DMS-EPSRC Sharp Large Deviation Estimates of Fluctuations in Stochastic Hydrodynamic Systems

随机流体动力系统波动的 DMS-EPSRC 急剧大偏差估计

• 批准号: EP/V013319/1
• 负责人: Tobias Grafke
• 金额: $ 15.47万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FV013319%2F1
• 关键词: DMS; EPSRC; Sharp; Large; Deviation

Extreme events can be highly impactful. They are typically rare, which is fortunate if their consequences are negative on society, but also makes them difficult to predict. The scope of this project is to develop computational tools that can be applied to gain understanding of how extreme events occur in complex stochastic systems. Examples are models for the forecasting of extreme weather-related events like tropical storms and flooding as well as the spread of pollutants in case of ocean oil spills. Our tools will enable researchers to ask questions beyond of what is currently possible. This will lead to transformative improvement of current predictive models, which is essential for efficient management of natural and man made disasters. Further applications include the characterization of extreme events in stochastic models that behave similar to fluids, for example in the context of epidemics, traffic, and star formation.

极端事件可能具有很大的影响力。它们通常是罕见的，如果它们对社会的影响是负面的，这是幸运的，但也使它们难以预测。该项目的范围是开发计算工具，可用于了解极端事件如何发生在复杂的随机系统。这方面的例子包括热带风暴和洪水等与极端天气有关的事件的预测模型，以及海洋石油泄漏情况下污染物扩散的预测模型。我们的工具将使研究人员能够提出超越目前可能的问题。这将导致当前预测模型的变革性改进，这对于有效管理自然和人为灾害至关重要。进一步的应用包括在行为类似于流体的随机模型中的极端事件的表征，例如在流行病，交通和星星形成的背景下。

项目成果

Dynamical landscape of transitional pipe flow.

过渡管流的动态景观。

• DOI: 10.1103/physreve.105.045108
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Physical review. E
• 作者: Frishman A

Dynamical landscape of transitional pipe flow

过渡管流动态景观

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2111.00233
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Frishman A

Supplemental material from Mechanism for turbulence proliferation in subcritical flows

亚临界流中湍流扩散机制的补充材料

• DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.21201265
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Frishman A

Extreme events and instantons in Lagrangian passive scalar turbulence models.

• DOI: 10.1103/physreve.106.015101
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Physical review. E
• 作者: Mnerh Alqahtani;L. Grigorio;T. Grafke

Approximate Optimal Controls via Instanton Expansion for Low Temperature Free Energy Computation

通过瞬子展开进行近似最优控制用于低温自由能计算

• DOI: 10.1137/20m1385809
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Multiscale Modeling & Simulation
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Ferré G