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SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT: A CRUCIAL POINT FOR THE COUNTRY: A CRUCIAL TEST CASE FOR COMPARATIVE POLITICS

支持埃及民主：该国的关键点：比较政治的关键测试案例

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L008092/1
负责人：
Stephen Whitefield
金额：
$ 15.49万
依托单位：
University of Oxford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL008092%2F1
关键词：
SUPPORT DEMOCRACY EGYPT CRUCIAL POINT

项目摘要

The current political dynamics in Egypt are of huge importance to the stability of the country and the Middle East as a whole. Egypt is not just the most populous and culturally the most influential Arab country, whose success as a democracy (and its mode of transition or failure) would have powerful diffusion effects across the region. It is also a cornerstone for stability in the region, having been the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The removal of President Morsi by the Egyptian Army following mass public protests against his rule raises profound questions about the democratic commitments of Egyptian citizens, the future of democracy in Egypt, and the future of 'electoral Islamism', both in Egypt and beyond. There is an urgent need to collect data on Egyptian public opinion at this crucial point in the country's political transition in order to address these questions. Immediately following the parliamentary elections of 2011, a privately funded survey of citizens conducted by the applicants produced three results of great relevance to the present political situation. First, Egyptian public opinion appeared overwhelmingly supportive of democracy as the best way of running the country. Second, differences between supporters of different parties were minimal. A third feature of public opinion at that time, however, illustrated clearly the nature of the country's current democratic cross-roads. Overall, we found very strong levels of support for a 'guardian army', including among a majority of Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Clearly - and this is the nub of the set of issues we propose to investigate - Egyptian public opinion and party representation cannot now hold on the lines of 2011. But, we ask, in what directions are they breaking? From one angle, this may be the moment at which many Egyptians give up a belief in the very democratic principles they called for during the 2011 revolution (that power is transferred through elections, that the military keeps out of politics, that respect for human rights is universal even for those whom some might see as Islamist extremists). From a different angle, the several millions who took to the streets to call for Morsi to resign seemed to be applying, in effect, support for democracy in a format not restricted by the formalities of calling for elections, running a campaign, casting votes and announcing results. The answers are crucial to the democratic future and governability of the country and for the future of 'electoral Islamism'. Consequently, we will conduct two further mass surveys of the Egyptian public - one to be conducted immediately funding and is assured and fieldwork possible, a second to be conducted when elections take place - to investigate how attitudes have changed since the period when Islamists won legislative and presidential elections. Given the broad political and economic importance of the knowledge that our project will produce for a range of user communities - governments, businesses, NGOs, and opinion leaders in the UK and internationally - we will engage in the widest possible dissemination and outreach activities and produce a unique and publicly accessible data set that may be the basis and anchor for further survey research in Egypt.

埃及目前的政治动态对该国和整个中东的稳定至关重要。埃及不仅是人口最多、文化最具影响力的阿拉伯国家，它作为一个民主国家的成功（及其转型或失败的模式）将在整个地区产生强大的扩散效应。它也是该地区稳定的基石，是第一个与以色列签署和平条约的阿拉伯国家。埃及军队在大规模公众抗议穆尔西统治后将其驱逐出境，这引发了对埃及公民的民主承诺，埃及民主的未来以及埃及内外“选举伊斯兰主义”的未来的深刻质疑。在埃及政治过渡的这一关键时刻，迫切需要收集关于埃及公众舆论的数据，以解决这些问题。在2011年议会选举之后，申请人立即对公民进行了一次私人资助的调查，得出了与当前政治局势非常相关的三个结果。首先，埃及公众舆论似乎压倒性地支持民主，认为这是管理国家的最佳方式。第二，不同政党的支持者之间的分歧很小。然而，当时公众舆论的第三个特点清楚地表明了该国目前民主十字路口的性质。总体而言，我们发现对“监护军队”的支持非常强烈，包括大多数穆斯林兄弟会支持者。显然--这是我们提议调查的一系列问题的核心--埃及的公众舆论和政党代表现在不能再坚持2011年的路线了。但是，我们要问，它们在哪些方向上断裂？从一个角度来看，这可能是许多埃及人放弃他们在2011年革命中呼吁的民主原则的时刻（权力通过选举转移，军方远离政治，尊重人权是普遍的，即使对于那些可能被视为伊斯兰极端分子的人）。从另一个角度来看，数百万走上街头要求穆尔西辞职的人似乎实际上是在以一种不受要求选举、竞选、投票和宣布结果等形式限制的方式支持民主。这些问题的答案对该国的民主未来和治理能力以及“选举伊斯兰主义”的未来至关重要。因此，我们将对埃及公众进行两次进一步的大规模调查-一次将立即进行资金，并有保证和实地调查，第二次将在选举时进行-调查自伊斯兰主义者赢得立法和总统选举以来态度发生了什么变化。考虑到我们的项目将为一系列用户社区-政府，企业，非政府组织和英国和国际上的意见领袖-提供的知识的广泛政治和经济重要性，我们将参与尽可能广泛的传播和推广活动，并制作一个独特的和公开访问的数据集，这可能是埃及进一步调查研究的基础和锚。