Brexit Uncertainty and the Northern Ireland Protocol: The consequences for Northern Ireland firms and their trade within the UK's Internal Market

英国脱欧的不确定性和北爱尔兰协议:对北爱尔兰公司及其在英国内部市场内的贸易的影响

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    ES/V004727/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 77.39万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2021 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    未结题

项目摘要

Following the decision of the UK to leave the European Union, UK firms and workers have faced a period of economic uncertainty. Even though the UK departed at the end of January 2020, uncertainty remains, and this is particularly so for businesses in Northern Ireland (NI). Our research is aimed at studying two particular aspects of Brexit uncertainty and their impact on Northern Ireland.Firms' production and exporting decisions might have been discouraged by the absence of clear information about future trading relations within the UK, between NI and Great Britain (GB), and externally with the EU and third countries. For businesses in NI a particular and additional form of uncertainty concerned the resolution of the Irish border issue - how to ensure that NI is included in the UK custom territory while avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This almost intractable issue finally led to the inclusion of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement, which de facto moved the border between the EU and the UK to the Irish Sea. The uncertainty in the negotiations, the uncertainty about how the Protocol will be operationalised, means that trade relations between NI and GB will have been affected and will continue to be affected. There will be direct effects from customs checks and possibly tariffs imposed on some goods transiting from GB to NI, and indirect effects from the uncertainty. In the first part of our research we will examine how the uncertainty about the Irish border, in terms of the potential changes to the costs of trade with Great Britain from tariff and regulatory misalignment between the EU (and therefore NI) and GB, affected trade relations for firms based in Northern Ireland with Great Britain. In turn, we will examine how these changes varied depending on underlying firm characteristics such as productivity and foreign ownership. This will be undertaken in two phases - first focusing on the impact of uncertainty following the 2016 referendum up to the Brexit date (January 2020), and second, the impact following the UK's departure from the EU. We will also explore the extent of any trade by third countries to the UK, which may be diverted via NI, in order to avoid higher UK tariffs.In the second part of our research we will examine how Brexit uncertainty might have affected NI and UK firms through changes in the availability of workers, in particular EU nationals, in the local labour market where firms operate. The potential post-Brexit working and residence restrictions for non-UK citizens, as well as the sterling depreciation and other negative macroeconomic consequences of Brexit, might have affected the decision of EU migrants to remain in the UK, or to relocate to other EU countries in search of a more secure living and job environment. EU migrants might be particularly sensitive to Brexit uncertainty, as they are, on average, more educated, younger and located in the UK primarily for work related reasons (as opposed to family reasons). The changing composition of the UK labour force could impact negatively on firms, as drawing workers from a wider pool provides diverse skills and can offer resilience against negative economic shocks. There may be differential effects in NI relative to GB, partly because the Withdrawal Agreement establishes a different economic relationship between the EU and NI, and between GB and NI, and also because the share of EU migrants in NI is larger than the corresponding share in GB. In this second part, therefore, we will study how Brexit uncertainty has affected firms through migration. We will begin by examining how Brexit uncertainty affected firms' ability in filling vacancies. We will then examine how Brexit has affected the composition of the labour market in which firms operate, and finally, evaluate the impact of changes in such workforce composition on firms with a primary focus on their productivity.
在英国决定离开欧盟后,英国企业和工人面临着一段经济不确定性时期。尽管英国于2020年1月底退出欧盟,但不确定性依然存在,对于北方爱尔兰(NI)的企业来说尤其如此。我们的研究旨在研究英国脱欧不确定性的两个特定方面及其对北方爱尔兰的影响。企业的生产和出口决策可能会因缺乏有关英国内部、北爱尔兰与英国之间以及外部与欧盟和第三国之间未来贸易关系的明确信息而受到阻碍。对于北爱尔兰的企业来说,一个特殊的和额外的不确定性形式涉及爱尔兰边境问题的解决-如何确保北爱尔兰被纳入英国关税领土,同时避免北方爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国之间的硬边界。这一几乎难以解决的问题最终导致了《退出协议》中加入了《北方爱尔兰议定书》,该议定书事实上将欧盟与英国的边界移到了爱尔兰海。谈判中的不确定性,以及议定书如何实施的不确定性,意味着北爱尔兰和英国之间的贸易关系将受到影响,并将继续受到影响。海关检查和可能对从GB过境到NI的一些货物征收的关税将产生直接影响,以及不确定性的间接影响。在我们的研究的第一部分,我们将研究如何爱尔兰边境的不确定性,在与英国的贸易成本的潜在变化,从关税和监管不一致之间的欧盟(因此NI)和GB,影响贸易关系的公司设在北方爱尔兰与英国。反过来,我们将研究这些变化是如何根据企业的基本特征,如生产率和外国所有权而变化的。这将分两个阶段进行-首先关注2016年公投后至英国脱欧日期(2020年1月)的不确定性的影响,其次是英国脱离欧盟后的影响。我们还将探讨第三国对英国的任何贸易的程度,这些贸易可能会通过北爱尔兰转移,以避免英国更高的关税。在我们研究的第二部分,我们将研究英国退欧的不确定性如何通过企业运营的当地劳动力市场上工人,特别是欧盟国民的可用性的变化来影响北爱尔兰和英国企业。英国脱欧后对非英国公民的工作和居住限制,以及英镑贬值和英国脱欧的其他负面宏观经济后果,可能会影响欧盟移民留在英国的决定,或迁往其他欧盟国家寻求更安全的生活和工作环境。欧盟移民可能对英国脱欧的不确定性特别敏感,因为他们平均受教育程度更高,更年轻,主要出于工作原因(而不是家庭原因)而留在英国。英国劳动力构成的变化可能会对企业产生负面影响,因为从更广泛的人才库中吸引工人可以提供多样化的技能,并可以提供应对负面经济冲击的弹性。可能有不同的影响,在NI相对于GB,部分原因是退出协议建立了不同的经济关系之间的欧盟和NI,GB和NI之间,也因为欧盟移民的份额在NI大于相应的份额在GB。因此,在第二部分中,我们将研究英国退欧的不确定性如何通过移民影响企业。我们将开始研究英国退欧的不确定性如何影响公司填补空缺的能力。然后,我们将研究英国脱欧如何影响企业经营的劳动力市场的构成,最后,评估这种劳动力构成的变化对企业的影响,主要关注其生产力。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(3)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Written evidence to the NI Affairs Committee: Brexit and the NI Protocol
向 NI 事务委员会提交的书面证据:英国脱欧和 NI 协议
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    UK Trade Policy Observatory
  • 通讯作者:
    UK Trade Policy Observatory
Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors
识别敏感和战略部门
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Gasiorek, M
  • 通讯作者:
    Gasiorek, M
The impact on Northern Ireland arising from the UK's exit from the EU: Partial Equilibrium Modelling
英国脱欧对北爱尔兰的影响:部分均衡模型
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Gasiorek,M
  • 通讯作者:
    Gasiorek,M
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Michael Gasiorek其他文献

The EU-Med partnership and rules of origin
欧盟-地中海伙伴关系和原产地规则
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2003
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    P. Augier;Michael Gasiorek
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Gasiorek
Global Propagation of the U.S.-China Trade War *
中美贸易战的全球传播*
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Minkyu Son;Meredith Crowley;Michael Gasiorek;Christopher Rauh;Gabriella Santangelo
  • 通讯作者:
    Gabriella Santangelo
Multilateralising Regionalism: Relaxing the Rules of Origin Or Can Those Pecs Be Flexed?
多边区域主义:放宽原产地规则还是可以调整这些胸肌?
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2007
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    P. Augier;Michael Gasiorek;Charles Lai
  • 通讯作者:
    Charles Lai
The effects of leaving the EU on UK trade
离开欧盟对英国贸易的影响
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Michael Gasiorek;Nicolò Tamberi
  • 通讯作者:
    Nicolò Tamberi
The competition effects of the Single Market in Europe
欧洲单一市场的竞争效应
  • DOI:
    10.1111/1468-0327.00038
  • 发表时间:
    1998
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.5
  • 作者:
    C. Allen;Michael Gasiorek;Alasdair Smith
  • 通讯作者:
    Alasdair Smith

Michael Gasiorek的其他文献

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