Network headroom, engineering upgrades and public acceptance (NEUPA): Connecting engineering for heat system change to consumers and citizens

该项目将提供英国第一张网络容量和净空的“地图”，并详细考虑英国不同地区的案例研究。它还将利用天气数据评估未来供暖和制冷需求的变化。在此基础上，该项目将评估热力系统脱碳对当地社区造成的潜在破坏的性质。它将与公民接触，调查他们对供热系统变化的看法和期望，在地方能源分配网络（天然气、电力和热力）提供低碳供暖和制冷能源的能力方面存在重大信息差距。竞争的选择包括将天然气电网转换为氢气，使用热泵扩大电气化和区域供暖。一个关键的考虑因素是对地方电网能力的任何限制的性质，特别是提供满足高峰需求所需的能源的能力，在极端寒冷时期，也许在未来的热浪期间，高峰需求可能远远高于平均水平。缺乏数据和对供热系统变化可能造成的破坏的了解，严重阻碍了供热系统脱碳的政策行动。气候变化委员会委托进行的一项研究对2050年净零目标进行了分析，得出的结论是，人们对配电网络容量的利用情况知之甚少。该项目着手克服这一信息差距，根据网络公司报告的信息，并通过对行业参与者的访谈和调查，评估对配电网络状况的了解。它将比较电力和天然气网络，并考虑区域供暖。消费者对系统变化和地方一级中断的接受程度也是低碳供热的核心，但人们对这一点同样了解甚少，也很少与街道或社区一级的工程细节联系起来。该项目将利用审慎的社会科学研究来探索公民对当地环境变化和破坏的期望，这些变化和破坏可能与为家庭和企业提供低碳供暖（和制冷）服务的竞争性替代方案有关。最近关于热脱碳的工作在评估最终使用技术选项（即进入建筑物的内容）和供应能源矢量（使用哪种能源）方面很强大。然而，它在基础设施需求和权衡的工程、经济和社会评估方面很薄弱，特别是在为家庭和企业提供能源服务的"最后一英里"或配电网络基础设施方面。该项目明确关注基础设施的“最后一英里”，并将工程评估和约束建模与公众参与的社会科学见解结合起来，提出供暖解决方案及其相关中断，以评估供暖系统变化的影响以及人们对它们的看法。

The project will provide the UK's first 'map' of network capacity and headroom and consider case studies in different parts of the UK in detail. It will also assess how heat and cooling demand might change in future using weather data. Based on all this the project will evaluate the nature of potential disruption in local communities created by heat system decarbonisation. It will engage with citizens to investigate their perceptions and expectations of heat system change.There are significant information gaps associated with the capacity of local energy distribution networks (gas, electricity and heat) to deliver energy for low carbon heating and cooling. Competing options include converting the gas grid to hydrogen, expanding electrification using heat pumps, and district heating. A key consideration is the nature of any constraints on the capacity of local networks, in particular the ability to deliver energy needed to meet peak demands, which can be far higher than average during extreme cold spells and perhaps in future during heat waves. Lack of both data and understanding of what disruption might be associated with heat system change are serious impediments to policy action on heat system decarbonisation. Research commissioned by the Committee on Climate Change analysis of a net zero target for 2050 concludes that utilisation of distribution network capacity is poorly understood. The project sets out to overcome this gap in information by evaluating what is known about distribution network condition based upon information reported by network companies and through interviews and surveys involving industry participants. It will compare electricity and gas networks and also consider district heating. Consumer acceptability of system change and local level disruption is also central to low carbon heat, yet it is similarly poorly understood and seldom linked to engineering detail at street or neighbourhood level. The project will use deliberative social science research to explore the expectations of citizens to the changes and disruption to local environments that might be associated with competing alternatives for delivering low carbon heating (and cooling) services to homes and businesses. Recent work on heat decarbonisation is strong with respect to assessment of end use technology options (i.e. what goes into the buildings) and on supply energy vectors (which energy source is utilised). However, it is weak on engineering, economic and social assessment of infrastructure needs and trade-offs - particularly for the 'last mile' or distribution network infrastructures that bring energy services to homes and businesses. This project is explicitly focused on this 'last mile' of infrastructure and combines engineering evaluation and constraint modelling with social science insights from public engagement with proposed heating solutions and their associated disruption(s), to assess the impacts of heat system change and what people think about them.