Using linked Magistrates and Crown Court data to explore defendant appearance(s) over time: specialisation, escalation or de-escalation?

被告进入治安法庭或刑事法庭的法庭，他们将来会回来吗？下一次会是更严重的犯罪吗？通过跟踪被告离开法庭后的时间，我们将发现被告在新案件中返回法庭的比率。该研究将首次使用国家统计局（ONS）提供的令人兴奋的新关联行政数据集，这将使我们能够将单个被告的案件联系起来，并跟踪案件从治安法官转移到刑事法院的过程。返回的被告的犯罪生涯将遵循三种轨迹之一。被告可能会在索引案件和重复案件中因相同的罪行返回法院，表现出专业化的概念，其中罪犯将在其犯罪生涯中犯下相同类型的罪行（Paternoster et al. 1998; A. Piquero等人，1999年）。第二，被告可能会因为比前一个案件更严重或不那么严重的罪行而回到法庭，分别表现出升级或降级的轨迹（Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber，1996）。该项目将首先调查被告返回法庭的风险。然后，这将扩大到确定单独事件的风险，即被告因同一类型的犯罪或因不同的犯罪在一个或多或少严重的案件中返回，反映被告犯罪生涯的轨迹。同时，被告特征的影响，如年龄和性别，以及索引案件的特征，如抗辩和结果，将被控制和确定。在了解被告将返回法院的风险，公共服务，如警察，缓刑和监狱服务，可以在监测和预防犯罪方面做出明智和基于证据的决定。这是在《弱势分娩母亲和经常性护理程序：最终总结报告》（Broadhurst et al. 2017）出版后已经看到的结果，该报告证明了这些方法从根本上改变预防服务前景的潜力。通过应用这些方法，使其适应刑事司法服务并进一步推广，将在治安法院和刑事法院产生类似的见解。

A defendant enters the court room at the magistrates' or Crown Courts, will they be back some time in future? Will the next time be for a more serious crime? By following defendants in the time after they leave the court from one case, we will discover the rate that defendants return to the courts in a new case. The research will use the exciting new linked administrative datasets, available from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for the first time, which will enable us to connect cases for a single defendant and follow the cases as they move from the magistrates' to the Crown Courts.The criminal career of the returning defendants will follow one of three trajectories. The defendant may return to the courts for the same offense in both the index case and the repeat case, exhibiting the notion of specialisation, where a criminal will commit the same type offense in their criminal career (Paternoster et al. 1998; A. Piquero et al. 1999). Secondly, the defendant may return to the courts for an offense that is more or less serious than in the previous case, exhibiting a trajectory of escalation or de-escalation respectively (Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1996).Through the application of methods from survival and recurrent event analysis. The project will first investigate the risk that defendants will return to the courts. Then this will extend to determine the risk for the separate events whereby a defendant returns for the same type of offence, or for a different offence in a case that is more or less serious, reflecting the trajectories in the defendants' criminal career. In conjunction, the influence of the defendants characteristics, such as age and gender, and characteristics from the index case, such as plea and outcome, will be controlled for and determined.In understanding the risk that a defendant will return to the courts, public services such as the police, probation and prison services can make informed and evidence based decisions in regards to monitoring and crime prevention. This an outcome that has already been seen following the publication of 'Vulnerable births mothers and recurrent care proceedings: Final summary report' (Broadhurst et al. 2017), which demonstrated the potential of these methods to fundamentally change the outlook of preventative services. Through the application of these methods, adapting them to the criminal justice service and taking them further will produce similar insights within the magistrates' and Crown Courts.