EDUCATION, AGE AT MARRIAGE AND LIFE CYCLE FERTILITY

该项目研究教育对妇女生命周期的影响 生育计划对结婚年龄和婚姻状况的影响 生育控制 它将探讨如何提供教育 资源和妇女的实际受教育程度影响着她， 通过对结婚年龄的影响来决定要孩子 以及她改变避孕措施的能力和愿望， 对家庭出生和死亡的反应。 该项目开发了一种生活 循环随机优化模型，允许广泛的 重要的相互作用，它探讨了发现有意义的方法， 经济和行为关系，需要更少的假设， 动态优化模型的大多数现有应用。 提出了一种 生命历程事件的详细统计模型，（1）如下 直接从理论模型的隐式结构和（2） 它明确地包含了生育力的许多生物决定因素。 理论模型还表明， 随着时间的推移，许多行为的决定因素，研究设计 基于离散因子来控制这种潜在偏差的方法 不可观测变量的近似值， 内分泌 这些模型包含了可能的内膨胀， 教育和结婚年龄决定与生命周期的婚姻 Mroz和Weir（1990）开发的生育力模型。 模特们展示了很多 对教育作用的准确评估， 对孩子的需求。 三个正在经历生育率转变的人口提供了以下数据： 这个分析：法国农村在生育率转型时期， （INED），以及现代突尼斯（DHS）和津巴布韦（DHS）。 过硬措施 时变的上下文和背景变量可以被构造 对于每一个人来说。 这些额外措施允许 详细的敏感性分析的实证意义 在估计影响时控制潜在的内生性 教育和结婚年龄对生命周期生育率的影响。

This project examines the impact of education on a woman's life cycle fertility plans through its effects on age at marriage and marital fertility control . It will explore how the availability of educational resources and the actual educational attainment of a woman influence her decisions to have children through their impacts on her age at marriage and on her ability and desire to modify her contraceptive efforts in response to births and deaths in the family. The project develops a life cycle stochastic optimization model that permits a wide range of important interactions, and it explores methods for uncovering meaningful economic and behavioral relationships that require fewer assumptions than most existing applications of dynamic optimization models. It proposes a detailed statistical model of life course events that (1) follows directly from the implicit structure of the theoretical model and (2) incorporates explicitly many of the biological determinants of fertility. The theoretical model also suggests important sources of endogeneity for many of the determinants of behavior over time, and the study devises methods to control for such potential biases based upon discrete factor approximations for the unobservable variables giving rise to statistical endogeneity. These models incorporate the possible endogeneity of the education and age at marriage decisions with the life cycle marital fertility model developed by Mroz and Weir (1990). The models show much promise for uncovering an accurate assessment of the role of education on the demand for children. Three populations undergoing fertility transitions provide the data for this analysis: rural France around the time of the fertility transition (INED), and modern Tunisia (DHS) and Zimbabwe (DHS). Excellent measures of time varying contextual and background variables can be constructed for each of these populations. These additional measures permit a detailed sensitivity analysis of the empirical significance of controlling for the potential endogeneities when estimating the impacts of education and age at marriage on life cycle fertility.