DETERMINANTS OF THE TIMING OF SECOND AND THIRD BIRTHS

这项研究提出的是一个检查的时间第二和第三 1955年至1982年期间美国妇女的生育情况，使用数据 在全国家庭成长调查（NSFG）的第一至第三周期收集。 这个数据库提供了详细的出生史和婚姻史， 以及背景特征，对于一个月以上的大量妇女来说， 在此期间，出生时间一般都在迅速变化。 是 与NSFG合并的是各种聚合或宏观层面的结构 提供生育决定背景的变量 进行了 将进行的研究将：1）将出生时间视为 动态过程，认识到重要的决定因素可能会在 从上一次出生开始的各种持续时间; 2）将出生时间视为函数 包括历史时间（第一次/第二次出生） 队列），个体时间（从上一次出生的持续时间）和各种 背景和上下文因素; 3）分别估计模型， 不同种族/族裔群体; 4）提供重要的 直观可解释的标准化累积协变量 存活至不同期限的妇女比例（从上一次分娩算起） 没有生育; 5）考虑到潜在的 婚姻状况在决定生育时间方面的重要作用;以及 6)提供NSFG中调查效果的估计。 线性逻辑 回归和比值比提供了基本的方法学工具， 在分析中使用。 社会科学家已经记录了出生时间的后果， 婚姻解体、家庭结构、妇女角色和社会经济 well-being. 这项研究将确定与变化相关的因素， 出生时间，并将证明对学术界和政策制定者都有用。

The research proposed is an examination of the timing of second and third births occurring to American women over the period 1955-1982, using data collected in Cycles I-III of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). This data base provides a detailed history of birth and marital histories, as well as background characteristics, for a large number of women over a period during which birth timing in general was shifting rapidly. To be merged with the NSFG are a variety of aggregated or macro-level structural variables that provide the context within which fertility decisions are made. The research to be conducted will: 1) view birth timing as a dynamic process, recognizing that important determinants may shift at various durations from previous birth; 2) view birth timing as a function of several dimensions, including historical time (first/second-birth cohort), individual time (duration from previous birth) and various background and contextual factors; 3) estimate models separately for various race/ethnic groups; 4) provide estimates of the impact of important covariates in terms of intuitively interpretable standardized cumulative proportions of women surviving to various durations (from previous birth) without having a subsequent birth; 5) take into account the potentially important role that marital status plays in determining birth timing; and 6) provide estimates of survey effects in the NSFG. Linear logistic regression and odds ratios provide the basic methodological tools to be used in the analysis. Social scientists have documented the consequences of birth timing for marital dissolution, household structure, women's roles and socioeconomic well-being. This research will identify factors associated with changes in birth timing and will prove useful to both academics and policy makers.