Multiscale Modelling to maximise Demand Side Management (Part 2)

现代能源系统是复杂的技术、社会和经济努力，是由一系列广泛的要素组合而成，并由包括消费者、供应商和监管者在内的许多多方行为者的行动塑造。虽然通过优化这些系统的某些部分可以实现一些收益，但大幅减少能源需求是一项重大挑战，需要所有相关行为者改变行为。在这项提案中，我们希望利用数字技术的能力来监测，建模和表示能源需求的运行和影响，以促进这些系统的变化。这通常是通过一系列行动和措施来实现的，通常称为需求侧管理（DSM）。然而，目前的需求侧管理和减少能源需求的方法往往完全从消费者的角度来看，主要集中在行为变化的重要性和能源显示器（或智能电表）作为这些变化的主要驱动力的作用。这只强调了现代和日益复杂的能源系统的一部分，实际上需要全面理解，以确保变化将产生重大和可持续的影响。因此，本建议采用端到端的方法，利用数字技术了解整个能源供应系统（从发电到输电、配电和利用），在设计上，我们会针对最大的影响点作出改变，并充分优化所有涉及的系统元素，以获得这些改变的好处。我们研究的最终目的，是要解答需求侧管理的重大潜在效益，可以通过提供统一、通用和经济实惠的数字基础设施来最大限度地提高能源效率，使我们能够在整个能源系统中进行推理，并支持在动态多尺度DSM模型之间交换信息的新方法。预期的结果是，不仅可以访问并向所有相关利益相关者提供定量信息（例如，修改后的有功/无功功率需求量），而且还可以提供定性信息（例如，导致需求变化的实际负荷组合和负荷部门是什么，以及它们的明确影响是什么）。特别是，我们希望将能够影响消费者行为的现代数字技术的使用与最佳应对能源需求变化的能力联系起来。该项目团队汇集了具有普适计算，复杂系统建模和以用户为中心的开发背景的研究人员，与专注于真实的世界能源系统和能源经济的研究人员合作。我们将采用用户驱动的方法来设计和开发一系列计算模型和数字技术，与消费者、能源供应公司和政府机构密切合作，探索一系列基于低成本传感和显示技术的令人兴奋的最先进的创新。该项目团队与英国和国际上的主要工业，公共部门和学术团体有着密切的联系，这些联系将用于确保拟议的研究产生最大的影响。可自由进入任何已开发的系统，以促进变革，并将维持一个可公开访问的网站，以传播结果。我们打算通过Horizon DE Hub的开源分发提供任何软件产品和设备设计。我们将在现有的公共传播工作的基础上，强调道德和社会影响问题，作为这项工作的重要特点。

Modern energy systems are complex technical, social and economic endeavours formed through the assembly of a broad set of elements and shaped by the actions of many multiple actors including consumers, suppliers and regulators. While some gains can be achieved by optimising parts of these systems, significant reduction in energy demand is a major challenge requiring changes in behaviour from all the actors involved. In this proposal we wish to exploit the ability of digital technologies to monitor, model and represent the operation and effects of energy demand to promote changes in these systems. This is often realised through a set of actions and measures, commonly known as demand side management (DSM). Current approaches to DSM and reduction of energy demand, however, are often viewed entirely from the consumer's perspective, concentrating mostly on the importance of behavioural changes and the role of energy displays (or smart meters ) as main drivers of these changes. This emphasises only one part of modern and increasingly complex energy systems, which actually need to be understood in their entirety to ensure that changes will have both significant and sustainable impact. Accordingly, this proposal adopts an end-to-end approach to exploit digital technology to understand the overall energy supply system (from generation to transmission, distribution and utilisation), in which devised changes are targeted at the points of maximum impact and all involved system elements are fully optimised to reap the benefits of these changes.The ultimate aim of our research is to answer how the significant potential benefits of DSM can be maximised through the provision of a unified, versatile and affordable digital infrastructure that allows us to reason across a whole energy system and supports new ways to exchange information between dynamic multiscale DSM models. The expected outcome is access to, and presentation of, not just quantitative information (e.g. the amount of modified active/reactive power demands), but also qualitative information (e.g. what are the actual load mixes and load sectors responsible for the changes in demand and what are their definite effects) to all involved stakeholders. In particular, we wish to link the use of modern digital technologies, capable of impacting the behaviour of the consumers, with the ability to optimally respond to the resulting changes in energy demand. The project team brings together researchers with a background in ubiquitous computing, complex systems modelling and user centred development to work with researcher focusing of real world energy systems and energy economics. We will adopt a user driven approach to the design and development of a series of computational models and digital technologies working closely with consumers, energy supply companies and government bodies to explore a set of exciting state-of-the-art innovations based on low-cost sensing and display technologies. The project team has strong connections with key industrial, public sector and academic groups in UK and internationally, and these will be used to ensure that the proposed research will have maximum impact. Free access to any developed system to promote change, and a publicly accessible web site will be maintained for the dissemination of the results. We intend to make any software artefacts and device designs available via open source distribution through the Horizon DE Hub. We will build upon our existing public dissemination work to emphasise issues of ethics and societal impact as important features of this work.