EDUCATION, AGE AT MARRIAGE AND LIFE CYCLE FERTILITY

这个项目考察了教育对女性生命周期的影响。 生育率通过其对结婚年龄和结婚年龄的影响进行计划 生育控制。它将探索教育的可用性如何 资源和女性的实际教育程度影响着她 生孩子的决定对她结婚年龄的影响 以及她修改避孕措施的能力和愿望 对家庭中出生和死亡的反应。这个项目发展了一种生活 循环随机优化模型，允许大范围的 重要的交互，它探索了揭示有意义的 经济和行为关系需要的假设比 现有的大多数动态优化模型的应用。它提出了一种 详细的生命历程事件统计模型(1) 直接从隐含结构的理论模型和(2) 明确包含了生育力的许多生物学决定因素。 理论模型也提出了内生性的重要来源 随着时间的推移，行为的许多决定因素，这项研究设计了 基于离散因素的控制这种潜在偏差的方法 引起统计的不可观测变量的近似 内生性。这些模型包含了可能的内生性 婚姻的教育程度和年龄与婚姻生命周期的关系 Mroz和Weir(1990)提出的生育模型。这些模型展示了很多东西 承诺对教育的作用进行准确的评估 对孩子的需求。 三个正在经历生育转变的人口提供了以下数据 以下分析：生育率转变时期的法国农村 (INED)、现代突尼斯(DHS)和津巴布韦(DHS)。优秀的措施 可以构造随时间变化的上下文和背景变量的 对于这些种群中的每一个。这些额外措施允许 详细的敏感性分析的经验意义。 在估计影响时控制潜在的内生性 受教育程度和结婚年龄对生命周期生育率的影响。

This project examines the impact of education on a woman's life cycle fertility plans through its effects on age at marriage and marital fertility control . It will explore how the availability of educational resources and the actual educational attainment of a woman influence her decisions to have children through their impacts on her age at marriage and on her ability and desire to modify her contraceptive efforts in response to births and deaths in the family. The project develops a life cycle stochastic optimization model that permits a wide range of important interactions, and it explores methods for uncovering meaningful economic and behavioral relationships that require fewer assumptions than most existing applications of dynamic optimization models. It proposes a detailed statistical model of life course events that (1) follows directly from the implicit structure of the theoretical model and (2) incorporates explicitly many of the biological determinants of fertility. The theoretical model also suggests important sources of endogeneity for many of the determinants of behavior over time, and the study devises methods to control for such potential biases based upon discrete factor approximations for the unobservable variables giving rise to statistical endogeneity. These models incorporate the possible endogeneity of the education and age at marriage decisions with the life cycle marital fertility model developed by Mroz and Weir (1990). The models show much promise for uncovering an accurate assessment of the role of education on the demand for children. Three populations undergoing fertility transitions provide the data for this analysis: rural France around the time of the fertility transition (INED), and modern Tunisia (DHS) and Zimbabwe (DHS). Excellent measures of time varying contextual and background variables can be constructed for each of these populations. These additional measures permit a detailed sensitivity analysis of the empirical significance of controlling for the potential endogeneities when estimating the impacts of education and age at marriage on life cycle fertility.