Network headroom, engineering upgrades and public acceptance (NEUPA): Connecting engineering for heat system change to consumers and citizens

该项目将提供英国第一张网络容量和剩余空间的“地图”，并详细考虑英国不同地区的案例研究。它还将利用天气数据评估供热和制冷需求在未来可能发生的变化。在此基础上，该项目将评估供热系统脱碳对当地社区造成的潜在破坏的性质。它将与市民接触，调查他们对供暖系统变化的看法和期望。当地能源分配网络（天然气、电力和热力）为低碳供暖和制冷提供能源的能力方面存在重大信息缺口。竞争的选择包括将天然气网转换为氢气，使用热泵扩大电气化，以及区域供热。一个关键的考虑因素是对本地网络容量的任何限制的性质，特别是提供满足峰值需求所需的能量的能力，在极端寒冷期间可能远远高于平均水平，未来可能在热浪期间。缺乏数据和对可能与热系统变化相关的破坏的理解是对热系统脱碳政策行动的严重障碍。气候变化委员会（Committee on Climate Change）委托进行的一项研究分析了2050年的净零目标，得出的结论是，人们对配电网容量的利用知之甚少。该项目旨在根据网络公司报告的信息，通过对行业参与者的访谈和调查，评估对配电网状况的了解，从而克服这一信息差距。它将比较电力和天然气网络，并考虑区域供热。消费者对系统变化的接受程度和地方层面的中断也是低碳供暖的核心，但人们对这一点同样知之甚少，很少与街道或社区层面的工程细节联系起来。该项目将使用审慎的社会科学研究来探索公民对当地环境变化和破坏的期望，这些变化和破坏可能与为家庭和企业提供低碳供暖（和制冷）服务的竞争替代方案有关。最近关于热脱碳的工作在评估最终用途技术选择（即进入建筑物的内容）和供应能源向量（使用哪种能源）方面表现强劲。然而，它在对基础设施需求和权衡的工程、经济和社会评估方面很薄弱——特别是在为家庭和企业提供能源服务的“最后一英里”或配电网络基础设施方面。该项目明确关注基础设施的“最后一英里”，并将工程评估和约束建模与公众参与提出的供暖解决方案及其相关中断的社会科学见解相结合，以评估供暖系统变化的影响以及人们对它们的看法。

The project will provide the UK's first 'map' of network capacity and headroom and consider case studies in different parts of the UK in detail. It will also assess how heat and cooling demand might change in future using weather data. Based on all this the project will evaluate the nature of potential disruption in local communities created by heat system decarbonisation. It will engage with citizens to investigate their perceptions and expectations of heat system change.There are significant information gaps associated with the capacity of local energy distribution networks (gas, electricity and heat) to deliver energy for low carbon heating and cooling. Competing options include converting the gas grid to hydrogen, expanding electrification using heat pumps, and district heating. A key consideration is the nature of any constraints on the capacity of local networks, in particular the ability to deliver energy needed to meet peak demands, which can be far higher than average during extreme cold spells and perhaps in future during heat waves. Lack of both data and understanding of what disruption might be associated with heat system change are serious impediments to policy action on heat system decarbonisation. Research commissioned by the Committee on Climate Change analysis of a net zero target for 2050 concludes that utilisation of distribution network capacity is poorly understood. The project sets out to overcome this gap in information by evaluating what is known about distribution network condition based upon information reported by network companies and through interviews and surveys involving industry participants. It will compare electricity and gas networks and also consider district heating. Consumer acceptability of system change and local level disruption is also central to low carbon heat, yet it is similarly poorly understood and seldom linked to engineering detail at street or neighbourhood level. The project will use deliberative social science research to explore the expectations of citizens to the changes and disruption to local environments that might be associated with competing alternatives for delivering low carbon heating (and cooling) services to homes and businesses. Recent work on heat decarbonisation is strong with respect to assessment of end use technology options (i.e. what goes into the buildings) and on supply energy vectors (which energy source is utilised). However, it is weak on engineering, economic and social assessment of infrastructure needs and trade-offs - particularly for the 'last mile' or distribution network infrastructures that bring energy services to homes and businesses. This project is explicitly focused on this 'last mile' of infrastructure and combines engineering evaluation and constraint modelling with social science insights from public engagement with proposed heating solutions and their associated disruption(s), to assess the impacts of heat system change and what people think about them.