Multiscale Modelling to maximise Demand Side Management (Part 2)

现代能源系统是复杂的技术、社会和经济努力，通过一系列广泛的要素的组合而形成，并由包括消费者、供应商和监管机构在内的许多多方行动者的行动形成。虽然通过优化这些系统的某些部分可以获得一些收益，但大幅减少能源需求是一项重大挑战，需要所有相关参与者改变行为。在这个建议中，我们希望利用数字技术的能力来监测、建模和表示能源需求的运行和影响，以促进这些系统的变化。这通常是通过一系列行动和措施来实现的，通常被称为需求侧管理（DSM）。然而，目前的DSM和减少能源需求的方法往往完全从消费者的角度来看，主要集中在行为改变的重要性和能源显示（或智能电表）作为这些变化的主要驱动因素的作用。这只强调了现代和日益复杂的能源系统的一部分，实际上需要从整体上理解，以确保变化将产生重大和可持续的影响。因此，该提案采用端到端方法，利用数字技术来了解整个能源供应系统（从发电到传输、分配和利用），其中设计的变化针对最大影响点，所有涉及的系统元素都得到充分优化，以获得这些变化的好处。我们研究的最终目的是回答如何通过提供一个统一的、通用的和负担得起的数字基础设施来最大限度地发挥DSM的潜在优势，使我们能够在整个能源系统中进行推理，并支持在动态多尺度DSM模型之间交换信息的新方法。预期的结果不仅是定量信息（例如有功/无功需求的变化量），而且是定性信息（例如实际的负载组合是什么，负责需求变化的负载部门是什么，以及它们的确定影响是什么）的访问和呈现给所有相关利益相关者。特别是，我们希望将能够影响消费者行为的现代数字技术的使用与对由此产生的能源需求变化做出最佳反应的能力联系起来。项目团队汇集了具有普适性计算、复杂系统建模和以用户为中心的开发背景的研究人员，与专注于现实世界能源系统和能源经济学的研究人员合作。我们将采用用户驱动的方法来设计和开发一系列计算模型和数字技术，与消费者、能源供应公司和政府机构密切合作，探索一系列基于低成本传感和显示技术的令人兴奋的最新创新。项目团队与英国和国际上的主要工业、公共部门和学术团体有着密切的联系，这些将用于确保拟议的研究将产生最大的影响。免费使用任何已开发的系统，以促进改革，并将维持一个可向公众开放的网站，以传播调查结果。我们打算通过Horizon DE Hub的开源分发，使任何软件工件和设备设计可用。我们会在现有的公众传播工作的基础上，强调道德问题和社会影响是这项工作的重要特点。

Modern energy systems are complex technical, social and economic endeavours formed through the assembly of a broad set of elements and shaped by the actions of many multiple actors including consumers, suppliers and regulators. While some gains can be achieved by optimising parts of these systems, significant reduction in energy demand is a major challenge requiring changes in behaviour from all the actors involved. In this proposal we wish to exploit the ability of digital technologies to monitor, model and represent the operation and effects of energy demand to promote changes in these systems. This is often realised through a set of actions and measures, commonly known as demand side management (DSM). Current approaches to DSM and reduction of energy demand, however, are often viewed entirely from the consumer's perspective, concentrating mostly on the importance of behavioural changes and the role of energy displays (or smart meters ) as main drivers of these changes. This emphasises only one part of modern and increasingly complex energy systems, which actually need to be understood in their entirety to ensure that changes will have both significant and sustainable impact. Accordingly, this proposal adopts an end-to-end approach to exploit digital technology to understand the overall energy supply system (from generation to transmission, distribution and utilisation), in which devised changes are targeted at the points of maximum impact and all involved system elements are fully optimised to reap the benefits of these changes.The ultimate aim of our research is to answer how the significant potential benefits of DSM can be maximised through the provision of a unified, versatile and affordable digital infrastructure that allows us to reason across a whole energy system and supports new ways to exchange information between dynamic multiscale DSM models. The expected outcome is access to, and presentation of, not just quantitative information (e.g. the amount of modified active/reactive power demands), but also qualitative information (e.g. what are the actual load mixes and load sectors responsible for the changes in demand and what are their definite effects) to all involved stakeholders. In particular, we wish to link the use of modern digital technologies, capable of impacting the behaviour of the consumers, with the ability to optimally respond to the resulting changes in energy demand. The project team brings together researchers with a background in ubiquitous computing, complex systems modelling and user centred development to work with researcher focusing of real world energy systems and energy economics. We will adopt a user driven approach to the design and development of a series of computational models and digital technologies working closely with consumers, energy supply companies and government bodies to explore a set of exciting state-of-the-art innovations based on low-cost sensing and display technologies. The project team has strong connections with key industrial, public sector and academic groups in UK and internationally, and these will be used to ensure that the proposed research will have maximum impact. Free access to any developed system to promote change, and a publicly accessible web site will be maintained for the dissemination of the results. We intend to make any software artefacts and device designs available via open source distribution through the Horizon DE Hub. We will build upon our existing public dissemination work to emphasise issues of ethics and societal impact as important features of this work.