Flexible design and operation of water resource systems to tackle the triple challenge of climate change, the energy transition, and population growth

可靠的供水和成功的能源转型是可持续未来的两个必要条件。然而，我们对能源供应转向间歇性可再生能源（风能、太阳能）将如何影响我们的水利基础设施的运作知之甚少。现在就应该为此做好规划：面对能源供应波动的准备不足会产生广泛的经济影响，正如不断发展的能源危机（截至2022年1月）所证明的那样。这项新研究者奖提案的双重目标是开发一个快速的水能模拟器，以量化脱碳的全国电网对水资源系统的影响，并展示其融入最先进的战略水资源规划。该模拟器将是第一个能够探索水资源系统和低碳能源系统的联合动态的模拟器，其时间范围从每小时到多年不等。该项目还将促进对灵活性的更好理解，将其作为适应脱碳电网以及缓冲干旱的机会。为了实现其目标，该项目将解决以下挑战：（C1）我们如何表示依赖天气的输入（风、太阳辐射、降雨）的可变性及其在耦合的水-能源系统中的后果？天气以精细的时间尺度演变（例如，每小时）和低降水量可能会威胁到几年的供水。代表这些时间尺度如何相互作用，同时包括国家电网，这是一个学术研究尚未解决的挑战。为了解决这个问题，该项目将实施一个快速的每小时水-能源系统模拟器，包括国家电网，以评估能源转型对水系统的影响，并衡量利用水系统固有的灵活性来管理能源需求的一阶效益。(C2)我们如何在气候变化、人口增长和能源转型造成的各种不确定性中确定与决策相关的情景？该项目将使用耦合模拟器来探索潜在的气候-能源-人口未来并解决这一问题，首次将能源转型情景纳入水资源规划。(C3)我们如何将向低碳电网的过渡纳入战略水资源规划？该项目将实现这一目标，首先是在单一的水能源基础设施上（例如，该项目将帮助水务部门（公司和监管机构）规划应对气候变化、人口增长和能源转型这三重挑战，并以可承受的价格为水用户提供可靠的供水。

A reliable water supply and a successful energy transition are two necessary conditions for a sustainable future. Yet we know little about how the switch to intermittent renewables (wind, solar) for our energy supply will affect the operation of our water infrastructure. The time for planning for this is now: unpreparedness in the face of energy supply fluctuations has wide-ranging economic impacts, as demonstrated by the developing energy crisis (as of January 2022). The dual aim of this New Investigator Award proposal is to develop a fast water-energy simulator to quantify the impacts of a decarbonised nationwide power grid on water resource systems, and to demonstrate its integration into state-of-the-art strategic water resource planning. This simulator will be the first to enable the exploration of the joint dynamics of water resource systems and low carbon energy systems at timescales ranging from hourly to multi-annual. This project will also promote an improved understanding of flexibility as an opportunity to adapt to a decarbonised grid as well as to buffer against drought.To achieve its aims, the project will address the following challenges:(C1) How can we represent the variability of weather-dependent inputs (wind, solar irradiation, rainfall) and their consequences in coupled water-energy systems? Weather evolves at fine timescales (e.g., hourly) and low precipitations can threaten water supply over a few years. Representing how these timescales interact, while including the national power grid, is a challenge that has yet to be tackle by academic research. To tackle this, the project will implement a fast hourly water-energy system simulator including the national electricity grid, both to assess energy transition impacts on water systems and measure first-order benefits of using the built-in flexibility of water systems to manage energy demand.(C2) How can we identify decision-relevant scenarios across the full range of uncertainty created by climate change, population growth and the energy transition? This project will use the coupled simulator to explore potential climate-energy-population futures and address this question, for the first time integrating energy transition scenarios into water planning.(C3) How can we integrate the transition to a low-carbon grid into strategic water resource planning? This project will achieve that, first on a single piece of water-energy infrastructure (e.g., desalination plant connected both to local renewable energy and to the grid), then at the scale of a regional water system supplying several million users in the East of England.This project will help the water sector (companies and regulators) plan for the triple challenge of climate change, population growth, and the energy transition, and deliver a reliable water supply at affordable rates for water users.