existing commercial solution REMEDY as developed by our industry partner.