A Behavioural Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investment Decisions in Uganda

乌干达农业投资决策的行为经济学分析

• 批准号: ES/J008893/1
• 负责人: Arjan Verschoor
• 金额: $ 44.4万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FJ008893%2F1
• 关键词: Behavioural; Economic; Analysis; Agricultural; Investment

Farmers in developing countries operate in extraordinarily hazardous environments. Policies that aim to increase agricultural productivity in such environments - policies on agricultural lending, research and extension, rural infrastructure, crop insurance, and so forth - need to take into account how farmers take agricultural investment decisions. However, crucial elements of their decision-making habits that relate to risky choices remain ill-understood. Here we propose to use behavioural economic research methods to advance our understanding in a number of important ways.The research we propose here is new, and has potentially far-reaching implications for understanding the behavioural constraints on inclusive agricultural growth in hazardous environments, and thus for an effective policy response. In order to demonstrate this potential we have selected a case study country, Uganda, where (a) such growth due to remarkable farmer investment behaviour has been achieved, and (b) despite this, unrealised potential for productivity growth still characterises most of the agricultural sector, related to low adoption rates of new technologies, 'thin' and isolated rural markets, the failure of farmer cooperatives, among many other factors.In order to elucidate the motivation of farmers' investment behaviour, we will use economic experiments, in which participants respond to real monetary incentives. The use of economic experiments is increasing in development economics; both applicants are well-versed in their use in a development context, as are the institutions at which they are based (the School of International Development and the Centre for the Behavioural and Experimental Social Sciences (CBESS) at the University of East Anglia). The experiments proposed here contain a number of novel design features, which will be piloted in order to ensure that participants understand the instructions.In the experiments, participants are asked to make choices from among lotteries; the ones they choose are implemented with the use of a random device (e.g. a bag with coloured balls), after which earnings are calculated and paid out. Probabilities and possible outcomes of the lotteries are systematically varied, in order to measure whether certain risks tend to be exaggerated (or alternatively, downplayed) in participants' minds. Several variants will be implemented. First, in contrast to the standard approach where money can only be earned (not lost), we would hand over money for use in the experiments several weeks before (possibly in a bank account that subjects cannot access before game day), so that we observe risky choice behaviour that relates to losses of money that subjects have come to regard as their own. Second, in order to test whether a probability threshold exists below which risks are ignored, we would offer subjects control over the amount of risk they take through allowing them (at a price) to manipulate the probabilities of outcomes. Third, to study the influence of social interaction on risky choice behaviour, random pairs of participants are formed whose earnings are pooled and participants are asked to determine how the total earnings should be redistributed.We will also investigate whether farmers are biased when they consider making an investment. To do so, we have in mind to use existing data for the research area about the distribution of yields given soil type, agricultural inputs, and so forth, which can be converted into easily understood probabilistic statements ("yield will exceed X per acre, Y out of Z times"). We would describe to respondents a number of scenarios, and invite them to come up with such a statement, knowing that their reward will be greater, the more accurate the statement is. This allows us to detect any bias in decision-making that can then be related to the data on actual investment behaviour obtained in a socio-economic survey that we conduct after the experiments.

发展中国家的农民在极其危险的环境中工作。在这种环境下旨在提高农业生产力的政策-农业贷款、研究和推广、农村基础设施、作物保险等政策-需要考虑到农民如何作出农业投资决定。然而，他们决策习惯中与风险选择有关的关键因素仍然不为人所知。在这里，我们建议使用行为经济学研究方法，以推进我们的理解在一些重要的方式，我们建议在这里的研究是新的，并有潜在的深远影响，了解行为的限制，包容性农业增长在危险的环境，从而为有效的政策反应。为了证明这一潜力，我们选择了一个案例研究国家乌干达，在那里，（a）由于农民的投资行为显著，实现了这种增长，（B）尽管如此，未实现的生产力增长潜力仍然是大多数农业部门的特点，与新技术采用率低、农村市场“薄弱”和孤立、农民合作社失败有关，为了阐明农民投资行为的动机，我们将使用经济实验，其中参与者对真实的货币激励做出反应。在发展经济学中，经济实验的使用越来越多;两名申请人都精通在发展背景下使用经济实验，他们所在的机构也是如此（国际发展学院和东安格利亚大学行为和实验社会科学中心）。这里提出的实验包含了一些新的设计特点，将进行试点，以确保参与者理解的指示。在实验中，参与者被要求从彩票中做出选择;他们选择的是使用随机设备（例如一个装有彩色球的袋子），然后计算和支付收入。彩票的概率和可能的结果是系统地变化的，以衡量某些风险是否倾向于在参与者的头脑中被夸大（或被低估）。将实施几种变体。首先，与标准的只能赚钱（不能赔钱）的方法相反，我们会在几周前把钱交给实验使用（可能是在一个受试者在比赛日之前无法访问的银行账户中），这样我们就可以观察到与受试者认为是自己的钱的损失有关的风险选择行为。第二，为了检验是否存在一个概率阈值，低于这个阈值的风险就会被忽略，我们将通过允许受试者（以一定的价格）操纵结果的概率，来控制他们所承担的风险。第三，为了研究社会互动对风险选择行为的影响，我们随机组成了一对参与者，他们的收入被集中在一起，参与者被要求确定总收入应该如何重新分配，我们还将调查农民在考虑投资时是否有偏见。为此，我们考虑使用研究区域现有的关于给定土壤类型、农业投入等的产量分布的数据，这些数据可以转换为易于理解的概率陈述（“每英亩产量将超过X，Z次中的Y”）。我们会向受访者描述一些场景，并邀请他们提出这样的陈述，知道他们的回报会更大，陈述越准确。这使我们能够检测决策中的任何偏差，然后将其与我们在实验后进行的社会经济调查中获得的实际投资行为数据联系起来。

项目成果

An endowment effect for risk levels: Evidence from a Ugandan lab

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.12.013
• 发表时间: 2021-01-12
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Clist, Paul;D'Exelle, Ben;Verschoor, Arjan
• 通讯作者: Verschoor, Arjan

Probability weighting for losses and for gains among smallholder farmers in Uganda

乌干达小农损失和收益的概率加权

• DOI: 10.1007/s11238-020-09796-8
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Theory and Decision
• 影响因子: 0.8
• 作者: Verschoor A

Lab and life: Does risky choice behaviour observed in experiments reflect that in the real world?

实验室与生活：实验中观察到的风险选择行为是否反映了现实世界中的情况？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2016.05.009
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Verschoor A

Conflicting risk attitudes

相互冲突的风险态度

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.03.003
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Lahno A

Village networks and entrepreneurial farming in Uganda

• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106241
• 发表时间: 2023-03-21
• 期刊: WORLD DEVELOPMENT
• 影响因子: 6.9
• 作者: D'Exelle，Ben;Verschoor，Arjan
• 通讯作者: Verschoor，Arjan