The effect of terrorism on public attitudes and individual well-being in Great Britain

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The fight against terrorism has long been a top priority for Western democracies, intensified by recent attacks in Paris, London, Berlin and Madrid. Yet, despite continued experience of terrorist violence, researchers and government still do not know the true cost of the violence. Existing studies of the 'costs' of terrorism are commissioned by governments to look at the financial losses suffered by cities in the aftermath, but research on the effects of terrorism on public attitudes and individual well-being is in its infancy. This is partly because, unlike the direct costs of terrorism (such as reduction in national output), the indirect ones (such as aversion to outgroups or increased fear and anxiety) are difficult to measure.Against this background, the proposed project seeks to examine whether and how terrorism has shaped public sentiments and subjective well-being (SWB) in Great Britain over the period 1990-2018. As of yet, there are no studies that systemically analyse the consequences of terrorism across different outcomes, several terrorism incidents and for a long period of time. With its long history of battling terrorism within its borders -- with 431 attacks and 2043 victims recorded since 1990 -- Great Britain provides a laboratory for understanding and evaluating the indirect costs of terrorism over a long time horizon. The proposed project also seeks to contribute to the literature by investigating the conditionality of the terrorism effects upon the context surrounding the attacks. While past studies highlight that the effects of political violence are complex and largely context-specific, there is surprisingly very little research on the contextual factors. We will take advantage of the heterogeneity of the terrorist attacks in Great Britain -- in terms of local attributes, timing, scale and type of perpetrators and victims -- to provide a comprehensive analysis of the conditions under which exposure to terrorism can trigger public responses and influence SWB. In addition, we will explore whether the amount of reporting and the presentation of frames by political elites and the media can amplify some of the effects or minimize others.To answer our research questions, we will: (i) employ and analyse key ESRC-funded data on public attitudes and SWB from the British Household Panel Survey, Understanding Society, the British Election Study, and the European Social Survey, and other secondary data sources; (ii) leverage fine-grained information on all geo-coded attacks perpetrated in Great Britain by several types of actors since 1970; and, (iii) employ cutting-edge methods which are designed to identify causal effects, including a quasi-experimental approach that exploits exogenous variation in the variables of interest.Our research aims to inform strategic thinking and enable more effective policy intervention. In particular, the results will be used by the Home Office to raise awareness about the indirect effects of terrorism and help the UK government develop appropriate strategies to minimize its costs. Our findings can also have tangible benefits for other stakeholders who are interested in mitigating the negative societal consequences of terrorism (e.g., the NATO and the International Institute for Strategic Studies). Finally, our findings can stimulate a wider public debate about alternative counter-terrorism policies and the language used by political leaders and the media when referring to terrorist events.