Roadmaps to Zero Net Emissions in Urban Public Transport

技术和社会变革正在改变公共交通服务的性质。随着人们对空气质量、交通拥堵和能源安全的担忧日益加剧，人们越来越重视发展可持续、可靠的低排放和零排放交通系统。作为回应，在新巴士技术上进行了大量投资——在整个欧盟，目前有1300多辆电动巴士在运营或订购，英国作为欧洲最大的运营商，拥有其中的18%。来自25个欧洲城市的19家公共运营商和当局承诺，在未来3年内，这一车队的增长将达到92%，到2025年，整个欧盟的电动巴士车队的规模可能会比今天的基线增加4.5倍以上。在全球范围内，2017年至2025年，电动公交车的综合年增长率预计为33.5%。该行业的快速增长为英国带来了巨大的商业机会，但也带来了许多挑战，包括收购/运营成本、车辆范围、能源效率、基础设施（民用和能源）的适用性，以应对不断增长的需求，如何考虑由于社会接受而造成的障碍，政策冲突和对未来废物流的有效管理。正是在这种背景下，当前的繁荣合作伙伴关系汇集了包括贝尔法斯特女王大学和赖特巴士在内的多学科团队，以全面了解将下一代零净排放（ZNE）巴士引入公共交通部门所带来的挑战。在快速创新的环境下，对短期和长期技术风险和机会的详细了解是成功开发的关键。拟议的研究旨在确保英国在下一代和未来几代节能巴士技术的发展中保持领先地位。这项研究将集中在四个关键的、高度综合的挑战上：在公共汽车领域，对于最佳的零净排放汽车技术尚未达成共识，在开发动力总成技术方面面临重大挑战，这些技术要最大限度地提高燃油/排放/里程/负载系数效率，同时保持健康监测和自动驾驶的进步。由于行业特有的挑战，公共汽车行业落后于乘用车行业，但将在支撑下一代低碳经济方面发挥关键作用。下一代汽车将需要对能源消耗的变化具有越来越强的弹性，不仅在车辆层面上缓解里程焦虑，因为能源消耗将随着路线的不同而有很大的变化，而且在整个车队中，对生命周期能源需求和废物流的加强理解将有助于未来提高能源效率和安全性。随着公交车变得越来越先进，不仅有机会改进车辆的设计，而且还有机会改进它与基础设施的整合，朝着下一代智慧城市迈进。行车监控和感应充电的基础设施传感器将使我们更好地了解我们的交通系统如何影响我们的基础设施的健康状况，并了解如何通过基于车辆的监控协议来保护我们的公交网络的附加价值。4. 整个行业在新兴政策如何解释技术外因素方面存在不确定性；例如，社会影响、合法性、文化规范和经济机会。有必要将这些社会层面与技术创新结合起来，作为规划和管理过渡途径的一部分。

Technological and societal changes are transforming the nature of public transport services. As concerns over air quality, congestion, and energy security have become elevated, there has been increasing emphasis on the development of sustainable, reliable low- and zero-emissions transport systems. In response there has been significant investment in new bus technologies - across the EU, there are currently over 1,300 electric buses in operation or on order, with the UK holding 18% of these as the largest operator in Europe. There are commitments from 19 public operators and authorities across 25 European cities, which would see a growth in this fleet of up to 92% over the next 3 years, and by 2025 the size of the electric bus fleet across the EU could be increased by more than 4.5 times over the baseline today. At a global level, the Combined Annual Growth Rate for electric buses is currently predicted to be 33.5% between 2017 and 2025. This rapid growth in the sector represents a substantial business opportunity for the UK, but brings to the forefront a multitude of challenges including concerns over cost of acquisition/operation, vehicle range, energy efficiency, suitability of infrastructure (both civil and energy) to respond to the growing demand, how to account for blockages due to social acceptance, policy conflicts and effective management of future waste streams. It is in this context that the current Prosperity Partnership brings together a multi-disciplinary team encompassing Queen's University Belfast and Wrightbus to deliver a comprehensive understanding of the challenges arising from introducing next generation zero net emissions (ZNE) buses into the public transport sector. In a climate of rapid innovation, a detailed understanding of both the short- and long-term technology risks and opportunities is key to successful exploitation. The proposed research aims to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of development in the next, and future, generations of energy efficient bus technologies. The research will focus on four key, highly integrated challenges: 1. There is no consensus on an optimal zero net emissions vehicle technology in the bus sector, with significant challenges in developing powertrain technologies which maximise the fuel/emissions/range/load factor efficiencies while maintaining pace with advancements in health monitoring and autonomy. With sector specific challenges, the bus industry is lagging behind the passenger car sector but will play a critical role in underpinning the next generation low carbon economy.2. Next generation vehicles will need to be increasingly resilient to variations in energy consumption, not only at the vehicle level to mitigate range anxiety, where energy consumption will vary considerably as a function of route driven, but also across fleets, where enhanced understanding of the lifecycle energy requirements and waste streams will contribute to future enhanced energy efficiency and security.3. As buses become increasingly more advanced, there are opportunities to not only improve the design of the vehicle, but also how it integrates with infrastructure, moving towards the next generation of Smart Cities. Drive-by monitoring and inductive charging of infrastructure sensors will enable greater understanding of how our transport systems impact on the state of health of our infrastructure, and to understand how added value from our bus networks can be secured through vehicle-based monitoring protocols. 4. There is uncertainty across the sector in how emerging policy can account for extra-technological dimensions; for example, societal impacts, legitimacy, cultural norms, and economic opportunities. There is a need to integrate these societal dimensions with technological innovation as part of the mapping and governance of transition pathways.