Reframing Energy Demand: Innovation for Sustainable Heat

作为英国应对气候变化威胁的一部分，英国政府制定了一项激进的计划，到2050年结束所有建筑物的温室气体排放。要实现这一目标，就意味着要面对造成此类排放的两个长期且根深蒂固的因素：许多英国建筑的能效标准较低，以及我们对化石燃料供暖的依赖。尽管我们在英国使用的能源几乎有一半用于供暖，但如何大幅减少需求，以及如何使供应脱碳以满足剩余需求的问题却受到了有限的关注。此外，有证据表明，更激进的能源效率和热能创新形式的发展速度比人们通常认为的要慢。在提高建筑隔热、能源、技术和价格方面，加快变革步伐的最佳途径存在很大的不确定性。成本和收益的分配也存在争议。我们的社会科学研究将解决这些不确定性，并为欧洲节能和可持续供暖的创新提供新的见解。尽管英国并不是唯一面临这些挑战的国家，但英国的能源效率和建筑供暖模式与许多其他欧洲国家有很大不同，这反映了英国廉价而丰富的天然气资源的历史，以及对能源效率和化石燃料对环境的影响的不优先考虑。欧洲其他地区有着不同的历史，并建立了以效率和低碳供应为导向的政策、技术和企业。英国有机会从这些经验中受益。我们将比较英国、丹麦和德国对同时面临的经济和环境挑战的反应，以及城市在每种情况下新兴解决方案中的作用。我们将研究英格兰、苏格兰、德国和丹麦的特定城市，以识别和分析建筑、供暖系统、能源政策和市场结构的能源性能差异。研究结果将用于为英国能源效率和可持续热政策提供可行和有效的方法。我们的研究重点是解释不同社会在能源效率和供暖需求模式上的差异，而不是狭隘的（可能具有误导性的）技术和经济评估。我们特别关注城市环境，因为这是热需求集中的地方，也是许多创新资源所在的地方，但我们也考虑了城市、国家和欧洲尺度的相互作用。我们的研究目标有三个方面：首先，通过借鉴社会科学创新研究的两个相关领域，即技术基础设施的社会研究和支撑能源需求和供应的市场的社会研究，对能源效率和可持续供热的创新进行新的分析，这些研究构成了变化的速度和形态。其次，为选定的英国和欧洲城市的能源效率和可持续供暖的新兴创新提供详细的证据，并分析这些创新对2050年城市能源需求的影响。第三，利用我们的研究来确定欧洲城市之间在能源效率和可持续供热政策和实践方面共享学习的潜力和方法。为此，我们将与英国和欧洲的政策制定者、企业和社区密切合作。这项研究是在与决策者、城市当局和能源从业者以及高级研究人员的互动中设计的。我们将参与整个欧洲的政策和研究网络，并与每个城市案例研究的利益相关者合作。我们将通过演讲传播我们的研究成果给对未来供暖系统感兴趣的英国和国际观众。

As part of the UK's response to the threat of climate change, the UK Government has set out a radical plan to end the emission of greenhouse gases from all buildings by 2050. Achieving this will mean confronting two longstanding and deeply embedded contributors to such emissions: the poor energy efficiency standards of many UK buildings and our dependence on fossil fuels for heating. Despite the fact that almost half of the energy we use in the UK is for heating, the problems of how to make major reductions in demand, and to decarbonise supply to meet remaining needs, have received limited attention. In addition, the evidence is that more radical forms of energy efficiency and heat innovations are happening more slowly than has often been assumed. There are significant uncertainties about the best ways to increase the pace of change in relation to better insulation of buildings, energy sources, technologies and prices. There are also contentious questions about shares of costs and benefits. Our social science research will address these uncertainties and contribute new insights into innovation for energy efficient and sustainable heat in Europe. Although the UK is not alone in confronting these challenges, UK patterns of energy efficiency and heating for buildings are significantly different from many other European countries, reflecting the UK's history of cheap and plentiful natural gas resources, and the low priority given to energy efficiency and the environmental impacts of fossil fuels. Other parts of Europe have different histories, and have established policies, technologies and businesses oriented to efficiency and low carbon supplies. There are opportunities for the UK to benefit from such experience. We will compare UK, Danish and German responses to concurrent economic and environmental challenges, and the role of cities in emerging solutions in each case. We will study particular cities in England, Scotland, Germany and Denmark to identify and analyse differences in energy performance of buildings, heating systems, and energy policy and market structures. Findings will be used to provide insight into feasible and effective ways forward for UK energy efficiency and sustainable heat policy.Rather than narrow (and potentially misleading) technical and economic assessments, our research focuses on explaining the differences between societies in patterns of energy efficiency and demand for heating. We pay particular attention to urban settings, because this is where heat demand is concentrated and where many resources for innovation are located, but we also consider the interaction of city, national and European scales. Our research aims are threefold: First, to develop a new analysis of innovations in energy efficiency and sustainable heat by drawing on two related strands of social science research on innovation: social studies of the technical infrastructures and social studies of the markets which underpin energy demand and supply, and which structure the pace and shape of change.Second, to develop detailed evidence about emerging innovations for energy efficiency and sustainable heat in selected UK and European cities, and to analyse the implications of these innovations for urban energy demand to 2050.Third, to use our research to identify the potential, and means, for shared learning between European cities, in relation to energy efficiency and sustainable heat policy and practice. We will do this by working closely with UK and European policymakers, businesses and communities.The research has been designed in interaction with policy-makers, urban authorities and energy practitioners, as well as senior researchers. We will engage across European policy and research networks, and with stakeholders in each city case study. We will disseminate our research through presentations to a wide variety of UK and international audiences with interest in the future of heating systems.