Mechanistic niche predictive modelling of plant invasion at the range front

入侵物种是对全球生物多样性的主要威胁之一。控制或根除入侵物种代价高昂，在某些情况下甚至是不可能的。因此，减轻影响和防止扩张是应对这些问题的最有效战略。针对入侵物种的缓解战略需要了解它们的扩张潜力，特别是在不断变化的环境下。然而，生物入侵的时空复杂性阻碍了入侵预测。物种分布模型(SDM)目前是将物种发生观察与环境估计相结合，对物种的环境适宜性进行空间显式预测的主要工具。然而，相关的物种分布模型具有很强的局限性，特别是在预测动态分布过程(如在入侵物种中发现的过程)和变化的环境条件下。FrontStress通过解决SDMS的主要局限性，提出了一个新的框架，用于模拟入侵植物物种的分布和扩展潜力。首先，针对31种最具侵袭性的入侵植物，考虑中心个体和外围个体，建立相关的SDMS，挖掘其扩展潜力。其次，我将从三个选定的欧洲入侵植物物种中收集涵盖其欧洲分布的八个种群在功能性状、生命率和基本生态位方面的种内变异数据。最后，我将使用参数化的力学模型来模拟它们在未来气候下的分布。这将使我能够描述范围-边缘动态，考虑到物种的逆境耐受性，还可以理解物种适应和扩展的基本方面。FrontStress将首次建立机械生态位模型，克服相关SDMS的主要限制，因为它们考虑了与环境条件及其地理变异性有关的过程显性动态。

Invasive species constitute one of the main threats to global biodiversity. Controlling or eradicating invasive species is strongly costly and, in some cases, impossible. As such, impact mitigation and expansion prevention are the most effective strategy against them. Mitigation strategies against invasive species require knowledge of their potential for expansion, especially under changing environments. However, the spatiotemporal complexity of biological invasions hinders invasion forecasts. Species distribution models (SDM) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species combining observations of species occurrences with environmental estimates. Yet, correlative species distribution models have strong limitations, especially regarding predicting dynamic distribution processes (such as those found in invasive species) and under changing environmental conditions. FrontStress proposes a new framework for the modelling of invasive plant species distribution and expansion potential by tackling the main limitations of SDMs. Firstly, I will build correlative SDMs for the 31 most aggressive invasive plants considering central and peripheric individuals to explore expansion potential. Secondly, from three selected European invasive plant species I will collect data of intraspecific variability in functional traits, vital rates and fundamental niche from eight populations covering their European distribution. Finally, I will use the parametrized mechanistic models to simulate their distribution under future climates. This will allow me to describe range-edge dynamics considering the species stress tolerance but also to understand basic aspects of species adaptation and expansion. FrontStress will build for the first-time mechanistic niche models that overcome correlative SDMs main limitations, as they consider process-explicit dynamics in relation to the environmental conditions and its geographic variability.