Adaptation and Resilience of Coastal Energy Supply

该项目旨在确定由于温度和降雨模式的变化、海平面上升和风暴，英国核能部门和西北地区沿海能源供应面临的未来安全挑战。特别是，我们将确定洪水和侵蚀、沿海沉积模式的变化、水温以及沿海地区动植物的分布对未来能源生产和配电网络构成的威胁。这些气候变化的影响除了对沿海发电站的运行产生重要影响外，还影响到邻近的海岸线和沿海水域。因此，需要让社区意识到这些未来的威胁，并参与决定英国未来能源供应的讨论。为了支持这一点，该项目将首先建立一个海岸的计算机模型，该模型可以在25-100公里的范围内运行，并可以预测河口，砾石海滩，沙滩和沙丘以及由硬岩石和软岩石组成的悬崖的海岸变化。这个综合模型的耦合输出将被转换成未来洪水、侵蚀、沉积、水质和栖息地的地图，这些地图是对21世纪20年代、50年代和80年代气候变化预测的结果，以及在更长的时间内，我们对2100年、2200年和2500年的长期沿海变化的最佳理解。然后，这些地图可以使用计算机地理信息系统作为决策支持工具，协助制定沿海管理计划，研究我们面临的不同威胁，以及解决这些威胁对沿海能源供应的整体影响的选择。其目的是确定沿海发电站、变电站和配电网如何适应未来气候变化的影响，从而变得更有弹性，从而在我们迈向低碳未来的过程中确保我们的能源需求。

The project aims to identify the challenges facing the future security of the UK nuclear energy sector and coastal energy supply in the NW region as a result of changing patterns of temperature and rainfall, sea-level rise and storms. In particular, we will determine the threats posed to future energy generation and the distribution network by flooding and erosion, changing patterns of coastal sedimentation, water temperature and the distribution of plants and animals in the coastal zone. As well as having important consequences for the operation of coastal power stations, these climate change impacts also affect the neighbouring coastline as well as the coastal waters. As a result, communities need to be made aware of these future threats, and to be brought into discussions that decide the future of energy supply in the UK. To support this, the project will first build a computer model of the coast that can operate at scales of 25-100 km and that can predict coastal changes for estuaries, gravel beaches, sandy beaches and dunes, and cliffs made up of both hard and soft rock. The coupled outputs from this integrated model will be converted into maps of future flooding, erosion, sedimentation, water quality and habitats that are the result of climate change projections to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s and, over longer periods of time, our best understanding of long-term coastal change to 2100, 2200 and 2500 AD. These maps can then be consulted and overlain using a computer-based geographic information system as a decision-support tool to assist in drawing-up coastal management plans, looking at the different threats that we face and the options to address their overall impact on coastal energy supply. The aim is to identify how the coastal power stations, substations and distribution grid can adapt to future climate change impacts and thus become more resilient, thus securing our energy needs as we move into a low-carbon future.