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A dynamic multiregional overlapping generations computable general equilibrium model for the study of population ageing in the UK

用于研究英国人口老龄化的动态多区域重叠世代可计算一般均衡模型

基本信息

批准号：
ES/K001280/1
负责人：
Katerina Lisenkova
金额：
$ 21.18万
依托单位：
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FK001280%2F1
关键词：
dynamic multiregional overlapping generations computable

项目摘要

Population ageing is an important challenge facing most countries in the world. The scale of the demographic change, which started in the 20th century and will continue throughout the 21st century, is dramatic. Over the past 50 years the proportion of the UK population aged 65 and above has increased from 12 to 17 per cent, and by 2060 it will reach 26 per cent . The main features of demographic change are its slow pace, long duration and inertia. This makes the process fairly easy to project, but almost impossible to reverse. We need to improve our understanding of what impact this process will have. It will have important implications for public policy in many areas, from education and social security, to fiscal policy and employment regulation. To be able to make informed policy decisions, the government requires access to high quality research on the potential impacts of the projected demographic change. It also needs tools that can be used to evaluate the effect of these population shocks and identify the optimal policy responses. I propose to build a dynamic multiregional Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model for the UK and its constituent countries, and apply it to examine the economic effects of population ageing. An OLG-CGE model attempts to provide a comprehensive description of an economy using a system of equations. The feature that differentiates it from other types of models is that it is age-disaggregated, which allows the modelling of age-specific preferences and behaviour, such as labour supply, productivity, consumption structure, saving behaviour, and retirement decisions. The rich demographic structure of an OLG-CGE model allows for the direct evaluation of the aggregate effects of various scenarios as well as their impacts on different generations. The multiregional dimension is important because of the regional variations both in the characteristics of demographic change and in policy. There are important regional differences in population growth rates, the speed of population ageing, and international and internal migration flows. Moreover, there are already differences in the policies of the UK regions concerning education, health, and care for the elderly, and these are likely to diverge more in the future. The implications of policy heterogeneity across regions is likely to generate complex and unanticipated interactions between regional economies.This project is relevant for all three EERC strategic priorities. It will enhance the understanding of how demographic change affects economic performance and what implications this has for sustainable growth. The model can be used to evaluate and inform policy interventions to counteract negative effects of population ageing. It will also provide an ideal tool to study intergenerational fairness. The project is interdisciplinary - a mix of demography and economics - and requires expertise in economic modelling as well as understanding of demographic processes. OLG-CGE is a state of the art technique for understanding issues raised by population change and is used in many countries. There are research teams that are working with large-scale OLG-CGE models in the US, Canada, Germany and France. The World Bank, OECD and US government use this type of model for policy simulations. So far the UK does not have capacity in large scale OLG-CGE modelling and does not participate in the development and utilization of this simulation method. The aim of this project is to include the UK in the international network of OLG-CGE modellers, and to build capacity in the UK to tackle the economic policy issues related to population aging. This project will focus on the issues of demographic change and population ageing. However, the proposed model structure is very versatile. Areas for potential future applications of the model include, but are not limited to, fiscal, education, social security, migration and energy policy.

人口老龄化是世界上大多数国家面临的重大挑战。人口变化的规模从20世纪开始，并将持续整个世纪，是巨大的。在过去的50年里，英国65岁及以上人口的比例从12%上升到17%，到2060年将达到26%。人口变化的主要特点是速度缓慢、持续时间长和惯性。这使得这个过程相当容易预测，但几乎不可能逆转。我们需要更好地理解这一进程将产生什么影响。它将对从教育和社会保障到财政政策和就业监管等许多领域的公共政策产生重要影响。为了能够做出明智的政策决定，政府需要获得关于预计人口变化的潜在影响的高质量研究。它还需要能够用来评估这些人口冲击的影响和确定最佳对策的工具。我建议建立一个动态的多区域重叠世代可计算一般均衡（OLG-CGE）模型为英国及其组成国家，并应用它来研究人口老龄化的经济影响。OLG-CGE模型试图用一个方程组来全面描述一个经济体。它与其他类型模型的不同之处在于，它是按年龄分列的，这使得能够模拟特定年龄的偏好和行为，如劳动力供应、生产力、消费结构、储蓄行为和退休决定。OLG-CGE模型丰富的人口结构允许直接评估各种情景的总体效应及其对不同世代的影响。多区域层面很重要，因为各区域在人口变化特点和政策方面都有差异。各区域在人口增长率、人口老化速度以及国际和国内移徙流动方面存在重大差异。此外，英国各地区在教育、卫生和老年人护理方面的政策已经存在差异，未来可能会出现更大的差异。跨区域政策异质性的影响可能会在区域经济体之间产生复杂和不可预见的相互作用。它将增进对人口变化如何影响经济业绩以及这对可持续增长有何影响的了解。该模型可用于评估和通报政策干预措施，以抵消人口老龄化的负面影响。它也将为研究代际公平提供一个理想的工具。该项目是跨学科的-人口学和经济学的混合-需要经济建模方面的专门知识以及对人口过程的理解。OLG-CGE是一种了解人口变化引起的问题的最新技术，在许多国家得到使用。在美国、加拿大、德国和法国，有研究团队正在使用大规模的OLG-CGE模型。世界银行、经合组织和美国政府使用此类模型进行政策模拟。到目前为止，联合王国还没有能力进行大规模的OLG-CGE建模，也没有参与这种模拟方法的开发和利用。该项目的目的是将英国纳入OLG-CGE建模者的国际网络，并在英国建立能力，以解决与人口老龄化有关的经济政策问题。该项目将侧重于人口变化和人口老龄化问题。然而，所提出的模型结构是非常通用的。该模型未来可能应用的领域包括但不限于财政、教育、社会保障、移民和能源政策。