DEMOGRAPHY OF LOCAL MARRIAGE MARKETS

本地婚姻市场的人口统计》是一个完全修订的版本 1989年1月首次提交给研究科的一项提案的摘要。 的 主要目的是检验基于空间的婚姻市场的影响 关于男女初婚过渡模式的条件， 在美国的非自愿交配。 一个指导性假设是， 当地婚姻市场的机会和限制影响（1）程度 （2）婚姻的选择;（3）婚姻的选择。 选择最适合于分析当地环境的地理尺度， 婚姻市场是经验主义的。 因此，第一个目标是 评估婚姻市场领域的几种不同定义。 我们 使用1980年的劳动力市场来定义这些地区， 1988年地区资源中可用的县和多县单位 文件. 婚姻市场状况指标，如当地经济状况 机会和配偶的可用性，然后包括在生态 当地比例的模特结婚了。 该分析涉及一个 以前研究的基本局限性，这是隐含的假设 婚姻市场是全国性的，而不是地方性的。 第二个目标是拟合男性和女性的半参数风险模型， 女性过渡到第一次婚姻。 具体来说，当地的婚姻市场 指标首次与个人婚姻史合并 数据来自1979-1988年的全国青年纵向调查 （NLSY）。 这些新合并的数据提供了一个独特的机会， 婚姻状况转变的“背景”模型。 据我们所知，没有 另一项研究将当地婚姻市场指标纳入了行为指标， 向初婚过渡的模式。 最后，第三个目标是检查当地的影响， 婚姻市场条件对选择性交配模式的影响。 养老金市场指标与美国联邦储备委员会的已婚夫妇记录有关。 为了评估它们对组内和组外模式的影响， 婚姻 我们讨论各种对数线性模型，特别是 适合于确定交叉分类中的关联模式 丈夫和妻子的社会特征。 我们还描述了 “竞争风险”的风险模型的婚姻同性婚姻或异性婚姻，使用 链接的NSLY/CNOS-D数据库。

The Demography of Local Marriage Markets" is a completely revised version of a proposal first submitted to the study section in January 1989. The main objective is to examine the effects of spatially-based marriage-market conditions on male and female patterns of first marriage transitions and assortative mating in the United States. A guiding hypothesis is that local marriage-market opportunities and constraints affect (1) the extent and timing of marriage; and (2) the choice of marital partners. The choice of a geographic scale most appropriate to the analysis of local marriage markets is empirical. Consequently, the first objective is to evaluate several alternative definitions of marriage-market areas. We define these areas using labor markets identified in the 1980 PUMS-D file, and counties and multicounty units available in the 1988 Area Resource File. Indicators of marriage-market conditions such as local economic opportunities and spouse availability are then included in ecological models of local-area proportions ever-married. This analysis addresses a basic limitation of previous research, which is the implicit assumption that marriage markets are national rather than local in scope. The second objective is to fit semi-parametric hazards models of male and female transitions to first marriage. Specifically, local marriage-market indicators are merged for the first time with individual marital history data from the 1979-1988 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). These newly merged data provide a unique opportunity to build true "contextual" models of marital status transitions. To our knowledge, no other study has included local marriage-market indicators in behavioral models of the transition to first marriage. Finally, a third objective is to examine the effects of local marriage-market conditions on patterns of assortative mating. Marriage-market indicators are linked to married-couple records from the PUMS-D in order to evaluate their effects on patterns of in- and out-group marriage. We discuss various log-linear models that are especially appropriate to identifying patterns of association in cross-classifications of husbands' and wives' social characteristics. We also describe it "competing-risk" hazards models of marital homogamy or heterogamy, using the linked NSLY/PUMS-D database.