Migration, Urbanisation and Socio-Economic Change, England and Wales 1851-1911

长期以来，移民一直被认为是经济、社会和人口变化的重要驱动因素。它既是对工资率的回应，也是工资率的决定因素，它充当疾病的媒介，塑造我们的地方感。然而，由于缺乏数据，对19世纪英格兰和威尔士的国内移民进行全面分析是不可能的。最近发布的综合人口普查微观数据(I-CEM)数据库--包含大约1.6亿份个人水平的报表--意味着，1851-1911年英格兰和威尔士人口普查中报告的所有人口的给定出生地可用于绘制数百万人的终身移徙路线图。通过分析移民、工资、交通网络和社会经济背景之间不断变化的关系，可以了解移民的决定因素及其对移民60年来进出社区的影响。1851-1911年也是移民从根本上改变了英国人口状况的时期。1851年是英格兰和威尔士一半以上的人口被记录为城市人口(50.4%)的第一年，仅仅60年后，这一比例上升到78.9%，几乎是城市人口的三倍，从1060万人增加到2820万人。因此，这项研究将为推动个人迁移选择的机制提供更深层次的见解，这些机制以快速城市化的形式表现出来。它将解决这样的问题：如果农民工对工资差异做出反应，为什么在农业工资高的时候，农村向城市的迁移达到顶峰？不断增长的铁路网对移民流动有什么影响？移民是否倾向于在明确界定的边界内发生？关于个人的归属感，这能告诉我们什么？这项研究将分两条线进行，第一条线将考虑个人移民的动机和工资差异--这一点摘自美国贸易委员会的工资调查--第二条线将分析移民的流动能力。除了分析直线距离在时间和空间上对移民流动的影响外，还将分析1831年和1911年存在的交通网络，这要归功于我与我的导师Leigh Shaw-Taylor博士及其项目《英格兰和威尔士的交通、城市化和经济发展c.1670-1911》的合作。在限制个人迁移能力的因素的背景下分析个人迁移的动机，可以提出全新的问题。如果考虑到工资差异，时间是否比距离更重要地决定了移民的目的地？随着网络的发展，这种情况是否发生了变化？为了解释移民对目的地的有限选择，我与麻省理工学院的同事开发了一个算法，作为我博士学位的一部分，该算法将用于识别迁移区--其中迁移量最大、迁移量最小的区域。这些地区如何影响个人对目的地的选择？通过在竞争性替代方案的背景下分析移民对离开出生地的风险和回报的评估之间的关系，可以更好地理解导致城市化和农村人口减少的机制，并将其作为进一步分析过去和现在城市化的基准。成果将通过将丰富的来源存放在英国数据档案馆、期刊文章、专著、学术演讲、潜在用户研讨会和一个小型会议、宣传该项目并鼓励新的分析来实现。在学术界之外，将为学校、家庭/业余历史学家和公众开发在线资源。这些在线工具将促进移徙研究，满足国家对关键阶段2-4的地方历史和地理项目的课程要求。

Migration has long been recognised as an important driver of economic, social and demographic change. It is both a response to, and a determinant of wage rates, it acts as a vector of disease and it shapes our sense of place. Yet a paucity of data has meant that a comprehensive analysis of internal migration in nineteenth-century England and Wales has not been possible. The recent release of the Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) database - containing approximately 160 million individual-level returns - means that the given place of birth of the entire population as reported in the 1851-1911 censuses of England and Wales can be used to map millions of lifetime migration paths. By analysing the changing relationship between migration, wages, the transport network and the socio-economic context, it will be possible to understand both the determinants of migration and the effect it had on the communities migrants exited and entered over a sixty year period.The period 1851-1911 was also one in which migration fundamentally changed the profile of the British population. 1851 was the first year in which more than half the population of England and Wales were recorded as urban (50.4%) and just sixty years later, this had risen to 78.9%, almost trebling the urban population from 10.6 million to 28.2 million. Therefore, this study will provide deeper insights into the mechanisms driving individuals' migration choices which manifested themselves in the form of rapid urbanisation. It will address such questions as; if migrants were responsive to wage differentials, why did rural-urban migration peak when agricultural wages were high? What impact did the growing railway network have on migration flows? Did migration tend to occur within clearly defined boundaries? What does this tell us about individuals' sense of place?This study will be conducted in two strands and the first will consider individuals' incentives to migrate and wage differentials - to be transcribed from Board of Trade wage surveys - while the second will analyse migrants' capacity to move. In addition to analysing the effect of straight-line distance on migration flows over time and space, the transport network as it existed in 1831 and 1911 will be analysed thanks to a collaboration with my proposed mentor Dr Leigh Shaw-Taylor and his project 'Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development in England and Wales c. 1670-1911'.Analysing individuals' incentives to migrate in the context of factors limiting their capacity to do so allows radically new questions to be asked. Was time a more significant determinant of migrants' destination than distance once wage differentials are accounted for? Did this change as the network evolved? In order to account for migrants' constrained choice of destination, an algorithm developed with colleagues at MIT as part of my PhD will be used to identify migration fields - regions in which the number of moves within them was maximised and the number of moves between them was minimised. How did these regions shape individuals' choice of destination? By analysing the relationship between migrants' assessment of the risks and returns of leaving their parish of birth in the context of competing alternatives, the mechanisms which led to urbanisation and rural depopulation can be better understood and serve as a benchmark for further analyses of urbanisation in both the past and present.The outputs will be delivered by depositing the enriched sources with the UK Data Archive and by journal articles, a monograph, academic presentations, workshops for potential users and a small conference, publicising the project and encouraging new analyses. Outside academia online resources will be developed for schools, family/amateur historians and the public. These online tools will facilitate studies of migration which fulfills national curriculum requirements for projects in local history and geography in Key Stages 2-4.