Quantifying and Simulating the Impact of Social Distancing Policies on Firm-Level Productivity

量化和模拟社交距离政策对企业生产力的影响

• 批准号: ES/V012754/1
• 负责人: Thiemo Fetzer
• 金额: $ 13.76万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV012754%2F1
• 关键词: Quantifying; Simulating; Impact; Social; Distancing

This project analyzes the impact of social distancing policies in the workplace in the UK on firm- and organization level productivity. The economic cost are likely to be heterogeneous across firms and sectors as well as across regions as space use intensities vary systematically across the UK, giving rise to the possibility of COVID19 to significantly exacerbate regional economic inequalities raising the necessity to develop more cost-effective and targeted support measures to firms. To do so, the project will produce a novel data product jointly with the ONS to be subsequently hosted and analyzed on the ONS Secure Research Service. This data product will bring together detailed information on the physical make up of the population of the UK's premises in which economic activity takes place along with detailed information on employment, turnover and producivity at the premise level by combining the ONS's Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) with the Valuation Office Agency business rates valuation lists of physical premises. The data product is then subsequently studied through the lense of an economic model that will incorporate "physical space" as a factor of production in the estimation of production functions and empirically calibrate an already developed theoretical model. The empirically disciplined model will both help quantify the economic impact of the existing social distancing policies as well as allow the simulation of the economic cost of counterfactual social distancing policies across firms, sectors and regions of the UK helping identify policies that may be effective in reducing both the economic impact while mtaintaining disease containmentment objectives.

该项目分析了英国工作场所的社会距离政策对公司和组织层面生产力的影响。由于英国各地的空间使用强度存在系统性差异，经济成本可能会因公司和行业以及地区而异，从而导致COVID 19有可能严重加剧地区经济不平等，因此有必要为公司制定更具成本效益和针对性的支持措施。为此，该项目将与ONS联合开发一种新的数据产品，随后将在ONS安全研究服务上进行托管和分析。这一数据产品将汇集沿着发生经济活动的联合王国房地人口实际构成的详细信息，以及房地层面就业、营业额和生产率的详细信息，方法是将国家统计局的部门间商业登记册与估价办公室机构的实体房地商业费率估价清单相结合。然后，通过将“物理空间”作为生产要素纳入生产函数估算的经济模型的建模，对数据产品进行研究，并根据经验对已经开发的理论模型进行校准。经验纪律的模型将有助于量化现有的社会距离政策的经济影响，以及允许模拟反事实的社会距离政策的经济成本跨公司，部门和地区的英国帮助确定政策，可能是有效的，同时保持疾病控制的目标，以减少经济影响。