DETERMINANTS OF OUTCOME OF SEVERE MENTAL DISORDER

这一申请应使世卫组织能够结束其合作项目， 严重精神障碍预后影响因素的研究 多文化的流行病学和临床调查， 1，531人一生中第一次接触任何“帮助”， 在10个国家的13个地理区域， 为期两年，并在入学时使用标准化工具进行评估 以及1年和2年随访时。 数据收集，包括 所有研究中心都完成了后续行动， 研究计划已转交世卫组织总部处理 （其余的预计在1985年5月底以前完成）。 基本 分析病例发现过程、社会人口统计学、临床和 初始评价时队列的诊断特征，以及 精神分裂症和相关疾病的年龄和性别特异性首次接触发病率 疾病，已经进行了一些初步报告， 制备 所要求的资金应使世卫组织能够实现两个具体目标， 目的：（一）完成所有研究的清理、检查和归档 数据和编制所有变量的基本频率表;（ii） 进行最基本的数据分析，以完成 概述研究主要结论的研究专著。 此外，根据已经进行的分析， （a）有助于跨文化分析， 精神分裂症的疾病分类学（包括探索精神分裂症的潜在因素） 发展中国家和发达国家的不同进程和结果）;（B） 精神分裂症病程和结局的经验预测因素分析; 及（c）探讨与文化有关的表现特征， 精神分裂症的病程 统计的总体战略 分析将是探索性的，但某些特定的假设，特别是 与多元文化数据是否支持这一概念有关的问题 精神分裂症作为一组疾病或支持单一疾病模型， 会得到考验 将优先进行统计分析 对于简单的技术和对数线性模型，但多变量方法将 也可以酌情使用。

This application should enable WHO to bring to closure its Collaborative Study on Determinants of Outcome of Severe Mental Disorders, a multi-cultural epidemiological and clinical investigation in which a total of 1,531 persons making a first-in-lifetime contact with any "helping agency" in 13 geographical areas in 10 countries have been identified over a period of two years, and assessed with standardized instruments at intake and at 1-year and 2-year follow-up. Data collection, including on follow-up, has been completed in all research centres, and about 75% of the research schedules have been transferred to WHO Headquarters for processing and analysis (the remainder are expected by the end of May 1985). Basic analyses of the case-finding process, sociodemographic, clinical and diagnostic features of the cohort at initial evaluation, as well as of the age- and sex-specific first-contact incidence of schizophrenia and related disorders, have been performed and a number of preliminary reports prepared. The funds requested should enable WHO to achieve two specific aims: (i) to complete the cleaning, checking and filing of all research data and prepare basic frequency tabulations of all variables; (ii) to carry out most essential data analyses that should enable the completion of a research monograph outlining the major conclusions of the study. Further, to analyses already performed, the outstanding priorities for the period of this grant will be: (a) analyses contributing to a transcultural nosology of schizophrenia (including exploration of factors underlying the differential course and outcome in developing and developed countries); (b) analysis of empirical predictors of course and outcome in schizophrenia; and (c) exploration of culture-related features of the manifestation and course of schizophrenia disorders. The overall strategy of the statistical analysis will be exploratory, but certain specific hypotheses, especially those linked to the question whether multicultural data support the notion of schizophrenia as a group of conditions or favour a single-disease model, will be tested. Statistical analysis will be carried out with preference for simple techniques and log-linear models but multivariate methods will also be applied as appropriate.