SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT: A CRUCIAL POINT FOR THE COUNTRY: A CRUCIAL TEST CASE FOR COMPARATIVE POLITICS

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The current political dynamics in Egypt are of huge importance to the stability of the country and the Middle East as a whole. Egypt is not just the most populous and culturally the most influential Arab country, whose success as a democracy (and its mode of transition or failure) would have powerful diffusion effects across the region. It is also a cornerstone for stability in the region, having been the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The removal of President Morsi by the Egyptian Army following mass public protests against his rule raises profound questions about the democratic commitments of Egyptian citizens, the future of democracy in Egypt, and the future of 'electoral Islamism', both in Egypt and beyond. There is an urgent need to collect data on Egyptian public opinion at this crucial point in the country's political transition in order to address these questions. Immediately following the parliamentary elections of 2011, a privately funded survey of citizens conducted by the applicants produced three results of great relevance to the present political situation. First, Egyptian public opinion appeared overwhelmingly supportive of democracy as the best way of running the country. Second, differences between supporters of different parties were minimal. A third feature of public opinion at that time, however, illustrated clearly the nature of the country's current democratic cross-roads. Overall, we found very strong levels of support for a 'guardian army', including among a majority of Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Clearly - and this is the nub of the set of issues we propose to investigate - Egyptian public opinion and party representation cannot now hold on the lines of 2011. But, we ask, in what directions are they breaking? From one angle, this may be the moment at which many Egyptians give up a belief in the very democratic principles they called for during the 2011 revolution (that power is transferred through elections, that the military keeps out of politics, that respect for human rights is universal even for those whom some might see as Islamist extremists). From a different angle, the several millions who took to the streets to call for Morsi to resign seemed to be applying, in effect, support for democracy in a format not restricted by the formalities of calling for elections, running a campaign, casting votes and announcing results. The answers are crucial to the democratic future and governability of the country and for the future of 'electoral Islamism'. Consequently, we will conduct two further mass surveys of the Egyptian public - one to be conducted immediately funding and is assured and fieldwork possible, a second to be conducted when elections take place - to investigate how attitudes have changed since the period when Islamists won legislative and presidential elections. Given the broad political and economic importance of the knowledge that our project will produce for a range of user communities - governments, businesses, NGOs, and opinion leaders in the UK and internationally - we will engage in the widest possible dissemination and outreach activities and produce a unique and publicly accessible data set that may be the basis and anchor for further survey research in Egypt.