The Political Economy of Water in the MENA Region: a Cross-Regional Assessment

这项拟议的研究将评估中东和北非国家在从现在到本世纪中叶期间努力实现水安全所面临的挑战。它将确定可能受到最严重影响的国家和人口群体。它将研究可能影响该区域水安全的所有各种因素，包括政府的效力(或其他)、气候变化、人口增长、污染和不可持续的地下水消耗。将特别关注马格里布地区(北非不包括埃及)的国家，因为英国和美国的研究人员没有像影响中东的国家那样彻底地研究这些国家的水问题。这项研究将考察中东和北非各国政府在应对它们面临的挑战方面有多好的装备，以努力确保它们的国家有足够的可接受质量的水供应。它将评估中东和北非国家之间建设性合作的前景，以及在这些前景似乎黯淡的情况下，特定国家之间在水资源问题上加剧紧张甚至发生冲突的可能性。最后，它将建议英国可能采取切实行动，帮助这些国家更好地应对这些挑战。任何此类建议都将避免乌托邦式的解决方案，而这些解决方案很可能被证明是在浪费英国纳税人的钱。

The proposed research will assess the challenges facing MENA countries as they attempt to achieve water security, over the period between now and the middle of this century. It will identify the countries and demographic groups likely to be most severely affected. It will look at all the various factors which could affect water security in the region, including the effectiveness (or otherwise) of governments, climate change, population growth, pollution and the unsustainable consumption of ground-water. Particular attention would be paid to the countries of the Maghreb (North Africa minus Egypt), as British and US researchers have not examined water issues in these countries as thoroughly as they have those affecting the Middle East. The research will examine how well-equipped individual MENA governments are to deal with the challenges they face in trying to ensure that their countries have adequate supplies of water of acceptable quality. It will assess the prospects for constructive cooperation among MENA states and, where those prospects seem poor, the likelihood of increased tension or even conflict between particular states over water.Finally, it will suggest what the UK might realistically do to help these countries better address these challenges. Any such recommendations will avoid utopian solutions that would be likely to prove to be a waste of UK taxpayers' money.