The effect of terrorism on public attitudes and individual well-being in Great Britain

恐怖主义对英国公众态度和个人福祉的影响

• 批准号: ES/V002333/1
• 负责人: Vincenzo Bove
• 金额: $ 30.11万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV002333%2F1
• 关键词: effect; terrorism; public; attitudes; individual

The fight against terrorism has long been a top priority for Western democracies, intensified by recent attacks in Paris, London, Berlin and Madrid. Yet, despite continued experience of terrorist violence, researchers and government still do not know the true cost of the violence. Existing studies of the 'costs' of terrorism are commissioned by governments to look at the financial losses suffered by cities in the aftermath, but research on the effects of terrorism on public attitudes and individual well-being is in its infancy. This is partly because, unlike the direct costs of terrorism (such as reduction in national output), the indirect ones (such as aversion to outgroups or increased fear and anxiety) are difficult to measure.Against this background, the proposed project seeks to examine whether and how terrorism has shaped public sentiments and subjective well-being (SWB) in Great Britain over the period 1990-2018. As of yet, there are no studies that systemically analyse the consequences of terrorism across different outcomes, several terrorism incidents and for a long period of time. With its long history of battling terrorism within its borders -- with 431 attacks and 2043 victims recorded since 1990 -- Great Britain provides a laboratory for understanding and evaluating the indirect costs of terrorism over a long time horizon. The proposed project also seeks to contribute to the literature by investigating the conditionality of the terrorism effects upon the context surrounding the attacks. While past studies highlight that the effects of political violence are complex and largely context-specific, there is surprisingly very little research on the contextual factors. We will take advantage of the heterogeneity of the terrorist attacks in Great Britain -- in terms of local attributes, timing, scale and type of perpetrators and victims -- to provide a comprehensive analysis of the conditions under which exposure to terrorism can trigger public responses and influence SWB. In addition, we will explore whether the amount of reporting and the presentation of frames by political elites and the media can amplify some of the effects or minimize others.To answer our research questions, we will: (i) employ and analyse key ESRC-funded data on public attitudes and SWB from the British Household Panel Survey, Understanding Society, the British Election Study, and the European Social Survey, and other secondary data sources; (ii) leverage fine-grained information on all geo-coded attacks perpetrated in Great Britain by several types of actors since 1970; and, (iii) employ cutting-edge methods which are designed to identify causal effects, including a quasi-experimental approach that exploits exogenous variation in the variables of interest.Our research aims to inform strategic thinking and enable more effective policy intervention. In particular, the results will be used by the Home Office to raise awareness about the indirect effects of terrorism and help the UK government develop appropriate strategies to minimize its costs. Our findings can also have tangible benefits for other stakeholders who are interested in mitigating the negative societal consequences of terrorism (e.g., the NATO and the International Institute for Strategic Studies). Finally, our findings can stimulate a wider public debate about alternative counter-terrorism policies and the language used by political leaders and the media when referring to terrorist events.

打击恐怖主义长期以来一直是西方民主国家的首要任务，最近发生在巴黎、伦敦、柏林和马德里的袭击事件使这一任务更加突出。然而，尽管恐怖主义暴力事件不断发生，研究人员和政府仍然不知道暴力的真正代价。现有的关于恐怖主义“成本”的研究是由政府委托进行的，目的是研究恐怖主义对城市造成的经济损失，但关于恐怖主义对公众态度和个人福祉的影响的研究还处于起步阶段。这部分是因为，不像恐怖主义的直接成本（如减少国民生产总值），间接的（如厌恶外群体或增加恐惧和焦虑）是难以衡量的。在这种背景下，拟议的项目旨在研究恐怖主义是否以及如何塑造公众情绪和主观幸福感（SWB）在英国在1990年至2018年期间。到目前为止，还没有研究系统地分析恐怖主义在不同结果、几起恐怖主义事件和很长一段时间内的后果。大不列颠有着在其境内打击恐怖主义的悠久历史----自1990年以来记录了431起袭击事件和2 043名受害者----为了解和评估长期恐怖主义的间接代价提供了一个实验室。拟议的项目还试图通过调查恐怖主义影响对袭击背景的制约，为文献作出贡献。虽然过去的研究强调，政治暴力的影响是复杂的，在很大程度上是特定的背景下，有令人惊讶的是，很少有研究的背景因素。我们将利用在英国的恐怖袭击的异质性-在当地属性，时间，规模和类型的肇事者和受害者-提供一个全面的分析条件下，暴露于恐怖主义可以触发公众的反应和影响主观幸福感。此外，我们将探讨政治精英和媒体的报道量和框架呈现是否会放大或缩小某些影响。为了回答我们的研究问题，我们将：（i）采用和分析由经济及社会研究委员会资助的英国住户专题调查、理解社会、英国选举研究和欧洲社会调查中有关公众态度和主观幸福感的主要数据，（ii）利用自1970年以来由几种类型的参与者在英国犯下的所有地理编码攻击的细粒度信息;以及，（iii）采用旨在确定因果效应的尖端方法，包括准-一种利用感兴趣的变量的外源变化的实验方法。我们的研究旨在为战略思维提供信息，并使更有效的政策干预。特别是，内政部将利用调查结果来提高人们对恐怖主义间接影响的认识，并帮助英国政府制定适当的战略，以尽量减少其成本。我们的研究结果也可以为其他有兴趣减轻恐怖主义负面社会后果的利益攸关方带来切实利益（例如，北约和国际战略研究所）。最后，我们的研究结果可以激发更广泛的公众辩论，讨论替代性反恐政策以及政治领导人和媒体在提及恐怖主义事件时使用的语言。

项目成果

What's left after right-wing extremism? The effects on political orientation

右翼极端主义之后还剩下什么？

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: European Journal of Political Research
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: Pickard H

Are the Effects of Terrorism Short-Lived?

• DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000352
• 发表时间: 2024-04-01
• 期刊: BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Bove，Vincenzo;Efthyvoulou，Georgios;Pickard，Harry
• 通讯作者: Pickard，Harry