EFFECTS OF COMMUNITY LEVEL FACTORS ON FERTILITY

社区层面因素对生育力的影响

• 批准号: 3322040
• 负责人: RICHARD E BILSBORROW
• 金额: $ 12.16万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-01-01 至 1989-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3322040
• 关键词: Mexico; Philippines; community; family planning; fertility; household; human population study; mathematical model; model design /development; population survey; questionnaires; social model; socioeconomics

Our aims are: (1) Develop a complete conceptual model of the determinants of fertility which incorporates community level factors. This model expands upon the economic model of household demand for children by explicitly including a broader range of individual and household variables, as well as community factors. While the ultimate dependent variable is recent fertility, determinants of demand for children and use of fertility regulation will also be investigates. (2) Develop a conceptual view of the processes by which the environment influences fertility, which arises from the theoretical model. (3) Develop appropriate procedures for estimating the model and its key components. Advanced econometric procedures will be used to estimate individual, household and community determinants. Careful consideration will be given to whether variables should be considered exogenous or endogenous (based on the theoretical model), to appropriate temporal relationships, and to assumptions about the error structure. (4) Estimate the model for two developing countries using unusually rich data sets. The countries and regions proposed are the Bicol region of the Philippines and Mexico. The data will permit testing a more realistic and complex model of household decision making, involving developing and testing better measures of the dependent and independent variables. (5) Simulation will be used to help pinpoint areas where missing data are likely to lead to model misspecification and biased estimates of parameters and to conduct policy and behavioral simulations using estimated parameters for the two countries, thereby helping identify future data collection needs. Implementation of the project should lead to an appreciation of the value of a complete theory of household fertility decision making for clearly specifying hypotheses about how community-level factors influence fertility. This will permit more valid policy inferences -- a major long-term objective. Similarly, identifying areas of needed data collection relates directly to another major objective to participate in questionnaire and survey/sample design in a future survey developing country to progress towards filling the gaps.

我们的目标是： (1) 开发一个完整的决定因素概念模型 结合了社区层面因素的生育率。 这个型号 扩展了家庭对儿童需求的经济模型 明确包括更广泛的个人和家庭变量， 还有社区因素。 虽然最终的因变量是 最近的生育率、儿童需求的决定因素和生育力的利用 监管也将受到调查。 (2) 形成一个概念视图 环境影响生育力的过程 从理论模型来看。 (3) 制定适当的程序 估计模型及其关键组件。 高级计量经济学 将使用程序来估计个人、家庭和社区 决定因素。 将仔细考虑变量是否 应被视为外源性或内源性（基于理论） 模型），适当的时间关系，以及关于的假设 错误结构。 (4) 估计两个发展中国家的模型 使用异常丰富的数据集。 拟议的国家和地区是 菲律宾和墨西哥的比科尔地区。 这些数据将允许测试 更现实和复杂的家庭决策模型，包括 开发和测试更好的依赖和独立衡量标准 变量。 (5) 模拟将用于帮助查明哪些领域 缺失数据可能会导致模型指定错误和有偏差 估计参数并进行政策和行为模拟 使用两国的估计参数，从而帮助确定 未来的数据收集需求。 项目的实施应导致价值升值 家庭生育决策的完整理论 详细说明关于社区层面因素如何影响的假设 生育能力。 这将允许更有效的政策推论——一个重大的 长期目标。 同样，确定所需数据的区域 收集与参与的另一个主要目标直接相关 未来调查开发中的问卷和调查/样本设计 国家在填补空白方面取得进展。